Look Out Below – The Nightmarish Decline Of The Euro Has Begun

The euro is a dying currency.  On Thursday, the EUR/USD fell below 1.28 for the first time since September 2010.  In fact, as I write this the EUR/USD is sitting at 1.2791.  Back in July, the EUR/USD was over 1.45.  But this is just the beginning.  The euro is going to go a lot lower.  At this point, there are several major European nations that are on the verge of default, the European financial system is overflowing with debt and toxic assets, and most major European banks are leveraged about as badly as Lehman Brothers was when it collapsed.  Most Americans simply do not grasp the gravity of what is happening.  Just because the Dow is sitting above 12000 and a few U.S. economic numbers have improved slightly does not mean that everything is going to be okay.  As I wrote about recently, the EU has a bigger economy than we do and they have a bigger banking system than we do.  U.S. banks are massively exposed to European sovereign debt and European banking debt.  When the financial system of Europe collapses and the euro falls apart it is going to rock the entire planet.  So you better look out below - the euro is coming down and it is coming down hard.  After the euro implodes, nothing is every going to be the same again.
So how far are we going to see the euro decline?

Wave of shootings baffle Swedish police

A new wave of execution-style shootings in Sweden's third largest city has left police puzzled, raising concerns that Malmo has become a magnet for gang-related killings. On Thursday dozens of police took to the streets in the southern Swedish city of 250,000 to try calm the public and to collect tips about the attacks, which come only a year after a suspected serial shooter was arrested there. "We've never experienced anything like this before. It's exceptional that there have been so many murders in such a short period of time," police spokesman Lars-Hakan Lindholm said. "People are worried of course and want to talk about it." In less than six weeks, five people have been shot dead in execution-style killings, prompting local police to ask for back-up from national investigators and for Malmo Mayor Ilmar Reepalu to call on the country's justice minister to implement tougher gun laws.

Urabeños demuestran su poder regional

El comercio, las fincas bananeras, las carreteras y las calles de los pueblos están deshabitadas porque todos las personas tienen miedo de salir de sus casas luego de que con llamadas, visitas y panfletos Los Urabeños decretaran un “paro armado”. En Magdalena, Antioquia, Chocó, Córdoba, Sucre y Bolívar se manifestó el poder que pocos le concedían a esta banda criminal. El paro inició a las 12:00 a.m. y se extenderá por 48 horas más. En la información que contenían los panfletos, Los Urabeños dejaban claro que toda la población debía estar de luto por la muerte de Juan de Dios Úsuga David, alias ‘Giovanni’ quien fue abatido en una operación realizada por la Policía Nacional, el pasado 1 de enero en Acandí, Chocó y que fue enterrado en Pueblo Nuevo, Necoclí. Además resaltaron que el paro había sido convocado porque en el momento de la muerte de alias ‘Giovanni’ no se le habrían respetado sus derechos y al parecer habría fusilado delante de su familia.

En el Cisen aprenden a hackear y contrahackear

La escena ha sido repetida mil veces en películas y series relacionadas con el espionaje y es ya lugar común hollywoodesco: un agente que es integrante de un organismo de inteligencia tipo la Agencia Central de Inteligencia (CIA, por sus siglas en inglés) accede a una computadora y, desde allí, penetra las defensas de un gobierno hostil o de una organización terrorista para extraer información valiosa. Al final de la trama, sus conocimientos cibernéticos terminan por ser vitales para desactivar una amenaza que puede ir desde un atentado hasta un intento de asesinato. Es un nuevo tipo de policía, una mezcla entre James Bond y un hacker, un concepto mejor identificado con la persona del agente Jack Bauer, de la exitosa serie de televisión 24. Materia de ficción, quizá. Pero hoy la idea de entrenar a agentes de inteligencia en materia cibernética ha comenzado a ser aplicada en México.

Panamá decidirá sobre la extradición a Colombia de la ex directora del DAS

El ministro de Exteriores de Panamá, Roberto Henríquez, ha adelantado que el país decidirá hacia finales de enero sobre la extradición a Colombia de la ex directora del Departamento Administrativo de Seguridad (DAS) --servicios de Inteligencia colombianos-- María del Pilar Hurtado.    En declaraciones al diario 'La Estrella', Henríquez ha explicado que la solicitud de extradición cursada por Colombia "aún está bajo evaluación para poder sustentar la decisión que se tome con toda base legal".

