Turkey’s emergence in the 21st century as a Middle Eastern power has been in the making for the last decade, but only fully crystallized in the wake of the “Arab Awakenings” this year. Unlike Iran and Saudi Arabia that actively supported counter-protest movements to deflect attention away from their own domestic shortcomings, Turkey’s vibrant civil society nudged the government onto the side of the newly emerging Arab democratic movements. Turkey has earned a reputation under the Justice and Development Party (AKP) as being a pragmatic and active actor in the Middle East. Despite the successes of AKP’s foreign policy in the last decade in opening new markets and expanding into its neighborhood through a policy of “zero problems with neighbors,” the Arab spring of 2011 has forced Ankara to confront the new realities of the Middle East. Ankara is now in need of a new foreign policy, post-Arab awakenings.
Thursday, December 29, 2011
Tunisia: There’s Still Hope for Democracy Because The Majority Doesn’t Want Islamism
Is Tunisia, the Arab world’s historically most moderate country in social and intellectual terms, headed for Islamism or some kind of difficult but democratic future? I want to rethink my conclusions on this point. Or is it just the timeline that needs to be extended? It should be stressed that Tunisia has more prospects for achieving democracy and avoiding radical Islamism than do Egypt or Libya. In Egypt, 60 percent of the vote was obtained by the Muslim Brotherhood and Salafists in the first round, with claims of up to 75 percent in the second round. Excluding Christian voters, that means somewhere between two-thirds and 80 percent of Egyptian Muslims support radical Islamist parties. Only the army, which is eager to suppress moderates but would rather make deals than fight the Islamists, stands in the way of radicalization. In Libya, the political situation is far less clear but radicals have the guns while tribal and regional conflicts are likely to promote conflict and extremism.
Turkish-US Relations in 2011 and Beyond: There May be Trouble Ahead
The year 2011 saw a “regression toward the mean” in Turkey’s relation with the United States. 2010 had the deadly Israeli flotilla raid, the misfired Iranian nuclear negotiations, and the WikiLeaks’ revelations about the negative views held by some American diplomats regarding Turkey’s leaders who were described as dangerous extremists, megalomaniacal, and corrupt. The Turkey-U.S relationship has rebounded nicely in 2011, with Ankara and Washington collaborating on a range of issues. But danger signs abound beneath the surface, suggesting that 2012 and beyond might not be as rosy.
A Very Peaceful Russian Revolt
The calls by the “moderate left” for passively following behind the liberals are supposedly based on the need to “work among the people”, to go where the masses are. But how, and with whom, are the forces of the left to set out after these ardently pursued masses? With badly printed leaflets full of abstract slogans?
The December outburst of street protest in Russia was the natural result of a growing discontent which for several years had been building up but which had not found a means of expression. Nevertheless, it would have been hard to predict that a crisis would break out over the results of elections to the essentially decorative State Duma, which has no power (its members, including the opposition, are mere puppets of the administration). Just a few weeks ago, when I discussed the looming political crisis with colleagues at our institute, we could not identify what might serve as the detonator for an explosion. The general conclusion to which participants in the discussion came was that the pretext for mass protests would be something ridiculous, some vulgar everyday transgression by the authorities.
The December outburst of street protest in Russia was the natural result of a growing discontent which for several years had been building up but which had not found a means of expression. Nevertheless, it would have been hard to predict that a crisis would break out over the results of elections to the essentially decorative State Duma, which has no power (its members, including the opposition, are mere puppets of the administration). Just a few weeks ago, when I discussed the looming political crisis with colleagues at our institute, we could not identify what might serve as the detonator for an explosion. The general conclusion to which participants in the discussion came was that the pretext for mass protests would be something ridiculous, some vulgar everyday transgression by the authorities.
UK prepares emergency measures for euro collapse to prevent an influx of people and money
Ministers are considering draconian plans to prevent a flood of money and people heading to Britain from Europe if the ailing single currency collapses. Experts fear that the collapse of the euro would lead to the widespread movement of both people and money – with potentially damaging consequences for Britain if left unchecked. The Treasury has drawn up contingency plans to prevent investors shifting huge sums of cash from the Eurozone to Britain – amid fears it could lead to a surge in the value of the Pound.
Chinese Politburo’s Official Statement: The West tries out old tricks in Russia
Long before the State Duma elections of Dec 4, the ultra-rightist and liberal mass media, collaborating with anti-Russian elements in the West, forecast that the ruling United Russia party would suffer a serious defeat.
They organized all sorts of sociological surveys to support this thoroughly planned campaign and to push their “predictions” on the “crisis” facing Russian leaders and “sharply declining rating” of Prime Minister Vladimir Putin and President Dmitry Medvedev. The anti-Putin campaign became really vociferous when the United Russia congress officially and unanimously approved Putin as its nominee for the presidential election in March 2012. It is true that the election results showed the correlation of political forces and sentiments in Russia, which is experiencing the difficult strategic consequences of the disintegration of the erstwhile Soviet Union and the impact of the global economic crisis.
They organized all sorts of sociological surveys to support this thoroughly planned campaign and to push their “predictions” on the “crisis” facing Russian leaders and “sharply declining rating” of Prime Minister Vladimir Putin and President Dmitry Medvedev. The anti-Putin campaign became really vociferous when the United Russia congress officially and unanimously approved Putin as its nominee for the presidential election in March 2012. It is true that the election results showed the correlation of political forces and sentiments in Russia, which is experiencing the difficult strategic consequences of the disintegration of the erstwhile Soviet Union and the impact of the global economic crisis.
Chávez denuncia plan de la derecha para cantar fraude en presidenciales de 2012
El presidente de la República, Hugo Chávez, denunció este miércoles que la derecha venezolana y sus asesores de Estados Unidos adelantan un plan para cantar fraude en las elecciones presidenciales del 7 de octubre de 2012 que, además de desconocer la victoria de la Revolución, provocaría un clima de violencia en el país. “Lo que está ocurriendo en Rusia (desconocimiento de resultados de elecciones parlamentarias) lo van a tratar de aplicar aquí, porque esta gente (derecha) sabe que no van a poder llegar a Miraflores por la vía electoral, no van a poder ganar las elecciones presidenciales del 7 de octubre, es política y matemáticamente imposible que lo logren”, dijo Chávez Frías, durante el acto de de salutación de fin de año a las unidades militares de la Fuerza Armada Nacional Bolivariana, en Fuerte Tiuna, Caracas.
Intelligence stratégique et notation financière: l’interview de Guy Gweth dans “Les Afriques”
Les acteurs politiques auraient-ils oublié que la notation financière est la fille aînée de l’investigation économique et financière? C’est en réactivant cette filiation technique que Guy Gweth, expert en intelligence économique et stratégique chez Knowdys, décrypte les grands enjeux, les vraies ficelles et l’impact réel de la notation financière sur les Etats, les entreprises et les collectivités locales. Voici l’intégralité de son interview parue le 24/11/11 dans l’hebdomadaire financier Les Afriques, n°180, page 20.
Les Afriques: Les partisans de la notation disent qu’elle sert à faire baisser les coûts d’intermédiation dans par exemple les emprunts obligatoires. Votre avis ?
Intelligence économique en RDC | Le ministre de l’économie suit les alertes de KNOWDYS
Depuis 2010, la République démocratique du Congo (RDC) fait partie des 11 pays qui bénéficient des alertes de KNOWDYS (24h/24, 7j/7) sur les marchés des matières premières. Il a fallu attendre la nomination de Jean-Pierre Daruwezi, ancien chef des Renseignements congolais, au poste de ministre de l’économie, pour voir un début d’application des préconisations de l’agence africaine d’intelligence économique visant à sécuriser l’approvisionnement en denrées alimentaires dans ce pays.
Chine-Afrique : les meilleurs succès de 2011
Vu de Chine, les meilleurs succès de la coopération sino-africaine en 2011 tiennent en quatre points relayés par l’agence Chine Information : l’aide à la sécurité alimentaire durable (1), le renforcement de l’économie africaine face à la crise de la zone Euro (2), la lutte contre le changement climatique (3) et la construction du principal stade de la CAN 2012 au Gabon (4).
…
Que gagne la France à aider l’Afrique ?
C’est à juste titre qu’en cette fin d’année 2011, de nombreux sénateurs français s’inquiètent de la capacité de Paris à honorer ses engagements entre 2012 et 2015 en matière d’aide publique du développement. […] Mais les mesures pour endiguer la déréglementation ou déjouer les avantages tirés des paradis fiscaux ou encore la prise de pertes par les banques qui ont fait des arbitrages hasardeux sur des marchés spéculatifs ne sont toujours pas à l’ordre du jour…
Wednesday, December 28, 2011
Senegal’s Presidential Elections: two months out
Senegal will hold presidential elections on February 26, pitting incumbent President Abdoulaye Wade against an emboldened but divided opposition. The elections could be quite bitterly contested. On Friday, Wade officially accepted the nomination of his party, but both inside and outside the country, his candidacy is provoking condemnation. Critics argue that the president, who is nearing the end of his second term, should not run again; Wade argues that because two-term limits for the presidency were introduced only after his first term began, he is eligible for one more term. I do not anticipate that any legal obstacle – including a ruling by the country’s courts – will prevent Wade from running, but the level of domestic and international outcry is significant. Senegal is not headed for chaos, in my view, but the country’s stability could be shaken in the months to come.
Polisario- Sahel: les dessous de l’agacement de Bamako
Le coup de gueule des autorités maliennes contre le Polisario n’a pas surpris beaucoup de monde, et en particulier les spécialistes Occidentaux qui scrutent ce qui se passe au Sahel. L’exaspération de Bamako contre le Polisario est l’aboutissement de plusieurs mois d’agitation, dans le nord malien, de dizaines de combattants du Front anti-marocain qui lutte, avec le soutien de l’Algérie, pour l’indépendance de la région du Sahara Occidental. La dernière incursion du Polisario au Mali, qui a fait un mort et plusieurs personnes enlevées, a été l’infiltration de trop. Il n’en fallait pas plus pour que Bamako, qui a déjà retiré il y a deux ans sa reconnaissance de la RASD, la république autoproclamée par le Polisario, décide de mettre fin à ce qu’il considère comme des opérations de rodéo sur son territoire.
