Turkey’s 2012 Re-Adjustment to Post-”Zero Problems” in the Aftermath of the Arab Awakenings

Turkey’s emergence in the 21st century as a Middle Eastern power has been in the making for the last decade, but only fully crystallized in the wake of the “Arab Awakenings” this year. Unlike Iran and Saudi Arabia that actively supported counter-protest movements to deflect attention away from their own domestic shortcomings, Turkey’s vibrant civil society nudged the government onto the side of the newly emerging Arab democratic movements. Turkey has earned a reputation under the Justice and Development Party (AKP) as being a pragmatic and active actor in the Middle East. Despite the successes of AKP’s foreign policy in the last decade in opening new markets and expanding into its neighborhood through a policy of “zero problems with neighbors,” the Arab spring of 2011 has forced Ankara to confront the new realities of the Middle East. Ankara is now in need of a new foreign policy, post-Arab awakenings.

Tunisia: There’s Still Hope for Democracy Because The Majority Doesn’t Want Islamism

Is Tunisia, the Arab world’s historically most moderate country in social and intellectual terms, headed for Islamism or some kind of difficult but democratic future? I want to rethink my conclusions on this point. Or is it just the timeline that needs to be extended? It should be stressed that Tunisia has more prospects for achieving democracy and avoiding radical Islamism than do Egypt or Libya. In Egypt, 60 percent of the vote was obtained by the Muslim Brotherhood and Salafists in the first round, with claims of up to 75 percent in the second round. Excluding Christian voters, that means somewhere between two-thirds and 80 percent of Egyptian Muslims support radical Islamist parties. Only the army, which is eager to suppress moderates but would rather make deals than fight the Islamists, stands in the way of radicalization. In Libya, the political situation is far less clear but radicals have the guns while tribal and regional conflicts are likely to promote conflict and extremism.

Turkish-US Relations in 2011 and Beyond: There May be Trouble Ahead

The year 2011 saw a “regression toward the mean” in Turkey’s relation with the United States. 2010 had the deadly Israeli flotilla raid, the misfired Iranian nuclear negotiations, and the WikiLeaks’ revelations about the negative views held by some American diplomats regarding Turkey’s leaders who were described as dangerous extremists, megalomaniacal, and corrupt. The Turkey-U.S relationship has rebounded nicely in 2011, with Ankara and Washington collaborating on a range of issues. But danger signs abound beneath the surface, suggesting that 2012 and beyond might not be as rosy.

A Very Peaceful Russian Revolt

The calls by the “moderate left” for passively following behind the liberals are supposedly based on the need to “work among the people”, to go where the masses are. But how, and with whom, are the forces of the left to set out after these ardently pursued masses? With badly printed leaflets full of abstract slogans?
The December outburst of street protest in Russia was the natural result of a growing discontent which for several years had been building up but which had not found a means of expression. Nevertheless, it would have been hard to predict that a crisis would break out over the results of elections to the essentially decorative State Duma, which has no power (its members, including the opposition, are mere puppets of the administration). Just a few weeks ago, when I discussed the looming political crisis with colleagues at our institute, we could not identify what might serve as the detonator for an explosion. The general conclusion to which participants in the discussion came was that the pretext for mass protests would be something ridiculous, some vulgar everyday transgression by the authorities.

UK prepares emergency measures for euro collapse to prevent an influx of people and money

Ministers are considering draconian plans to prevent a flood of money and people heading to Britain from Europe if the ailing single currency collapses. Experts fear that the collapse of the euro would lead to the widespread movement of both people and money – with potentially damaging consequences for Britain if left unchecked. The Treasury has drawn up contingency plans to prevent investors shifting huge sums of cash from the Eurozone to Britain – amid fears it could lead to a surge in the value of the Pound.

Chinese Politburo’s Official Statement: The West tries out old tricks in Russia

Long before the State Duma elections of Dec 4, the ultra-rightist and liberal mass media, collaborating with anti-Russian elements in the West, forecast that the ruling United Russia party would suffer a serious defeat.
They organized all sorts of sociological surveys to support this thoroughly planned campaign and to push their “predictions” on the “crisis” facing Russian leaders and “sharply declining rating” of Prime Minister Vladimir Putin and President Dmitry Medvedev. The anti-Putin campaign became really vociferous when the United Russia congress officially and unanimously approved Putin as its nominee for the presidential election in March 2012. It is true that the election results showed the correlation of political forces and sentiments in Russia, which is experiencing the difficult strategic consequences of the disintegration of the erstwhile Soviet Union and the impact of the global economic crisis.

Chávez denuncia plan de la derecha para cantar fraude en presidenciales de 2012

El presidente de la República, Hugo Chávez, denunció este miércoles que la derecha venezolana y sus asesores de Estados Unidos adelantan un plan para cantar fraude en las elecciones presidenciales del 7 de octubre de 2012 que, además de desconocer la victoria de la Revolución, provocaría un clima de violencia en el país. “Lo que está ocurriendo en Rusia (desconocimiento de resultados de elecciones parlamentarias) lo van a tratar de aplicar aquí, porque esta gente (derecha) sabe que no van a poder llegar a Miraflores por la vía electoral, no van a poder ganar las elecciones presidenciales del 7 de octubre, es política y matemáticamente imposible que lo logren”, dijo Chávez Frías, durante el acto de de salutación de fin de año a las unidades militares de la Fuerza Armada Nacional Bolivariana, en Fuerte Tiuna, Caracas.