Las 'Maras', detrás del 50% de los homicidios en El Salvador

La policía salvadoreña informó que durante 2011 fueron asesinadas 4.354 personas en diferentes hechos de violencia en este país centroamericano, 367 más que en 2010. Asimismo anunció que la cifra de denuncias por extorsiones el año pasado disminuyeron el 20,2 % con relación a 2010. Entre uno de los "aspectos negativos" del año pasado está que "al final se nos reportan 4.354 homicidios en el año (2011), respecto a los 3.987 del año 2010, (lo que) implica un incremento de 367 hechos", reconoció en conferencia de prensa el subdirector de la Policía Nacional Civil (PNC), Mauricio Ramírez Landaverde. "No obstante, entre los aspectos positivos que podemos resaltar" es que "se continúa una tendencia a la disminución... en lo que se refiere al delito de extorsión", agregó.

Mexico Turns Up the Heat on Drug Lord Guzman

Mexico's ruling conservative party had been in power just 50 days when drug lord Joaquin Guzman slipped out of a dark prison and into Mexican folklore. Eleven years later, President Felipe Calderon's government is furiously trying to flush out the man nicknamed El Chapo - "Shorty" - to rescue its bloody war on drug cartels. Guzman's flight from a maximum security prison in a laundry cart on January 19, 2001, was a major embarrassment to Calderon's predecessor Vicente Fox, who had just begun a new era as the first National Action Party (PAN) official to lead Mexico. Now, Guzman is the greatest symbol of the cartels' defiance of Calderon, whose war unleashed a wave of gang violence that is eroding support for the PAN ahead of presidential elections on July 1. Calderon is barred by law from seeking a second term. In the last few months, authorities have arrested dozens of Guzman's henchmen, seized tons of his contraband and razed the biggest single marijuana plantation ever found in Mexico, subsequently chalked up as another setback for El Chapo.

Texas Gangs Have Evolving Relationship with Cartels

Jorge Gomez (left) was identified in a 2009 trial as a Zetas operative; police believe that he is dead. Juan Manuel Marquez Rodriguez was sentenced to prison in connection with two murders tied to the cartel.

When the Gulf Cartel was looking for tons of marijuana that went missing north of the border in October, it turned to the experts. The cartel needed people who knew their way around Hidalgo County, where the pot was stolen, and were familiar with local drug dealers. So they contracted members of Partido Revolucionario Mexicano, a U.S. prison gang based in the Rio Grande Valley that was started by Mexican citizens incarcerated in Texas.

Bolivia queda fuera de la Convención Antidroga en espera de la decisión sobre la coca

Bolivia queda fuera de la convención antidroga de la ONU de 1961, a la espera de que el organismo responda, en un período que puede durar hasta un año, a su petición de nueva adhesión con una reserva sobre la prohibición del masticado de hojas de coca. La denuncia contra la Convención Única sobre Estupefacientes de 1961 fue presentada hace medio año a la Organización de Naciones Unidas (ONU) por el Gobierno del presidente Evo Morales, pero se hace efectiva a partir del 1 de enero, confirmaron fuentes oficiales.

Combatir terrorismo y narcotráfico, propósitos de Santos para 2012

El presidente colombiano, Juan Manuel Santos Calderón, ha expresado que uno de sus propósitos el año que se avecina es seguir combatiendo al terrorismo y el narcotráfico "sin bajar la guardia ni un solo minuto". Así lo aseguró en una alocución radiotelevisada en la que hizo su tradicional saludo de Año Nuevo al país y en la que además reiteró que se ha propuesto avanzar en mejorar la seguridad, crear empleos y reducir la pobreza.

"Las armas no nos harán más libres": Medidas del MERCOSUR en contra del tráfico de armas

Son numerosas las iniciativas orientadas a controlar el tráfico ilegal de armas, tanto a nivel nacional como subregional. Brasil o Venezuela, por ejemplo, han realizado ya varias campañas y, en este último caso, hay toda una polémica nacional abierta en torno a esta cuestión. De particular interés son las iniciativas que se adopten por organismos subregionales como es el caso del MERCOSUR. La principal estrategia adoptada por este organismo para disminuir la circulación ilegal de armas y con ello mejorar los niveles de seguridad es el desarme civil voluntario. Para el próximo año está proyectado realizar un nuevo encuentro en Buenos Aires para avanzar sobre políticas comunes a escala regional, que incluyan la homologación de leyes y procedimientos y un protocolo para la destrucción de las armas. 