Colombia: The Soul Mates
Colombia is using diplomacy to entice a hostile leftist government in Venezuela to help weaken FARC. The leftist rebels have about half their forces operating along the 2,850 kilometers long Venezuelan border (most of the rest use the Panama or Ecuador borders). Over the past few years, things have been changing along the Venezuelan border as police on the Venezuelan side increase their pressure on the drug smugglers, and any leftist rebels that will not behave. The civilians on the Venezuelan side are in an uproar about the violence, and the government has to act, or face a popular uprising. The Venezuelan president and senior officials are sympathetic to the political goals of FARC (and the smaller ELN), but not the gangster methods the two organizations use inside Venezuela. FARC and ELN have tried to eliminate the bad behavior of their gunmen in Venezuela. But this is often not enough, because FARC and ELN are recognized as international outlaws (because of connections with drug gangs) and Venezuela has to limit official cooperation.
Tensions Grow Between Hamas And Syria
Middle Eastern media is reporting on what are described as growing tensions between Hamas and the Syrian regime as well as assertions of an unusual criticism of Global Muslim Brotherhood leader Youssef Qaradawi by a Hamas political leader. According to a report on the Albawaba website:
US cannot rely on Pakistan for counterterrorism operations
In CJ Radin's recent Threat Matrix report on US counterterrorism (CT) strategy, one area that stood out was the Obama administration's emphasis on partnering with Pakistan to defeat al Qaeda and allied terror groups, as set forth below in the "National Strategy for Counterterrorism":
Adbullah Azzam Brigades denies responsibility for Damascus suicide attacks
The Abdullah Azzam Brigades, an affiliate of al Qaeda in Iraq which operates throughout the Middle East, has denied all involvement in the recent suicide attack in the Syrian capital that killed 40 people. The terror group accused the Syrian government of attempting to deflect attention from its brutal crackdown on protesters that has killed more than 5,000 people. The terror group denied its involvement in the twin suicide attacks in Damascus that targeted security headquarters on Dec. 23. More than 40 people were reported killed and scores more were wounded in the blasts. The Syrian government immediately blamed al Qaeda, but no group claimed credit for the attack.
Iran threatens to stop Gulf oil if sanctions widened
Iran has threatened to stop the flow of oil through the Strait of Hormuz if foreign sanctions were imposed on its crude exports over its nuclear ambitions, a move that could trigger military conflict with economies dependent on Gulf oil. Western tensions with Iran have increased since a November 8 report by the UN nuclear watchdog saying Tehran appears to have worked on designing an atom bomb and may still be pursuing research to that end. Iran strongly denies this and says it is developing nuclear energy for peaceful purposes. Iran has defiantly expanded nuclear activity despite four rounds of UN sanctions meted out since 2006 over its refusal to suspend sensitive uranium enrichment and open up to UN nuclear inspectors and investigators. Many diplomats and analysts believe only sanctions targeting Iran's lifeblood oil sector might be painful enough to make it change course, but Russia and China - big trade partners of Tehran - have blocked such a move at the United Nations.
China’s Noisy Subs Get Busier - And Easier to Track
The military’s latest secret assessment of China’s rapidly modernizing submarines has good news and bad news for the U.S. Navy. On one hand, the roughly 60 submarines in the People’s Liberation Army Navy (PLAN) fleet are spending more and more time on combat-ready patrols — signaling China’s increasing naval competence and growing seriousness about influencing the western Pacific Ocean. On the other hand, the flurry of undersea activity gives American forces more opportunities to tail and examine Chinese subs. And U.S. analysts discovered a silver lining in the gathering strategic storm clouds. Chinese submarines are a hell of a lot noisier than anyone expected. The sound you hear is the Pacific balance of power tipping in Washington’s favor.
How Mexico’s Drug Cartels Stay Networked
Arranging drug sales on a cellphone, cryptic email or even a pager? That’s strictly for the small-time dealer. If you’re a Mexican drug cartel, you have your own radio network. Since 2006, the cartels have maintained an encrypted DIY radio network that stretches across nearly all 31 Mexican states, even down south into Guatemala. The communications infrastructure of the narco-gangs that have turned Mexico into a gangster’s paradise consists of “professional-grade” radio antennas, signal relays and simple handheld radios that cost “millions of dollars” — and which the Mexican authorities haven’t been able to shut down. If it sounds like a military-grade communications apparatus, it should. The notorious Zetas, formerly the enforcers for the Gulf Cartel and now its chief rival, were born out of Mexican Special Forces.
Aftershock Video of the Veracruz Bus Attack
A toll of 16 people left for dead by sicarios in the north of the Mexican state of Veracruz. The attacks occurred near the border of Tamaulipas in the municipalities of Pánuco and Tantoyuca.
"It is presumed that buses were intercepted at dawn at different times," said the spokesman of the Government of Veracruz, Gina Domínguez. "They are interrogating witnesses to find out what was the motive that led the attack on these buses." he added.
Governor Javier Duarte condemned the acts and ordered reinforced surveillance in the northern part of the state to provide greater protection to the Veracruz in the region. The Chief Executive sent his condolences to the families of the victims and declared his determination to continue towards establishing tranquility for the inhabitants.
"It is presumed that buses were intercepted at dawn at different times," said the spokesman of the Government of Veracruz, Gina Domínguez. "They are interrogating witnesses to find out what was the motive that led the attack on these buses." he added.
Governor Javier Duarte condemned the acts and ordered reinforced surveillance in the northern part of the state to provide greater protection to the Veracruz in the region. The Chief Executive sent his condolences to the families of the victims and declared his determination to continue towards establishing tranquility for the inhabitants.
Arab League monitors to visit 3 more Syrian cities
Monitors from the Arab League will visit three additional cities in Syria on Wednesday to gauge whether the country is ending a bloody crackdown on protesters.Observers will visit the flashpoint cities of Daraa, Hama and Idlib, said Alaa Shalaby, a member of the Arab League advance team. They will also spend a second day in the besieged city of Homs. Ahead of the monitors visit in Daraa, violence erupted. Four Syrian forces members were killed and 12 wounded after defectors ambushed their convoy, according to the opposition activist group Syrian Observatory for Human Rights. The Arab League fact-finding team is monitoring an Arab League initiative that calls for President Bashar al-Assad’s security forces to withdraw from cities, release detainees and end violence.
Thursday, November 17, 2011
Turkey: in between Political Islam and the Military
The current crisis in Turkish-Israeli relations which started two years ago after Israel’s Operation Cast Lead, has received international media attention and inspired political analysts in the West to repeatedly ask the same question: Does Turkey still remain in the Western camp? This essay approaches the issue from the viewpoint of Turkey’s domestic policies. It analyses the impact of domestic dynamics on its relations with Israel during the current AKP government and the RP led government in the 1990s and suggests that domestic developments in Turkey play a major role in its relationship with the Jewish state. One cannot understand the sudden change, first in Turkish rhetoric and then in political behaviour towards Israel, without understanding the changes that took place in Turkey after the AKP came into power. Simultaneously the strong alliance with Israel during the 1990s has to be interpreted in the context of political issues within Turkey of that time.
This paper argues that the relationship between Israel and Turkey is strongly affected, if not determined by the power relations between political Islam vis-a-vis the military and the secularist establishment of Turkey.
This paper argues that the relationship between Israel and Turkey is strongly affected, if not determined by the power relations between political Islam vis-a-vis the military and the secularist establishment of Turkey.
The Coming War on the Occupy Movement
As I begin to write this, Occupy Oakland circulates in a by-now familiar pattern: forced from the camp at the break of day, the occupiers reconvened as they have done before on the steps of the Public Library. Later, they will attempt to close a repeating circuit that stretches a short six blocks along 14th Street between City Hall and the Library. This circuit, moreover, is one which draws its familiarity not only from recent weeks, but also from the early moments of what is a single cycle of struggle spanning years: it was down 14th Street that Oakland Police pursued us during the first rebellion, on January 7th of 2009, that greeted the murder of Oscar Grant. And it was in front of the same Public Library that I crouched behind a bush as an armored personnel carrier sped past, only to sprint off as heavily-clad militarized police-troops dismounted to chase myself and others on foot. It has become all too apparent that the Occupy Movement is under attack, and that even my title is wholly insufficient: this war is not “coming,” this war has already begun.
NSA whistle-blowers want seized computers returned
Four former analysts at the National Security Agency who had complained that waste and mismanagement impeded efforts to protect America are trying to force authorities to return personal computers seized from their homes in 2007. Among those joining the motion filed in U.S. District Court in Baltimore is Thomas Andrews Drake. The former NSA employee was charged with felony espionage for retaining classified information for a reporter but convicted only of a single misdemeanor for inappropriate computer use. After the government backed down on all of the felony charges this summer, a federal judge criticized prosecutors for dragging Drake and his family through "four years of hell."
Poland paroles convicted Russian spy
The Polish authorities on Thursday released on parole Russian national Tadeusz Juchniewicz, who was sentenced to three years for espionage in 2010, the Polish Press Agency said, quoting court officials.
The last round of negotiations on the EU/Ukraine Association Agreement
On 11 November in Brussels, the last round of negotiations of the Association Agreement between Ukraine and the European Union was held. Compromise was reached on two of three issues. Kyiv agreed to a term-free contract, which Brussels had called for, but won the option to revise it after five years with both parties’ consent. Ukraine also agreed to make changes in its law (including constitutional amendments) extending the jurisdiction of the International Criminal Court to citizens of Ukraine. The most important issue remained unresolved, however; the inclusion of a formal note on the prospect of EU membership, which Ukraine has been pushing for. It was only established that agreement on this issue would be reached during a meeting at the political level, but no date was specified for this.