Intelligence stratégique et notation financière: l’interview de Guy Gweth dans “Les Afriques”

Les acteurs politiques auraient-ils oublié que la notation financière est la fille aînée de l’investigation économique et financière? C’est en réactivant cette filiation technique que Guy Gweth, expert en intelligence économique et stratégique chez Knowdys, décrypte les grands enjeux, les vraies ficelles et l’impact réel de la notation financière sur les Etats, les entreprises et les collectivités locales. Voici l’intégralité de son interview parue le 24/11/11 dans l’hebdomadaire financier Les Afriques, n°180, page 20.

Les Afriques: Les partisans de la notation disent qu’elle sert à faire baisser les coûts d’intermédiation dans par exemple les emprunts obligatoires. Votre avis ?

Intelligence économique en RDC | Le ministre de l’économie suit les alertes de KNOWDYS

Depuis 2010, la République démocratique du Congo (RDC) fait partie des 11 pays qui bénéficient des alertes de KNOWDYS (24h/24, 7j/7) sur les marchés des matières premières. Il a fallu attendre la nomination de Jean-Pierre Daruwezi, ancien chef des Renseignements congolais, au poste de ministre de l’économie, pour voir un début d’application des préconisations de l’agence africaine d’intelligence économique visant à sécuriser l’approvisionnement en denrées alimentaires dans ce pays.

Chine-Afrique : les meilleurs succès de 2011

Vu de Chine, les meilleurs succès de la coopération sino-africaine en 2011 tiennent en quatre points relayés par l’agence Chine Information : l’aide à la sécurité alimentaire durable (1), le renforcement de l’économie africaine face à la crise de la zone Euro (2), la lutte contre le changement climatique (3) et la construction du principal stade de la CAN 2012 au Gabon (4).

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Que gagne la France à aider l’Afrique ?

C’est à juste titre qu’en cette fin d’année 2011, de nombreux sénateurs français s’inquiètent de la capacité de Paris à honorer ses engagements entre 2012 et 2015 en matière d’aide publique du développement. […] Mais les mesures pour endiguer la déréglementation ou déjouer les avantages tirés des paradis fiscaux ou encore la prise de pertes par les banques qui ont fait des arbitrages hasardeux sur des marchés spéculatifs ne sont toujours pas à l’ordre du jour…

Senegal’s Presidential Elections: two months out

Senegal will hold presidential elections on February 26, pitting incumbent President Abdoulaye Wade against an emboldened but divided opposition. The elections could be quite bitterly contested. On Friday, Wade officially accepted the nomination of his party, but both inside and outside the country, his candidacy is provoking condemnation. Critics argue that the president, who is nearing the end of his second term, should not run again; Wade argues that because two-term limits for the presidency were introduced only after his first term began, he is eligible for one more term. I do not anticipate that any legal obstacle – including a ruling by the country’s courts – will prevent Wade from running, but the level of domestic and international outcry is significant. Senegal is not headed for chaos, in my view, but the country’s stability could be shaken in the months to come.

Polisario- Sahel: les dessous de l’agacement de Bamako

Le coup de gueule des autorités maliennes contre le Polisario n’a pas surpris beaucoup de monde, et en particulier les spécialistes Occidentaux qui scrutent ce qui se passe au Sahel. L’exaspération de Bamako contre le Polisario est l’aboutissement de plusieurs mois d’agitation, dans le nord malien, de dizaines de combattants du Front anti-marocain qui lutte, avec le soutien de l’Algérie, pour l’indépendance de la région du Sahara Occidental. La dernière incursion du Polisario au Mali, qui a fait un mort et plusieurs personnes enlevées, a été l’infiltration de trop. Il n’en fallait pas plus pour que Bamako, qui a déjà retiré il y a deux ans sa reconnaissance de la RASD, la république autoproclamée par le Polisario, décide de mettre fin à ce qu’il considère comme des opérations de rodéo sur son territoire.

Colombia: The Soul Mates

Colombia is using diplomacy to entice a hostile leftist government in Venezuela to help weaken FARC. The leftist rebels have about half their forces operating along the 2,850 kilometers long Venezuelan border (most of the rest use the Panama or Ecuador borders). Over the past few years, things have been changing along the Venezuelan border as police on the Venezuelan side increase their pressure on the drug smugglers, and any leftist rebels that will not behave. The civilians on the Venezuelan side are in an uproar about the violence, and the government has to act, or face a popular uprising. The Venezuelan president and senior officials are sympathetic to the political goals of FARC (and the smaller ELN), but not the gangster methods the two organizations use inside Venezuela. FARC and ELN have tried to eliminate the bad behavior of their gunmen in Venezuela. But this is often not enough, because FARC and ELN are recognized as international outlaws (because of connections with drug gangs) and Venezuela has to limit official cooperation.