Venezuela: entre la inseguridad pública y la impunidad

Fruto de una cultura del odio, inspirada por el poder, ha surgido en Venezuela una violencia salvaje, descontrolada y ajena a toda racionalidad. Cada día mueren en Venezuela unas 60 personas de media, víctimas de la violencia, una de las cifras más altas del mundo en homicidios. Según el Observatorio Venezolano de la Violencia (OVV), en el año 2010 hubo unos 18.000 asesinatos, casi 58 homicidios cada 100.000 habitantes, aunque según el gobierno serían 48. Para muchos analistas y observadores independientes, el gobierno de Caracas trata de maquillar las cifras y minimizar el impacto real que la delincuencia y la criminalidad tienen en el país. Además, si uno sigue los medios de comunicación oficiales observará que pocas noticias o referencias hay acerca de este problema y cómo las autoridades de esta nación, excepto si pertenecen a la oposición, tratan de ocultar un asunto que para ellos, simplemente, no existe. El caos violento en que vive Venezuela desde hace años no existe para Chávez, es pura propaganda del "imperio" y sus detractores, "los escuálidos".

Todo por el poder en Centroamérica

Centroamérica es una tramoya en la que conviven tragedias y comedias políticas. Desde enero de 2007, las leyes e instituciones que dificultosamente construían la frágil democracia nicaragüense a partir de 1990, han sido pasto de la obsesión continuista del presidente Daniel Ortega. Por la indolencia de una clase política corrupta, fragmentada y prebendaría, y a vista y paciencia de la comunidad internacional, Ortega ha logrado entronizarse en el poder, imitando a sus mecenas políticos y financieros: los hermanos Castro, en Cuba, y Hugo Chávez, en Venezuela. Por su parte, la presidenta Laura Chinchilla, de Costa Rica, quien ha perdido la batalla política en la Asamblea Legislativa de su país sin encontrar la forma de resolver el acuciante déficit fiscal que enfrenta su administración, ha trasladado el teatro de operaciones a una estéril disputa fronteriza con Nicaragua, poniéndole a Ortega, en "bandeja de plata", las municiones necesarias para exacerbar en Nicaragua un falso patriotismo y un nacionalismo de ocasión a los que ha sacado pingues réditos políticos, incluida su ilegal reelección.

India’s Nuclear Security Policy

On March 26-27, 2012, Seoul is hosting the 2nd Nuclear Security Summit (NSS). The first summit was held in Washington on April 13, 2010. India is participating in the Seoul summit, just as it did in the first summit. In fact, India was one of 47 participant countries at the April 2010 NSS. It had actively participated in all the preparatory Sherpa meetings for the 2010 NSS. In these Sherpa meetings, the participant countries decided the communiqué and the work plan of the 2010 NSS. On January 16-17, 2012, India is also holding the 3rd Sherpa meeting for the Seoul NSS. This is the first time that India will be holding a Sherpa meeting as part of the NSS. India did not hold any Sherpa meetings in the run-up to the 2010 NSS. Does the holding of the Sherpa meeting demonstrate that India has started playing a proactive role in the NSS process? India has been an active participant in the summit process, but is proceeding it cautiously. Organizing the Sherpa meeting should not mean a major departure from India’s nuclear security policy, which has been marked by cautious activism.

Have the Zetas Replaced the Sinaloa as Mexico's Most Powerful Cartel?