U.S. Banks Face Contagion Risk From Europe Debt
U.S. banks face a “serious risk” that their creditworthiness will deteriorate if Europe’s debt crisis deepens and spreads beyond the five most-troubled nations, Fitch Ratings said.“Unless the euro zone debt crisis is resolved in a timely and orderly manner, the broad credit outlook for the U.S. banking industry could worsen,” the New York-based rating company said yesterday in a statement. Even as U.S. banks have “manageable” exposure to stressed European markets, “further contagion poses a serious risk,” Fitch said, without explaining what it meant by contagion.The “exposures” of U.S. lenders to major European banks and the stressed nations of Greece, Ireland, Italy, Portugal and Spain, known as the GIIPS, are smaller than those to some of the continent’s larger countries, Fitch said.
Russian Military Chief Warns of Nuclear War Risks
Russia is facing a heightened risk of being drawn into conflicts at its borders that have the potential of turning nuclear, the nation's top military officer said Thursday. Gen. Nikolai Makarov, chief of the General Staff of the Russian armed forces, cautioned over NATO's expansion eastward and warned that the risks of Russia being pulled into local conflicts have "risen sharply." Makarov added, according to Russian news agencies, that "under certain conditions local and regional conflicts may develop into a full-scale war involving nuclear weapons." A steady decline in Russia's conventional forces has prompted the Kremlin to rely increasingly on its nuclear deterrent.
America’s War on Terror in Africa
Reports of a new deployment of U.S. Special Operations Forces to help subdue Boko Haram in Nigeria, shared by the Guardian and Danger Room last week, are somewhat misleading. The reports are misleading not because they are unconfirmed, but because the United States has been quietly engaging in counterterrorism in a wide range of African countries, including Nigeria, for almost a decade. The U.S. currently provides counterterrorism assistance to the militaries of Algeria, Burkina Faso, Chad, Mali, Mauritania, Morocco, Niger, Nigeria, Senegal and Tunisia, under the Trans-Saharan Counter Terrorism Partnership, a large-scale expansion of the Pan-Sahel Initiative, which was launched in 2002.
Les Etats-Unis accusent la Chine et la Russie de cyberespionnage
La coupe est pleine. Tel est en quelque sorte le message que les autorités américaines ont adressé à la Chine et à la Russie en publiant, jeudi 3 novembre, un rapport sur le cyber-espionnage mené aux dépens des Etats-Unis dont le ton est inhabituellement accusateur. Depuis 2009, "les réseaux informatiques d’un vaste éventail d’administrations publiques, d’entreprises privées, d’universités ou d’autres institutions, toutes détentrices d’un gros volume d’informations économiques sensibles, ont été victimes d’espionnage", indique le rapport remis au Congrès par l’Office national du contre-espionnage. "Une grande partie de ces activités semblent provenir de Chine", poursuit le document, qui désigne aussi la Russie, dans une moindre mesure.
Des déserteurs attaquent un centre des services de renseignement
Des déserteurs de l’armée syrienne ont attaqué tôt mercredi une installation des services de renseignements près de Damas, une première depuis le début du soulèvement populaire contre le régime du président Bachar al Assad mi-mars, rapportent des militants de l’opposition. Des membres de l’Armée syrienne libre ont procédé à des tirs de roquette et de mitrailleuse sur l’installation des services de renseignement des forces aériennes syriennes, située au nord de la capitale vers 00h30 GMT. L’attaque a été suivie d’une fusillade et des hélicoptères ont survolé la zone, ont indiqué des sources proches de l’opposition. "J’ai entendu plusieurs explosions, des échanges de tirs de mitrailleuses", a dit un habitant de la banlieue de Harasta, qui a requis l’anonymat.
L’intelligence économique est efficace et responsable
Il faut arrêter d’utiliser le terme "intelligence économique" pour qualifier des dérapages et des manœuvres "tordues" de quelques entreprises et consultants. Evidemment, pour ceux qui y recourent, ce terme passe mieux que de parler d’intrusion, vol d’informations ou trafic d’influence. Il est dans leur esprit plus facile d’obtenir des informations ou des faveurs de cette manière qu’en travaillant dur pour traiter professionnellement l’information. Avant même la malhonnêteté, c’est la paresse et l’incompétence qui poussent à ces dérives. Mais c’est un faux sens du terme, dur à admettre pour les vrais praticiens, qui doivent le combattre sans répit.
Le MI6 déjoue une attaque contre le CNT en Libye
Les services de renseignement britanniques ont déjoué une attaque des forces fidèles à Mouammar Kadhafi contre les dirigeants du Conseil national de transition libyen et des représentants occidentaux, a affirmé mercredi le chef de la diplomatie britannique, William Hague.
Saturday, May 7, 2011
ABM : Moscou et l’Otan négocient à Bruxelles
Le chef de l’Etat-major général russe, le général Nikolaï Makarov, évoquera mercredi à Bruxelles la coopération entre Moscou et l’Otan dans la défense antimissile, ainsi que la sécurité européenne et internationale, a annoncé à RIA Novosti le service de presse du ministère russe de la Défense.
Une réunion du Conseil Russie-Otan est prévue à Bruxelles le 4 mai.
Une réunion du Conseil Russie-Otan est prévue à Bruxelles le 4 mai.
Obama et le renseignement américain contre Ben Laden
L'opération de liquidation - à défaut d'arrestation[1] - d'Oussama Ben Laden au Pakistan, le dimanche 1er mai, est avant tout incontestablement une réussite du renseignement. On ne parlera pas ici de victoire : laissons ce symbole à la lutte contre la haine et l'obscurantisme. L'élaboration du renseignement s'inscrit dans le long terme. C'est une grande leçon pour tous ses contempteurs, ou plus simplement contre ceux qui causent et ne savent pas. Et pour les impatients : le renseignement s'élabore dans le temps, la sérénité et le professionnalisme. Malgré toutes les pressions dont il est l'objet en permanence. Il peut y avoir des « boucles courtes » dans le fameux cycle du renseignement, en particulier lorsque celui-ci s'applique aux actions militaires.
Wednesday, May 4, 2011
AQMI : après Ben Laden
Deux jours après la mort du leader « charismatique » et fondateur d’Al Quaïda, une reconfiguration de ses franchises locales, et notamment d’Al Quaida au Maghreb Islamique est « attendue », selon plusieurs services de renseignements actifs dans la région sahélienne. Même si beaucoup de branches d’Al Quaïda sont historiquement issues de mouvements terroristes nationaux plus anciens, et ont fait allégeance à la nébuleuse par la suite, il existait une emprise idéologique forte de la structure créée par le milliardaire saoudien.
Friday, April 8, 2011
Countering AQ Ambitions in Libya
Pundits seem to be overwhelming for or fanatically against all actions. I see no point in arguing over whether the U.S. should have initiated a No Fly Zone (NFZ) in support of the Libyan opposition. It’s over, and the West should now concentrate on its interests; one of them being the denial of an AQ safe haven in Eastern Libya.
Hopefully, I’ve been a little more measured in the past three posts and I’ll try to outline some reasonable policy and military actions the West can take now to thwart what few AQ-LIFG-Rebel Opposition linkages there are in Libya.
Hopefully, I’ve been a little more measured in the past three posts and I’ll try to outline some reasonable policy and military actions the West can take now to thwart what few AQ-LIFG-Rebel Opposition linkages there are in Libya.
Shout-Outs: Analysts of Terrorist Internet Use
I’ve observed maybe a hundred hours of “Terrorist Use of the Internet” classes/presentations over the past nine years. Additionally, I’ve perused several hundred documents on “Terrorist Use of the Internet” and have seen every cable/TV news outlet broadcast of some form of “Terrorist Use of the Internet” story.
A standard “Terrorist Use of the Internet” briefing will have a lot of ‘scary’ pictures and ‘scary’ videos designed to shock the audience. These presentations usually include:
A standard “Terrorist Use of the Internet” briefing will have a lot of ‘scary’ pictures and ‘scary’ videos designed to shock the audience. These presentations usually include:
Thursday, April 7, 2011
European Missile Defense: sacrificing the Russian queen for an Iranian pawn
As a former senior Russian defense official reveals that Russian and US missile defense technologies are fully compatible, will NATO ignore the opportunity for full cooperation with Russia? "In the period from 2003 to 2008, we carried out several computer exercises in the format of the Russia-NATO Council in which we specifically studied aspects of compatibility of our means of early warning and interception,” Lt. Gen. Yevgeny Buzhinsky, a former senior member of the Defense Ministry's international relations department, and now a consultant at PIR Center (the Russian Center for Policy Studies). “The conclusion was that they are compatible," he confirmed. "There are no technical problems of compatibility.”
Britain armed Gaddafi, now have designs on rebels
Britain is facing accusations from the International Criminal Court over the weapons it's sold to Gaddafi while the UK is considering arming more Libyans – rebels this time. The rebels say they lack the ammunition needed to fight off the forces of Colonel Gaddafi. In the meantime, it is believed Gaddafi was planning to use force to crackdown on protesters long before the uprising began, and the UK was its main arms provider.
That explains why the Libyan security forces have been putting down unrest in the country with plenty of rubber bullets, tear gas and other ammunition to a considerable degree British made. The UK was still selling arms to Libya just four months before Colonel Gaddafi turned them on his own people, with government ministers approving a deal for sniper rifles, bullets and tear gas.
That explains why the Libyan security forces have been putting down unrest in the country with plenty of rubber bullets, tear gas and other ammunition to a considerable degree British made. The UK was still selling arms to Libya just four months before Colonel Gaddafi turned them on his own people, with government ministers approving a deal for sniper rifles, bullets and tear gas.