Tensions Grow Between Hamas And Syria

Middle Eastern media is reporting on what are described as growing tensions between Hamas and the Syrian regime as well as assertions of an unusual criticism of Global Muslim Brotherhood leader Youssef Qaradawi by a Hamas political leader. According to a report on the Albawaba website:

US cannot rely on Pakistan for counterterrorism operations

In CJ Radin's recent Threat Matrix report on US counterterrorism (CT) strategy, one area that stood out was the Obama administration's emphasis on partnering with Pakistan to defeat al Qaeda and allied terror groups, as set forth below in the "National Strategy for Counterterrorism":

Adbullah Azzam Brigades denies responsibility for Damascus suicide attacks

The Abdullah Azzam Brigades, an affiliate of al Qaeda in Iraq which operates throughout the Middle East, has denied all involvement in the recent suicide attack in the Syrian capital that killed 40 people. The terror group accused the Syrian government of attempting to deflect attention from its brutal crackdown on protesters that has killed more than 5,000 people. The terror group denied its involvement in the twin suicide attacks in Damascus that targeted security headquarters on Dec. 23. More than 40 people were reported killed and scores more were wounded in the blasts. The Syrian government immediately blamed al Qaeda, but no group claimed credit for the attack.

Iran threatens to stop Gulf oil if sanctions widened

Iran has threatened to stop the flow of oil through the Strait of Hormuz if foreign sanctions were imposed on its crude exports over its nuclear ambitions, a move that could trigger military conflict with economies dependent on Gulf oil. Western tensions with Iran have increased since a November 8 report by the UN nuclear watchdog saying Tehran appears to have worked on designing an atom bomb and may still be pursuing research to that end. Iran strongly denies this and says it is developing nuclear energy for peaceful purposes. Iran has defiantly expanded nuclear activity despite four rounds of UN sanctions meted out since 2006 over its refusal to suspend sensitive uranium enrichment and open up to UN nuclear inspectors and investigators. Many diplomats and analysts believe only sanctions targeting Iran's lifeblood oil sector might be painful enough to make it change course, but Russia and China - big trade partners of Tehran - have blocked such a move at the United Nations.

China’s Noisy Subs Get Busier - And Easier to Track

The military’s latest secret assessment of China’s rapidly modernizing submarines has good news and bad news for the U.S. Navy. On one hand, the roughly 60 submarines in the People’s Liberation Army Navy (PLAN) fleet are spending more and more time on combat-ready patrols — signaling China’s increasing naval competence and growing seriousness about influencing the western Pacific Ocean. On the other hand, the flurry of undersea activity gives American forces more opportunities to tail and examine Chinese subs. And U.S. analysts discovered a silver lining in the gathering strategic storm clouds. Chinese submarines are a hell of a lot noisier than anyone expected. The sound you hear is the Pacific balance of power tipping in Washington’s favor.

How Mexico’s Drug Cartels Stay Networked

Arranging drug sales on a cellphone, cryptic email or even a pager? That’s strictly for the small-time dealer. If you’re a Mexican drug cartel, you have your own radio network. Since 2006, the cartels have maintained an encrypted DIY radio network that stretches across nearly all 31 Mexican states, even down south into Guatemala. The communications infrastructure of the narco-gangs that have turned Mexico into a gangster’s paradise consists of “professional-grade” radio antennas, signal relays and simple handheld radios that cost “millions of dollars” — and which the Mexican authorities haven’t been able to shut down. If it sounds like a military-grade communications apparatus, it should. The notorious Zetas, formerly the enforcers for the Gulf Cartel and now its chief rival, were born out of Mexican Special Forces.

Aftershock Video of the Veracruz Bus Attack

A toll of 16 people left for dead by sicarios in the north of the Mexican state of Veracruz.  The attacks occurred near the border of Tamaulipas in the municipalities of Pánuco and Tantoyuca.
 
"It is presumed that buses were intercepted at dawn at different times," said the spokesman of the Government of Veracruz, Gina Domínguez. "They are interrogating  witnesses to find out what was the motive that led the attack on these buses." he added.

Governor Javier Duarte condemned the acts and ordered reinforced surveillance in the northern part of the state to provide greater protection to the Veracruz in the region. The Chief Executive sent his condolences to the families of the victims and declared his determination to continue towards establishing  tranquility for the inhabitants.

Arab League monitors to visit 3 more Syrian cities

Monitors from the Arab League will visit three additional cities in Syria on Wednesday to gauge whether the country is ending a bloody crackdown on protesters.Observers will visit the flashpoint cities of Daraa, Hama and Idlib, said Alaa Shalaby, a member of the Arab League advance team. They will also spend a second day in the besieged city of Homs. Ahead of the monitors visit in Daraa, violence erupted. Four Syrian forces members were killed and 12 wounded after defectors ambushed their convoy, according to the opposition activist group Syrian Observatory for Human Rights. The Arab League fact-finding team is monitoring an Arab League initiative that calls for President Bashar al-Assad’s security forces to withdraw from cities, release detainees and end violence.