A report by a Mexican judicial official illustrates that while the country’s drug conflict has become dominated by the Sinaloa Cartel and the Zetas, the latter have established control in more territory. But this does not mean that they are now the more powerful of the two. According to a recent presentation delivered at Mexico’s National Institute of Penal Science by Cuitláhuac Salinas, director of the Assistant Attorney General’s Office of Special Investigations into Organized Crime (SIEDO), the mighty Sinaloa Cartel has lost territory to the notoriously violent Zetas drug gang. While the former allegedly operated in 23 of Mexico’s 32 sub national entities (31 states and the federal district in Mexico City) four years ago, now it is only in 16. The Zetas, meanwhile, have established themselves in 17. Salinas noted that several of these states are contested by these and other organizations, as a map accompanying his presentation (see below) illustrates. The map also shows the areas of primary influence of the four other most powerful Mexican cartels: the Gulf Cartel, the Tijuana Cartel, the Beltran Leyva Organization, and the most noteworthy successor group to the Familia Michoacana, the Knights Templar. But what is striking about the map is how little of the country is in the hands of these groups. In comparison to the mighty empires of the Zetas and Sinaloans, none of them have any kind of hegemony in more than four states, most of which are far from the border with the United States.

Paraguay Guerrilla Army Planning Colombia Retreat?

According to sources claiming contact with the leaders of Paraguay's phantom rebel army, the group is planning to withdraw from the Southern Cone and find refuge in Colombia and Venezuela. It is not the first allegation concerning links between Paraguay and these two countries. The ABC report quotes unnamed sources who maintain the Paraguayan People's Army (EPP) will withdraw from the country before the next elections in 2013. The EPP would reportedly travel first to Venezuela before settling in Colombia. The sources claim to have made contact with EPP leaders, and to have given their intelligence report to Paraguay's Interior Ministry, but were ignored. Before they leave Paraguay, the EPP plans to kidnap the former Interior Minister and the state's anti-kidnapping prosecutor, the sources told ABC.

Faking It: How the Media Manipulates the World into War

As the US and Iranian governments escalate tensions in the already volatile Straits of Hormuz, and China and Russia begin openly questioning Washington's interference in their internal politics, the world remains on a knife-edge of military tension. Far from being a dispassionate observer of these developments, however, the media has in fact been central to increasing those tensions and preparing the public to expect a military confrontation. But as the online media rises to displace the traditional forms by which the public forms its understanding of the world, many are now beginning to see first hand how the media lies the public into war.

The Pentagon to Send US Troops to Israel. Iran is the Unspoken Target

In one of the most blacked-out stories in America right now, the US military is preparing to send thousands of US troops, along with US Naval anti-missile ships and accompanying support personnel, to Israel. It took forever to find a second source for confirmation of this story and both relatively mainstream media outlets are in Israel. With one source saying the military deployment and corresponding exercises are to occur in January, the source providing most of the details suggests it will occur later this spring. Calling it not just an “exercise”, but a “deployment”, the Jerusalem Post quotes US Lt.-Gen Frank Gorenc, Commander of the US Third Air Force based in Germany. The US Commander visited Israel two weeks ago to confirm details for “the deployment of several thousand American soldiers to Israel.” In an effort to respond to recent Iranian threats and counter-threats, Israel announced the largest ever missile defense exercise in its history. Now, it’s reported that the US military, including the US Navy, will be stationed throughout Israel, also taking part.

Syria: Opposition Fails To Unify; More Calls For Intervention

The Syrian Opposition tried to further unify its ranks this past week, but failed. Instead the various factions of Syrian National Council – the main opposition front that has met most frequently with Western government officials – fell into recriminations. The problems started with the announcement of an agreement to unify both the NCB [sometimes call NCC] – National Coordination Body for Democratic Change [NCB] and the Syrian National Council [SNC] by Haytham Manaa and Burhan Ghaliun, the leaders of the two groups. Here is the first part of an announcement of the agreement put out by the NCB:

The Changing Geopolitical Environment And Tasks Before Indian Foreign Policy

Indian foreign policy is likely to face several challenges in 2012 arising out of a swiftly changing global security environment, the global economic slowdown and an unpredictable neighbourhood. Dealing with them will become that much more difficult against the backdrop of India’s own economic slowdown.
The year 2011 had many surprises. The much hailed “Arab Spring” turned into Arab turmoil. Violence seems to have become the norm in the Arab world. The future of democracy remains uncertain. Islamist Parties have registered major gains in Tunisia and Egypt. Sectarian conflict has intensified in Iraq as the US withdrew its troops from there. The Gulf countries and Israel are exceedingly worried about Iran’s nuclear programme and its rising influence in the region. Israel has hinted at military action against Iran while some Gulf countries are whispering about going nuclear if Iran goes nuclear. The Israeli-Palestinian peace process is comatose. Change of regimes took place in Morocco, Tunisia, Egypt and Libya. Syria is witnessing a bloody civil war. These trends are likely to continue in the foreseeable future. India’s energy interests and the presence of nearly six million Indians will shape the Indian response to developments in the region. India will be compelled to take a cautious approach to developments in the region.