Wednesday, April 6, 2011
How a big US bank laundered billions from Mexico’s murderous drug gangs
On 10 April 2006, a DC-9 jet landed in the port city of Ciudad del Carmen, on the Gulf of Mexico, as the sun was setting. Mexican soldiers, waiting to intercept it, found 128 cases packed with 5.7 tons of cocaine, valued at $100m. But something else – more important and far-reaching – was discovered in the paper trail behind the purchase of the plane by the Sinaloa narco-trafficking cartel. During a 22-month investigation by agents from the US Drug Enforcement Administration, the Internal Revenue Service and others, it emerged that the cocaine smugglers had bought the plane with money they had laundered through one of the biggest banks in the United States: Wachovia, now part of the giant Wells Fargo.
Cyberdéfense : la France est-elle bien protégée?
Quelques semaines après le piratage du système d’information du ministère des Finances, ZDNet.fr a invité les journalistes spécialisés Jérôme Saiz et Jean-Marc Manach pour analyser le plan de communication mis en place par le gouvernement dans cette affaire et détailler l’évolution du dispositif de cyberdéfense de l’Etat.
Si l’attaque des systèmes d’information de l’Etat est monnaie courante, celle révélée le 7 mars dernier par l’Agence nationale de la sécurité des systèmes d’information (Anssi) revêt un caractère particulier. Pour Jean-Marc Manach, journaliste à Owni.fr et spécialiste des questions de sécurité, la précision du ciblage des haut-fonctionnaires du Ministère des finances est exceptionnelle. Mais ce qui l’est davantage, c’est le plan de communication déployé autour de cette affaire. "Avant le 7 mars 2011, la sécurité informatique, c’était comme Tchernobyl, les problèmes s’arrêtaient aux frontières. On avait jamais entendu parler d’affaires d’espionnage informatique." ironise-t-il.Tuesday, April 5, 2011
Libye : Quelles sont les actions de la DGSE sur le terrain?
Les sources ouvertes affirment que des agents de la CIA, du MI-6 britannique et de la DGSE opèrent actuellement sur le sol libyen. Jean-Jacques Cécile, journaliste spécialisé défense et ex-membre des services de renseignement militaire explique quel rôle les agents français sont susceptibles de tenir sur le terrain.
Libye : Quelles sont les actions de la DGSE sur... por Nouvelobs
Libye : Quelles sont les actions de la DGSE sur... por Nouvelobs
Petraeus pourrait devenir patron de la CIA
Le commandant des forces internationales en Afghanistan, le général américain David Petraeus, a de « fortes chances » de devenir le patron de la CIA, a affirmé lundi la radio publique nationale (NPR). Petraeus, qui a l’intention de quitter son poste de commandant des forces internationales en Afghanistan cette année, « accepterait ce job (directeur de la CIA) si on le lui offrait », a ajouté la NPR, citant des sources gouvernementales anonymes. Leon Panetta, l’actuel directeur de la CIA, pourrait remplacer le secrétaire à la Défense Robert Gates qui a l’intention de se retirer cette année. Le Pentagone n’a pas commenté ces informations.
Brazil latest base for Islamic extremists
With preparations for the 2014 World Cup in Brazil and the 2016 Olympic Games in Rio de Janeiro well under way, security experts have expressed fears that terrorists are “taking advantage” of weaknesses in the country’s laws. Brazil has not passed any specific anti-terrorism legislation, does not recognize Hizbollah or Hamas as terrorist groups and disbanded the Federal Police’s anti-terrorism service in 2009. Now, Veja, a weekly news magazine, has had access to reports compiled by the service as well as documents about the terrorist threat sent to Brazil by the FBI, CIA, Interpol and the US Treasury. It says the papers show 21 men linked to Islamic extremist groups including al-Qaeda, have been using Brazil for various purposes including controlling inflows of money and planning attacks.
Thursday, March 24, 2011
Israeli and Saudi leaders in Moscow as Palestinians ramp up missile strikes
As Russian, Israeli and Saudi leaders discussed the ramifications of the Arab uprising in Moscow and US Defense Secretary Robert Gates talked to Israeli military chiefs in Tel Aviv, the Palestinian Hamas continued to escalate its missile offensive on Israeli cities. Thursday, March 24, heavy Grad missiles hit the towns of Ashdod and Ofakim making it the worst day of a bad week, with schools in the southern half of Israel shutting down one by one and bomb shelters being opened.
Iran Calls on Islamic Hackers to Enlist to the Iranian “Cyber War”
Last week, Gholam-Reza Jalali, the head of the Passive Resistance Organization, announced the coming establishment of the Cyber War Headquarters of the Islamic Republic to act against Iran’s enemies in the cyber field under the Passive Resistance Organization. Bultannews, a website affiliated with the Iranian Ministry of Intelligence, reported that, at a press conference held during the second conference of the Passive Resistance Organization, Jalali called on “good-intentioned, revolutionary” hackers to help advance the objectives of the Islamic republic. Jalali also warned that the Iranian authorities monitor the activities of hackers seeking to harm Iran’s citizens, and intend to take action against them.
Egypt to protest against anti-protest law
The Egyptian cabinet approved yesterday a decree-law that criminalises strikes, protests, demonstrations and sit-ins that interrupt private or state owned businesses or affect the economy in any way.The decree-law also assigns severe punishment to those who call for or incite action, with the maximum sentence one year in prison and fines of up to half a million pounds. The new law, which still needs to be approved by the Supreme Council of the Armed Forces, will be in force as long as the emergency law is still in force. Egypt has been in a state of emergency since the assassination of former president Anwar Sadat in 1981.
Afrique-Israël : 40 ans de Security Business
Renseignement, vente d’armes, soutien logistique ou formation d’élite, l’intérêt de l’État hébreu pour les pays au sud du Sahara est constant depuis 40 ans. D’après Knowdys intelligence économique, une soixantaine d’entreprises de sécurité israéliennes menaient des activités en territoire subsaharien à la fin du 4ème trimestre 2010. Des sociétés créées et/ou dirigées par des anciens du Mossad ou de Tsahal. Dans cet article, Marc Brenner lève un pan du voile sur le marché du Security Business qui lie Tel-Aviv aux capitales subsahariennes.
Janvier 2009. La scène se déroule dans un somptueux restaurant du bord de mer à Tel-Aviv. Assis nerveusement au coin d’une table, Samuel Sternfeld avise une dernière fois son équipe.
Enquête sur un scandale d’espionnage concernant l’Otan
Les services de contre-espionnage lettons ont annoncé mercredi qu’ils poursuivaient une enquête sur des espions russes présumés, impliqués dans un scandale concernant l’Otan et ayant déjà conduit en prison en 2009 un haut fonctionnaire en Estonie voisine. L’office letton de protection de la Constitution (SAB) a indiqué dans son rapport annuel qu’il tentait d’élucider les relations entre un ancien responsable du ministère estonien de la Défense, Herman Simm, et ses commanditaires russes qui fréquentaient la Lettonie entre 2000 et 2008.
EADS réorganise sa branche défense
Le groupe adopte une organisation qui donne plus de pouvoir aux pays, un peu sur le modèle déjà adopté par Thales. Objectif : se renforcer à l’international. Stefan Zoller, le patron de Cassidian, le holding d’EADS qui regroupe les activités défense et sécurité du groupe aéronautique, a présenté mardi après-midi à ses cadres un important projet de réorganisation devant lui permettre de se renforcer dans les grands pays émergents, a-t-on appris de sources concordantes. « La présentation s’est focalisée sur les grandes lignes. Mais tout doit être mis en oeuvre à l’été », explique-t-on en interne.
Wednesday, March 23, 2011
Armement : les exportations françaises en chute libre
Les prises de commandes ressortent à 4,3 milliards d’euros, contre un peu plus de 8 milliard en 2009. En cause : l’absence de gros contrats, Rafale notamment. La France peine à vendre ses armes à l’étranger. En 2010, les exportations ont atteint 4,3 milliards d’euros contre un peu plus de 8 milliards en 2009, selon des sources concordantes. Ce chiffre représente le montant des contrats signés et pour lesquels le pays client a versé l’acompte prévu. Il marque un net recul après plusieurs années de progression. Il faut remonter à 2005 pour trouver d’aussi faibles prises de commandes.
West Africa: Senegal: The beginning of the end for Wade?
Senegalese Justice minister, Sheikh Tidiane Sy, delivered a peculiar message on Friday, 18 March, in which he declared that a coup against the government of President Wade had been thwarted. The alleged coup plotters are not members of the army, as one might expect, they are actually members of the public - civil society figures and political activists who share in common-opposition to the regime. A few days after Sly's message, Communication minister Moustapha Guirassy denied the coup allegations arguing that the available evidence could not sufficiently support government's concerns.
Wednesday, March 16, 2011
Saturday, March 5, 2011
Blind Spot
Blind Spot is a documentary film that illustrates the current oil and energy crisis that our world is facing.
Whatever measures of ignorance, greed, wishful thinking, we have put ourselves at a crossroads, which offer two paths with dire consequences. If we continue to burn fossil fuels we will choke the life out of the planet and if we don’t our way of life will collapse.
Tuesday, March 1, 2011
Could Venezuela really go bankrupt?
Ever since Greece plunged into a sovereign debt crisis in 2009, investors have focused on which European country might be next. According to Capital Economics, a research firm in London, however, the next trouble spot could be Venezuela. "There is a growing risk that the government will default on its obligations in 2012,"its analysts wrote on Feb. 17. Some in the markets have taken fright, too: the country’ credit default swaps imply a 50 per cent chance of default by 2015. That may be overblown. Even so, Hugo Chavez, Venezuela’s leftist president, seems to be pulling off a dubious achievement by causing the bond markets to fear for the solvency of the world’s eighth-largest oil producer.
Chavez: U.S. distorting situation in Libya 'to justify an invasion'
Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez claims U.S. criticism of Libyan leader Moammar Gadhafi has a clear aim: military invasion. "Let's not get carried away by the drums of war, because the United States, I am sure that they are exaggerating and distorting things to justify an invasion," Chavez said Monday, according to Venezuelan state media. At a Monday meeting of the U.N. Human Rights Council in Geneva, Switzerland, U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton said the United States was exploring "all possible options," and that "nothing is off the table so long as the Libyan government continues to threaten and kill Libyan citizens."
Asked at a news conference Monday whether the United States planned an imminent military response in Libya, Clinton said, "No." Speaking Monday in the Venezuelan capital, Caracas, Chavez proposed sending an international committee to Libya to mediate and help develop a peaceful solution to unrest in the North African country.
Asked at a news conference Monday whether the United States planned an imminent military response in Libya, Clinton said, "No." Speaking Monday in the Venezuelan capital, Caracas, Chavez proposed sending an international committee to Libya to mediate and help develop a peaceful solution to unrest in the North African country.
Armement : la Russie et le Maroc signeront deux accords
La Russie et le Maroc signeront deux accords de coopération technique et militaire, a annoncé mardi l’ambassadeur du Royaume du Maroc à Moscou Abdelkader Lecheheb lors d’une conférence de presse organisée par RIA Novosti. "Actuellement, nous entendons signer avec la Russie deux accords de coopération technique et militaire. Un accord est déjà prêt à être signé, le deuxième se trouvant au stade final de sa préparation", a indiqué le diplomate. "Ces dernières années, le Maroc a acheté plusieurs armements russes. Je ne voudrais pas dévoiler le détail des prochains accords, puisque les négociations continuent. Dès que les documents sont prêts, une information concernant les volumes des livraisons, leur prix et les armes achetées sera annoncée, j’en suis certain", a-t-il ajouté.
Informelle de la Défense européenne : opérations en cours, capacités militaires et réponses à la crise libyenne au menu de la rencontre
Catherine Ashton a clôturé la rencontre entre les ministres de la défense de l’UE en présentant un bilan des préoccupations des européens en matière de défense : les opérations, le développement des capacités, mais aussi la gestion de la crise en Libye. La réunion informelle des ministres de la Défense de l’Union européenne (UE), qui se tenait à Gödöllö, près de Budapest (Hongrie), s’est achevée vendredi 25 février 2011, après deux journées de discussions. Si le programme de cette rencontre était essentiellement axé sur la relance de la Défense européenne, les opérations militaires, ainsi que sur la nécessité de développer les coopérations entre les pays membres de l’UE et avec l’Otan, dans le domaine des capacités militaires, la situation en Libye s’est logiquement invitée au cœur des débats.
Monday, February 28, 2011
‘Post-Qaddafi Libya’: on the Globalist Road
“Most participants argued for privatization and a strong private sector economy.” That is a statement culled from a report of a panel discussion entitled “Post-Qaddafi Libya: The Prospect and The Promise,” organized by Washington’s Center for Strategic and International Studies in 1994.[1] Dr Ali Tarhouni stated at the conference, “with privatization, entrepreneurs will reach out and get involved in regional cooperation by searching for markets.”[2] Is that what the long-planned, well-funded “spontaneous revolts” now toppling regimes like a house of cards is actually about? Regional economic zones are a prime part of the globalization process. One well-known example is the concept of a “Trilateral” bloc of Asia, Europe, and North America, instigated by David Rockefeller as per the Trilateral Commission.[3] Others include NAFTA, European Union, APEC,[4] and the like.
Iran: The Next Domino?
“Revolutions are often seen as spontaneous. It looks like people just went into the street. But it’s the result of months or years of preparation. It is very boring until you reach a certain point, where you can organize mass demonstrations or strikes. If it is carefully planned, by the time they start, everything is over in a matter of weeks.” — Ivan Marovic, ex-instructor, Center for Applied NonViolent Action and Strategies, Serbia.[1]
With the staging of a second[2] attempt at a “green revolution” in Iran in the wake of the overthrow of the regimes in Tunisia[3] and Egypt[4] by groups primarily sponsored by the National Endowment for Democracy, International Republican Institute, Open Society Institute, Freedom House, USAID and a myriad of their fronts; the question might arise as to whether the turmoil inflicted on Egypt and Tunisia was intended as a prelude to the major target: Iran.
Sunday, February 27, 2011
Jasmine Revolution And Social Stability In China
The ‘Jasmine Revolution’ (JR) that began in Tunisia and spread like a prairie fire to Egypt, Libya, Yemen, Bahrain, Algeria, Jordan and Oman etc. Middle East dictatorial regimes has also made its reverberations felt in China and made the authorities jittery and nervous. The organizers of the JR are primarily overseas Chinese inciting the Chinese people to follow the JR suit in China, and demand freedom and democracy, political reforms and an end to the one party rule. Even Ma Yingjiu, the Taiwanese president resonated during the commemoration ceremony of the February 28 Incident [1947], infamous for Kuomintang’s white terror in Taiwan that the incidents starting from the 2.28 and right up to the recent turbulent Jasmine Revolution around the world, is a reflection of peoples struggle for the protection of their human rights and democratic freedoms.
Mauritania: Al-Qaeda Endangers Tourism
Built seven centuries ago, the historic city of Chinguetti is Mauritania’s top tourist destination. For decades, the city lured visitors from around the world. But with the death of four French tourists at the hands of al-Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb (AQIM) in December 2007, the number of visitors dropped off sharply.
About 7,000 people worked in tourism in the city, and they were impacted heavily by the decline following the al-Qaeda kidnappings, according to Mohamed Mahmoud, a tour operator and head of the Mauritanian Association for Sahara Guides.
About 7,000 people worked in tourism in the city, and they were impacted heavily by the decline following the al-Qaeda kidnappings, according to Mohamed Mahmoud, a tour operator and head of the Mauritanian Association for Sahara Guides.
Russia, Ukraine To Sign Deal On Russian Black Sea Fleet Rearmament
Russia and Ukraine plan to sign a new agreement on the rearmament of the Russian Black Sea Fleet based in Ukraine’s Crimea, Russian Defense Minister Anatoly Serdyukov said on Sunday. “We are, indeed, discussing this issue and are trying to formulate new provisions for this agreement,” he said. Under the existing accords, Russia may rearm its Black Sea fleet in the Crimea only with Ukraine’s consent.
India And The Turmoil In The Middle-East
Many countries of the Middle-East are currently rocked by the people’s protests demanding regime change and political reforms. The awakened public now wants the autocrats, dictators and despots to step down. The “intelligent” rulers of Egypt and Tunisia timely left the thrones in exchange for their lives. But the strange Libyan dictator Col. Muammar Qaddafi has refused to step down until his last breath. For fulfilling this ambition, he is even ready to destroy the nation. And this is the reason that even in the last moments of his rule, Qaddafi has appealed to his numbered supporters to attack the protesters and crush them like “cockroaches”. One can imagine if Qaddafi can do such things at a time when his days are numbered, what he could have done with the opponents and dissidents when he used to rule the roost in Libya.
Libya and beyond: What's next for democracy?
In Egypt, the relatively short-lived military crackdown by the hated security agencies and pro-regime thugs actually strengthened the opposition, reminding the millions in the streets exactly what they were protesting against. In Libya, the Gaddafi regime seems to have turned that lesson on its head, apparently believing that if their response is violent enough, brutal enough, murderous enough, the opposition will stop. So far, it hasn’t worked. With earlier attacks from helicopter gunships and jet bombers, and with reports of machine gun fire in and around Tripoli continuing at least through February 24, the estimates of Libyans killed range from 300 to more than 1,000 people—but the popular resistance has continued unabated.
L’Egypte, le Proche Orient et la doctrine Obama
La description la plus répandue de la tourmente que vient de connaître l’Egypte, dont elle n’est pas du tout sortie, et qui se prolonge en Libye, voudrait que celle-ci soit née spontanément, sans organisation ou coordination, d’un vaste mécontentement populaire. Cette narration est, pour partie fausse. Il y avait au sein du peuple égyptien, fin décembre, un mécontentement certain, mais l’étincelle qui a mis un peu plus tard le feu aux poudres n’avait rien de spontané.
On sait maintenant, comme l’explique un article du Wall Street Journal (« The Secret Meeting that Sparked the Uprising », 11 février 2011), qu’un groupe d’activistes s’est réuni plusieurs semaines avant le début du soulèvement aux fins de créer des réseaux, et d’organiser une série de manifestations conçues soigneusement pour déjouer l’action des forces de sécurité. On sait aussi que ces activistes comprenaient des membres de diverses organisations de gauche, d’extrême-gauche et islamistes.
On ne peut ignorer, par ailleurs, que l’administration Obama, au delà de propos souvent confus et contradictoires, a été porteuse d’un net soutien à l’agitation, qui n’a pu que renforcer celle-ci et lui montrer qu’elle rencontrait un écho. On ne peut ignorer non plus que les propos de Barack Obama, de Robert Gibbs et de Hillary Clinton ont indiqué assez vite une volonté très explicite de lâcher ouvertement Hosni Moubarak, de susciter une démocratisation rapide, et de voir les Frères musulmans être intégrés au jeu politique.
On doit regarder en face, depuis là, ce qui est survenu. Hosni Moubarak est tombé. Il n’y a pas eu, pour autant, une « révolution », mais juste un coup d’Etat sur fond d’émeutes et de manifestations : le pouvoir est aujourd’hui entre les mains d’un « haut conseil des forces armées » qui inclut tous les chefs militaires, et qui incarne une continuité stricte. La constitution a été abolie. Le Parlement a été dissout. L’armée constitue toujours l’épine dorsale de la société égyptienne, au sein de laquelle elle fonctionne comme une nomenklatura qui a, depuis 1952, disposé de toutes les prérogatives, de tous les privilèges et de tous les leviers de commande.
On doit porter un regard froid sur ce qui peut survenir. Le maintien d’une dictature stricte reste possible, même si ce n’est pas l’éventualité la plus probable. Une nouvelle constitution est en cours de rédaction. Des élections auront vraisemblablement lieu.
Si elles devaient être organisées rapidement, elles déboucheraient sans aucun doute sur des résultats très différents de ce qu’espèrent ceux qui rêveraient, sur un mode utopique, de voir émerger une démocratie à l’occidentale.
Il existe une grande différence entre les manifestants de la place Tahrir qui, pour l’essentiel, appartenaient à une classe moyenne urbanisée, et les gens pauvres et analphabètes du pays profond. Et quand bien même les seconds ont pu suivre le mouvement des premiers, leurs objectifs et leurs idées pourraient se révéler très différents.
Les enquêtes réalisées ces derniers mois sur les changements souhaités par la population égyptienne montrent que ceux-ci concernent le chômage, les revenus et le niveau de vie. Les exigences de liberté ne touchent qu’une infime minorité et recueillent des scores inférieurs à 5%.
Les enquêtes montrent aussi un attachement massif à la charia et à la volonté que celle-ci soit plus strictement appliquée, une volonté nette de rompre avec les valeurs occidentales, des sentiments anti-américains, anti-occidentaux et, bien sûr, massivement anti-israéliens.
Des partis politiques n’ayant pas le temps matériel de se structurer, une classe moyenne plus vaste n’ayant aucune chance de naître en quelques mois, la pauvreté et l’analphabétisme n’étant pas destinés à s’évanouir magiquement, la conséquence logique d’élections hâtives serait une poussée islamiste, teintée sans doute de socialisme et de nationalisme radical.
Dans tous les cas de figure, qu’il y ait élections ou non, on doit s’attendre à une stagnation économique, voire même à une régression globale, que des aides occidentales ne pourront juguler. On peut penser que les chiffres de la croissance répertoriés pour ces dernières années, 9% jusqu’en 2009, 4,7% en 2010, appartiendront au révolu. On peut penser que la misère et la faim s’accentueront.
On peut supposer que l’alliance de l’Egypte avec les Etats-Unis ne sera pas rompue mais se fera plus distante, et plus teintée de défiance.
Tout incite à considérer que le traité de paix entre l’Egypte et Israël ne sera pas répudié, mais qu’au minimum, les frontières entre l’Egypte et Gaza seront plus perméables, et que l’Egypte surveillera de beaucoup moins près le passage par son territoire de terroristes potentiels.
Une évolution semblable à celle survenue à la fin du règne du shah en Iran semble écartée : il n’y a pas, en Egypte, de leader politico-spirituel qu’on puisse assimiler à l’ayatollah Khomeiny, quand bien même Youssef al-Qaradawi, président de l’Union Internationale des oulemas, et intervenant fréquent sur Al-Djazeera en arabe, est d’origine égyptienne ert pourrait être tenté de jouer ce rôle.
Il n’en restera pas moins que, sans rejoindre pleinement le camp des ennemis de l’Amérique et de l’Occident, l’Egypte ne pourra plus être définie comme un pays ami.
Il n’en restera pas moins que la gestion des événements par l’administration Obama sera vraisemblablement jugée de manière très sévère par l’histoire.
Les deux premières années de la présidence de Barack Obama ont vu les positions des Etats-Unis s’affaiblir partout sur la planète. Elles ont vu le Président des Etats-Unis s’excuser du passé de son pays partout où il passait, tendre la main aux ennemis de son pays partout sur terre, et tourner le dos à quelques-uns des plus fidèles alliés de celui-ci.
Elles l’ont vu tenir en juin 2009, au Caire, un discours chantant les louanges de l’islam et comparant Israël à l’Afrique du Sud au temps de l’apartheid, ou aux Etats du Sud confédéré, au temps de la Guerre de Sécession. Et elles l’ont vu inviter, pour écouter ce discours, des membres de la confrérie des Frères Musulmans, honnie et combattue par le régime.
Elles l’ont vu dédaigner le soulèvement de la population iranienne après la réélection truquée d’Ahmadinejad, et sembler, jusqu’à une date récente, soutenir des soulèvements seulement quand ils concernaient et pouvaient faire chuter des régimes autoritaires alliés des Etats-Unis.
Elles ont coïncidé avec un isolement et une diabolisation sans précédent d’Israël, avec un renforcement au Proche-Orient du camp de l’Iran, qui compte désormais en ses rangs, la Syrie, la Turquie et le Liban, et avec un affaiblissement, dans la même région, du camp pro-occidental qui, en dehors d’Israël, se trouve désormais très fragilisé, et réduit essentiellement à une Jordanie chancelante et une Arabie Saoudite déstabilisée. Elles coïncident aujourd’hui avec ce qui se passe au Yemen, à Bahrein ou, de façon bien plus dramatique et meurtrière, en Libye. Elles débouchent sur une menace lourde pesant sur le détroit d’Hormuz et sur le Bab El-Mandeb, passage qui mène à la mer Rouge. Elles conduisent au risque de voir la Libye passer d’une dictature ravageuse à un chaos qu’al Qaida est tout à fait prêt à exploiter.
Certains voudraient penser qu’il n’y a eu là qu’une succession de concours de circonstances.
D’autres discerneront des relations de cause à effet : la règle, pendant le vingtième siècle, a été qu’à chaque fois que les Etats-Unis ont été dirigés par des gens faibles et indécis, ou porteurs d’illusions sur la réalité, la liberté a reculé sur la terre.
La règle semble valoir aussi pour le vingt-et-unième siècle.
On a parlé, dès les premiers mois de la présidence de Barack Obama, d’une doctrine Obama en politique étrangère, basée sur une forme de docilité préventive et de courtoisie déférente envers les dictatures hostiles au monde occidental, sur une posture anti-israélienne marquée par des relents de discours gauchiste et tiers-mondiste, sur une forme de volonté d’affaiblir les Etats-Unis. Charles Krauthammer dans « Decline is a choice » (The Weekly Standard, October 19 2009) a dit que la doctrine Obama était un « exercice de contraction », « la démolition des fondements moraux de la dominance américaine ». Ralph Peters, dans « The Obama doctrine, Hugging Foes, Hurting Friends » (nypost.com, April 29 2009) a écrit que la politique étrangère d’Obama était « une combinaison de naïveté vertigineuse, de mépris pour nos alliés, de dédain pour notre armée, et de défiance pour nos services de renseignement ».
On reparle de doctrine Obama, pour dire cette fois que Barack Obama finit par incarner les valeurs américaines, et que ce qui se passe sert les intérêts des Etats-Unis et du monde occidental (Simon Tisdall, « Out of Egyptian protests a new Obama doctrine is born », The Guardian, 11 février 2011).
Pour l’heure, il est très difficile de voir en quoi ce qui s’est passé en Egypte, qui pourrait facilement déboucher sur un désastre, ou en ce qui se passe dans toute la région, quelque chose qui sert les Etats-Unis et le monde occidental, et il est plus difficile encore de voir en quoi les paroles et les actes d’Obama, ces derniers jours, incarnent les valeurs américaines. Il est beaucoup plus aisé de voir dans ce qui s’est passé et se passe, les effets de la doctrine Obama telle qu’elle avait été définie par des critiques de Barack Obama en 2009. Il est beaucoup plus aisé de voir dans les paroles et les actes d’Obama, ce qu’on peut décrire, au mieux, comme une absence totale de sens du commandement, ou comme, pour citer les mots de Nial Ferguson ("Wanted: A Grand Strategy for America, newsweek.com, 02-13-2011), un « échec colossal ».
La contagion, dont certains pensaient qu’elle ne surviendrait pas, est survenue, mais a été grandement aidée par des pratiques qu’il faudra analyser jusqu’au bout.
Des dictatures hostiles font face à des troubles, mais bien moins que des pays alliés, et les dictatures peuvent recourir aux moyens de répression les plus brutaux. La plupart d’entre elles survivront sans doute. Nombre de pays alliés n’auront pas cette chance. L’Iran place ses pions : deux bateaux de guerre iraniens viennent de franchir le canal de Suez après avoir remonté la mer Rouge et fait escale à Djeddah, à soixante kilomètres de la Mecque. Que se passera-t-il si la Jordanie tombe, si l’Egypte est bientôt gouvernée par un mélange de généraux, d’islamistes et de nationalistes radicaux, et si l’Arabie Saoudite considère que le « cheval fort » est désormais à Téhéran ? Que se passera-t-il si le détroit d’Hormuz et le Bab El-Mandeb sont contrôlés par des forces hostiles à l’Occident ?
La volonté américaine de rendre le monde plus sûr pour la démocratie, énoncée plusieurs fois au cours du vingtième siècle par des Présidents américains, semble toujours plus avoir laissé place, depuis deux ans, à une volonté de rendre le monde plus sûr pour les puissances hostiles aux Etats-Unis.
Saturday, February 26, 2011
Quelle Europe en 2030 ?
LE président du Conseil européen, Herman Van Rompuy, a reçu le 8 mai 2010 un rapport intitulé « Projet pour l’Europe à l’horizon 2030. Les défis à relever et les chances à saisir. [1] » Ce document est le fruit du travail d’un groupe de 12 « sages » [2] réunis entre décembre 2008 et avril 2010 sous la présidence de Felipe Gonzalez, ancien président du gouvernement espagnol. Quel tableau brosse-t-il de l’Union européenne ?
Le Mexique : besoin de réformes
LE Mexique est un des très grands pays émergents : le 5ème en termes de PIB après les BRIC (Brésil, Russie, Inde, Chine), il devance la Corée du Sud et, plus largement, la Turquie et l’Indonésie [1]. Son PIB par habitant est proche de celui de la Russie, équivalent à celui du Brésil (qu’il devance encore de 27 % en parité de pouvoir d’achat - PPA), et dépasse largement ceux des grands pays asiatiques.
US military advisers in Cyrenaica. Qaddafi's loses his air force
Hundreds of US, British and French military advisers have arrived in Cyrenaica, Libya's eastern breakaway province, military sources report exclusively. This is the first time America and Europe have intervened militarily in any of the popular upheavals rolling through the Middle East since Tunisia's Jasmine Revolution in early January. The advisers, including intelligence officers, were dropped from warships and missile boats at the coastal towns of Benghazi and Tobruk Thursday Feb. 24, for a threefold mission:
Hints for Asset Hunters
The Swiss government’s decision, on February 12, to freeze Hosni Mubarak’s assets in Swiss banks will probably cause sleepless nights to other Middle Eastern rulers who liked to keep themselves in the sun and their assets in the dark. (Cynics will wonder what the Swiss government suddenly discovered that it didn’t know about them before. ) Still, old coffers may be seized, but new coffers will soon be open for business.
There were unconfirmed estimates regarding the magnitude of Mubarak’s personal wealth, ranging from $5 billion to $70 billion, and deposited in Britain, the United States and France. His family is also rumored to own property in London, Paris, Dubai and the U.S. Deposed Tunisian President Zine El Abidine Ben Ali was more blatant. His wife fled the country with one-and-a-half tons of gold, worth more than $55 million, probably just the latest addition to what the couple accumulated and deposited overseas during Ben Ali’s 20 years of rule.
There were unconfirmed estimates regarding the magnitude of Mubarak’s personal wealth, ranging from $5 billion to $70 billion, and deposited in Britain, the United States and France. His family is also rumored to own property in London, Paris, Dubai and the U.S. Deposed Tunisian President Zine El Abidine Ben Ali was more blatant. His wife fled the country with one-and-a-half tons of gold, worth more than $55 million, probably just the latest addition to what the couple accumulated and deposited overseas during Ben Ali’s 20 years of rule.
China's Great Firewall Father Speaks Out
The father of the Great Firewall of China (GFW) has signed up to six virtual private networks (VPNs) that he uses to access some of the websites he had originally helped block. "I have six VPNs on my home computer," says Fang Binxing, 50, president of the Beijing University of Posts and Telecommunications. "But I only try them to test which side wins: the GFW or the VPN. "I'm not interested in reading messy information like some of that anti-government stuff." There's a popular joke circulating the Chinese mainland about Mark Zuckerberg's surprise visit to Beijing around Christmas last year: The frustrated Facebook president is said to have pleaded with local Chinese entrepreneurs to show him how to beat the Great Firewall.
Israel on High Alert for Iranian Warships’ Suez Transit Carrying Missiles for Hizballah
Cairo’s approval Friday, Feb. 18 for two Iranian warships to transit the Suez Canal on their way to the Mediterranean has brought Israel and Iran closer than ever before to a naval collision at sea. Debkafile reports: Israel has learned that the Iranian cruiser Kharg is carrying long-range missiles for Hizballah which it plans to unload at a Syrian port or Beirut harbor. The Egyptian State-run news agency MENA however said Friday that Egyptian authorities approved a request from Iranian diplomats, because they offered assurances that the two Iranian warships don’t carry weapons or nuclear or chemical material. The diplomats say the two vessels are headed to Syria for training. US State Department spokesman P.J Crowley said he was “highly skeptical” of the Syrian claim that the two ships’ visit was for training.
What Cargo May Be Aboard Iranian Warships Transiting the Suez Canal?
Iran’s leaders are closely watching the progress of two of their navy warships, the 1500 ton frigate Alvand and the 33,000 ton refueling and supply ship Kharg, through the Suez Canal. They reportedly will arrive at a Syrian port in a few days. The passage of Iranian warships into the Mediterranean is rightfully viewed, in itself, as a provocative act by Israel and by NATO naval forces. Iranian warships haven't been seen in the Mediterranean since the 1970s. But, perhaps, there should also be great concern with the cargoes these warships may be carrying. What a better way could Iran have to circumvent UN and like-minded country sanctions.
First heads roll in Bogota corruption scandal
The Bogota comptroller and a House representative from the capital are barred from holding public office for 20 and 15 years respectively for fraudulently granting public contracts. The double sentence is the first in what is expected to be a number of disciplinary and penal convictions in the capital's biggest fraud scandal in recent history, which also implicates Bogota Mayor Samuel Moreno and his brother, Senator Ivan Moreno.
Colombia's inspector general, who convicted the comptroller and the representative, said the behavior of both men in the scandal is like "an atomic bomb on public morale." According to testimonies, private companies were unable to receive concessions of public works without granting a percentage of the profits to Bogota officials. The officials also financially benefited from delays in the construction of, for example, the city's mass transit system. The corruption scandal has seriously affected the authority of the city hall; the socialist mayor can count on the disapproval of a record-breaking 85% of the Bogotanos, according to a poll released Friday.
Colombia's inspector general, who convicted the comptroller and the representative, said the behavior of both men in the scandal is like "an atomic bomb on public morale." According to testimonies, private companies were unable to receive concessions of public works without granting a percentage of the profits to Bogota officials. The officials also financially benefited from delays in the construction of, for example, the city's mass transit system. The corruption scandal has seriously affected the authority of the city hall; the socialist mayor can count on the disapproval of a record-breaking 85% of the Bogotanos, according to a poll released Friday.
Middle East Chaos: What To Learn And What To Expect
There are many different kinds of revolution; some more effective than others. Telling the difference between a successful revolution and a failed revolution can be tricky. Often, on the surface, they look exactly the same. The secret is to set aside what we would “like” to see, and be brutally honest about what was actually accomplished in the course of the dissenting action. Has power been fully rescinded by the offending government or regime to the people, or, to yet another corrupt bureaucracy with a slightly different face? Have the puppet strings of corporate globalists been severed from your country, or do they remain strong as ever? Has ANY corrupt official actually been punished for the crimes that led to the insurgency in the first place, or, did they fly off scot-free to their million dollar villas in Ecuador, drinking mojitos in wicker recliners and watching the disaster they created unfold on CNN? Who ultimately benefited from the event?
Police, Anti-Government Protesters Clash in Zagreb
Police used tear gas and batons to push back protesters, some of whom threw bottles, rocks and fireworks as they attempted to reach Zagreb's main Saint Mark's Square. Reports said that 11 were arrested, including the protest organiser. Protesters rallied in the streets leading to the main square, where the government and parliament are headquartered, but were pushed back because rallies in the square have been banned since 2005. The rally was organised on the social networking site Facebook by the Alliance for Change, who demanded that Jandranka Kosor step down as prime minister and president of the ruling Croatian Democratic Union, HDZ.
Romania: Top Customs Official Arrested on Corruption Charges
Cornel Costea, the head of the customs office in Ploiesti, southern Romania, was placed in 29-day custody for alleged bribe taking. Anti-corruption prosecutors say Costea accepted around €40,000 in exchange for helping a local company avoid customs controls for the merchandise it imported from Turkey. Other individuals from the Ploiesti customs office are also under investigation. This is just the latest in a series of corruption cases involving border officials. Early this month, the head of the National Customs Authority, Radu Traian Marginean, was arrested on charges of taking bribes for helping a candidate obtain the post of customs chief at an office in northwest Romania. Furthermore, more than one hundred border police have been detained for alleged involvement in smuggling cigarettes from Serbia, Moldova and Ukraine.
Iraq Protests: Violence Clashes Between Demonstrators and Security Forces
The unrest sweeping across the Mideast and the Arab world deepened its grip on Iraq today as tens of thousands of protesters took to the streets in 10 cities across the nation and security forces turned violent in attempts to rein in the demonstrations. Protesters burned buildings, stormed government establishments and tore down concrete walls. Security forces fired into crowds, killing at least four and wounding dozens.
The demonstrations spread from north to south and east to west, reaching the northern town of Masul, where two protesters were killed, and stretching to Basra in the south, neither area a stranger to violence. In the western town of Ramadi, the day after a suicide bomber killed 11 people, another eight were wounded and one was killed in clashes between security forces and 250 demonstrators. Just north of Baghdad in Saladhi Province, five people were wounded by gunfire.
The demonstrations spread from north to south and east to west, reaching the northern town of Masul, where two protesters were killed, and stretching to Basra in the south, neither area a stranger to violence. In the western town of Ramadi, the day after a suicide bomber killed 11 people, another eight were wounded and one was killed in clashes between security forces and 250 demonstrators. Just north of Baghdad in Saladhi Province, five people were wounded by gunfire.
Friday, February 25, 2011
Thursday, February 24, 2011
Clashes in Greece during anti-austerity demonstration
Police fired tear gas near the Greek Parliament yesterday as clashes broke out with stone-throwing protesters during a demonstration against austerity measures, an AFP reporter said. The confrontation occurred near the finance ministry with police seeking to block protesters from approaching the building as thousands marched in Athens and other major cities in this year’s first general strike against wage and pension cuts. At least 36,000 people according to police demonstrated in Athens, Thessaloniki and the port of Piraeus to reject economic policies dictated by Greece’s narrow bankruptcy rescue by the EU and the IMF last year. With the fresh protests against Greek austerity measures yesterday, the country’s Prime Minister insisted that Greece will repay its bailout loan even as it seeks an extension.
Thousands protest against high food prices in Delhi
A steady stream of protesters, carrying red flags, has been marching through the streets of central Delhi since early morning. The rally has led to massive traffic jams in the city. Trade unions who have called the rally say nearly 40,000 people will attend a meeting at the Ramlila grounds. Thousands will then march to parliament, they say. Security is tight across the city with thousands of policemen deployed at the rally ground and along the route of the march.
Media Demonizes Gaddafi as Pentagon Prepares Attack
Tthe United States has specific instructions to intervene militarily in Libya under the cover of providing humanitarian assistance. Less than 24 hours after our report, the Pentagon has announced it is looking at “all options” in dealing with the Libyan crisis. In short, it is drawing up plans to intervene. “Our job is to give options from the military side, and that is what we are thinking about now,” a Pentagon official told CNN. “We will provide the president with options should he need them.” “This department is always doing prudent planning for any number of contingencies,” Pentagon spokesman Col. Dave Lapan told reporters. “The president said yesterday that the United States is discussing with allies and partners a full range of options regarding the situation in Libya. But we are not going to discuss what any of those specific options might be.”
Obama Press Secretary Jay Carney dressed up the coming military attack as “a range of options on how to protect American citizens in Libya and compel the Libyan government to stop attacking its own people,” according to CNN.
Obama Press Secretary Jay Carney dressed up the coming military attack as “a range of options on how to protect American citizens in Libya and compel the Libyan government to stop attacking its own people,” according to CNN.
Wednesday, February 23, 2011
L’héritage de Kadhafi aux marchés pétroliers
Alors que l’arrêt de certains sites de production libyens fait frémir les marchés pétroliers, le risque de contagion révolutionnaire aux autres pays de la région menace de faire flamber les cours de l’or noir. Le renversement inéluctable de Mouammar Kadhafi équivaut à la chute du Mur de Berlin pour l’Afrique du Nord. Ce sont les conséquences de ce cataclysme et son effet domino chez les grands producteurs de la région qui font trembler les marchés pétroliers de la planète. Pour nous, l’OPEP doit agir vite.
Ange Mancini pressenti pour le poste de coordonnateur national du renseignement
Le préfet Ange Mancini, premier chef du Raid, devrait être nommé mercredi coordonnateur national du renseignement à la présidence de la République, a-t-on appris mardi de source proche du dossier.
Selon cette source, qui a confirmé une information du Point.fr, M. Mancini, actuellement préfet de la Martinique, devrait être nommé en conseil des ministres en remplacement de Bernard Bajolet, nommé ambassadeur de France en Afghanistan. M. Bajolet avait été nommé à l’Elysée en juillet 2008 pour occuper ce poste crée à la suite de la publication du Livre blanc sur la défense et la sécurité nationale.
Selon cette source, qui a confirmé une information du Point.fr, M. Mancini, actuellement préfet de la Martinique, devrait être nommé en conseil des ministres en remplacement de Bernard Bajolet, nommé ambassadeur de France en Afghanistan. M. Bajolet avait été nommé à l’Elysée en juillet 2008 pour occuper ce poste crée à la suite de la publication du Livre blanc sur la défense et la sécurité nationale.
Les Etats-Unis accusés de désactiver à outrance des sites web
Le GNSO (Icann) accuse le FBI, Interpol et les polices d’Etat américaines de procéder à des désactivations "unilatérales" de sites, en faisant fi des structures existantes. La gouvernance de l’internet est menacée par l’interventionnisme des autorités américaines qui procédent à des désactivations "unilatérales" de sites, passant outre les structures mondialement reconnues, accuse Stéphane Van Gelder, à la tête de l’instance internationale GNSO.
Sunday, February 20, 2011
Il a chargé les Services de Renseignements d’établir la liste des revendications populaires : Bouteflika prépare son retour et s’apprête à éjecter Ouyahia
Le Président Bouteflika a chargé les Services de Renseignements de sonder la population algérienne afin d’identifier ses revendications et de mesurer sa cote de popularité auprès des Algériens, rapporte la chaîne qatarie «Al Jazeera» citant des «sources bien informées». Selon cette source, le Chef de l’Etat a chargé les Service secrets de lui transmettre des rapports qui expliqueraient la grogne du front sociale ainsi que pour identifier les revendications des jeunes, qui se sont soulevé en janvier dernier.
BAHRAIN: A Nervous Watch
Latest reports from Bahrain speak of considerable tension marked by anti-King and anti-Government slogans shouted by thousands of Shia mourners attending the funerals of seven persons killed during a crack-down by the riot police on a group of young people demonstrating against the Government from the Pearl Square since February 14, 2011.
2. The protest movement started as a movement of solidarity with the Egyptian youth on February 14, turned into an anti-Government movement on February 15 after the death of two Shias due to alleged use of force by the Police and then turned into an anti-King movement on February 17 after the brutal dispersal of the protesters from the Pearl Square by the riot police on the night intervening February 16/17.
2. The protest movement started as a movement of solidarity with the Egyptian youth on February 14, turned into an anti-Government movement on February 15 after the death of two Shias due to alleged use of force by the Police and then turned into an anti-King movement on February 17 after the brutal dispersal of the protesters from the Pearl Square by the riot police on the night intervening February 16/17.
Civil War in Libya: Gaddafi Uses Pak & BD Mercenaries?
Latest reports indicate a state of civil war in the cities of Benghazi (1000 kms from Tripoli) and nearby al-Bayda in Eastern Libya with the protesters running into thousands and the Libyan army fighting each other with no holds barred. Despite the use of mortars and heavy guns by the Libyan Army, which has allegedly been using mercenaries from Pakistan, Bangladesh and Chad, the protesters, who are also allegedly aided by mercenaries from Egypt and other countries, have managed to overrun the local Brigade headquarters and capture large quantities of arms and ammunition with which they are fighting. Some reports, not yet confirmed, say that the armed opponents of Col. Muammar Gaddafi and the Arab mercenaries supporting them have managed to push out of these cities the Libyan army units deployed there and the mercenaries being used by them. Over a hundred persons are reported to have been killed in the fighting so far. There have been no reports of any major incidents in Tripoli, the capital.
Brotherhood Not Extremist, Intel Leaders Say
The Muslim Brotherhood is more of an organization with extremist members than an extremist organization, America's top two intelligence officials told a Senate committee Wednesday. Director of National Intelligence James Clapper emphasized the heterogeneous nature of the Brotherhood, saying its ideology and approach varies from country to country and describing a generational gap between old-line conservatives and younger members more willing to participate in secular political systems. "This is not a monolithic organization," CIA Director Leon Panetta told the Senate Intelligence Committee. It has lawyers and professionals among its ranks, so while "it is clear that within the Muslim Brotherhood there are extremist elements," it's difficult to label the organization as a whole.
Obama Requests Funding for Venezuelan Opposition in 2012 Budget
The US government is setting the terrain for the 2012 presidential elections in Venezuela, soliciting funding to back anti-Chavez groups and help prepare a "candidate" to oppose Chavez. Republicans call for an "embargo" against the oil-producing nation. This week, US President Barack Obama presented Congress with a $3.7 trillion dollar budget for 2012, the most expensive budget in United States history. Within his massive request, which proposes cuts in important social programs and federal jobs throughout the country, is a partition for special funding for anti-Chavez groups in Venezuela.
Al-Qaida No. 2 issues video after Egypt upheaval
Al-Qaida's deputy leader, Ayman al-Zawahri, issued the terror network's first message since the upheaval began in Egypt, saying the country's rule has long "deviated from Islam" and warning that democracy "can only be non-religious." The wave of popular protests that ousted Egypt's president, Hosni Mubarak, appeared to have caught al-Qaida off guard. The terror group had long called for the destruction of Mubarak's regime — and al-Zawahri, an Egyptian doctor, was part of a militant uprising against Mubarak in the 1990s that was crushed. But the demonstrations were led by secular, liberal activists calling for greater democracy — in stark contrast to the Islamic state that al-Zawahri and al-Qaida call for. In past videos and messages, al-Zawahri has frequent denounced democracy because it replaces God's laws with man's.
In the 34-minute videotape issued Friday, al-Zawahri makes no mention on the protests or Mubarak's fall. The video is dated to the Islamic lunar month of Safar, which corresponds with the dates Jan. 5-Feb. 3. It gives no more specific date for its creation.
In the 34-minute videotape issued Friday, al-Zawahri makes no mention on the protests or Mubarak's fall. The video is dated to the Islamic lunar month of Safar, which corresponds with the dates Jan. 5-Feb. 3. It gives no more specific date for its creation.
Egypt is no longer committed to an alliance with Israel against Iran
A year and a half ago, an Israel Navy submarine crossed the Suez Canal on its way from Haifa to the Red Sea, where it conducted an exercise, and back. The unusual voyage reflected the growing strategic cooperation between Israel and Egypt, which aimed a menacing message at Iran. The submarine's crossing of the waterway demonstrated how quickly Israel could deploy its deterrent near Iran's shores, with the tacit support of Egypt. Once more, the canal is being used to deliver a message of deterrence - but this time the direction is reversed. Egypt is allowing Iranian warships to cross the canal, on their way to Syrian ports. Israel was publicly critical of the passage - arguing that it is a provocative move - but Egypt ignored the pressures and granted the Iranian navy permission to pass, symbolizing the change to the regional balance of power following the fall of President Hosni Mubarak.
Revolutionary Guards Commanders Say They Won’t Fire on Iranian People
Con Coughlin is reporting that he has seen a copy of an alleged letter from earlier this month addressed to the chief of the Iranian Revolutionary Guards Corps by senior IRGC officers in Tehran, Tabriz , Isfahan and Qom where they state they will not fire on Iranian protestors and “use your authority over the Basij to order them to leave their truncheons at home next time.” “We promise our people that we will not shoot nor beat our brothers who are seeking to express legitimate protest against the policies and conduct of their leader,” it says. They also state that the use of violence to crush the protestors is a violation of Islam. He reports that Western diplomats have confirmed the letter’s authenticity. He has published the full letter here.
The Middle East and Then the World
Beginning in North Africa, now unfolding in the Middle East and Iran, and soon to spread to Eastern Europe and Asia, the globalist fueled color revolutions are attempting to profoundly transform entire regions of the planet in one sweeping move. It is an ambitious gambit, perhaps even one born of desperation, with the globalists’ depravity and betrayal on full display to the world with no opportunity to turn back now.
To understand the globalists’ reasoning behind such a bold move, it helps to understand their ultimate end game and the obstacles standing between them and their achieving it.
To understand the globalists’ reasoning behind such a bold move, it helps to understand their ultimate end game and the obstacles standing between them and their achieving it.
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)