Portugal And China: The Rise Of A New Strategic Geography?

References to the rise of the Asia-Pacific region in the 21st Century are omnipresent. “There is no region in the world that we consider more vital than the Asia-Pacific region”, said US President Barack Obama last November during his 10-day tour of Asia.1 “The Asia-Pacific has become a key driver of global politics”, US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton wrote recently.2 True to her diagnosis, in February 2009, Clinton broke with tradition and her first official overseas trip as Secretary of State was to Japan, Indonesia, South Korea, and China. It was the first time in 50 years that a US Secretary of State chose Asia, instead of Europe or the Middle East, as his or her first trip abroad.3 Clinton’s choice was a powerful symbol of the strategic decline of Europe as a consequence of the geopolitical power shift away from the Euro-Atlantic region towards the Asia-Pacific, with China as the new center of political and economic power.

Check the Downslide in India-Bangladesh Relations

For the past few years, India and Bangladesh have been enjoying a renascent friendly relationship based on shared interests and reciprocity. Under this rubric, they have been able to resolve various contentious issues as well as show a willingness to cooperate with each other for mutual benefit. Bangladesh addressed India’s security concerns by handing over a number of top Northeast insurgent leaders to India. For its part, India has reciprocated by: settling the decades-old border dispute; facilitating the provision of electricity to Dahagram and Angarpota and providing 24 hour access to these two Bangladeshi enclaves through the Teen Bigha; allowing duty free access to 10 million pieces of readymade garments from Bangladesh and removing 46 textile items from the negative list; providing Nepal and Bhutan transit access to Bangladesh, and promising to invest in Bangladesh’s infrastructure sector; and, 225 Indian firms promising to invest Rs. 558.77 million as FDI in Bangladesh.

EU-Asia Trade Relations: Getting Through The Crisis

The 2008 financial and economic crisis had its origins in the developed economies of the West but quickly spread to Asia. Liquidity issues led to a credit squeeze, with an impact on the real economy. Although developed countries were more affected than developing countries, the crisis led to a collapse in global trade to an extent that raised concerns in export-oriented Asian economies. It debunked the growing belief that Asian economies have decoupled from the West. This policy brief analyses the consequences of the ongoing financial crisis for trade and business relations between the European Union (EU) and East Asian countries. It considers the implications that a recession in the euro area might have on EU trade relations with China, Korea, Japan and the Association of South East Asian Nations (ASEAN). The new economic circumstances facing the EU and East Asia have far-reaching implications for the EU-East Asia partnership. European exports to Asia have recovered faster than imports from the region. But growing concerns over the economic outlook in East Asia threaten the upward trend in EU exports in the absence of policy efforts to conclude new trade accords. Trends in trade and investment suggest that both European and East Asian governments need to reassess their approaches to this partnership if damage is to be mitigated in the long term.

The Coming Collapse of the European Union

How could so many clever people get it so wrong? The question was recently asked by the British politician Daniel Hannan in an article on the collapse of the euro; in the coming months, the same question will be asked more and more often about Europe itself. Europe as it has been built may appear at best a huge error, and at worst a crime against the spirit of liberty that was supposed to be the initial source of inspiration for the whole edifice. The idea that it is possible to build a society based on abstract principles — without considering historical, social and economic realities, as if its members were infinitely malleable – has often led to disaster; this time is no different. The formation of this error began in the aftermath of World War II. Looking at the ruins left by Nazism and Fascism, politicians from various European countries fabricated a project meant to erase all past mistakes committed on the continent. They only repeated the mistakes. 

Syrie: Révélations accablantes d’un transfuge syrien

Que penser de la situation en Syrie ? Après les victoires des islamistes en Libye, en Tunisie et en Egypte, l’on hésite à soutenir les opposants au clan Assad. D’un autre côté, l’instabilité en Syrie, si elle se prolongeait courant 2012, ne manquerait pas d’avoir un impact négatif, notamment sur le Liban, la Jordanie et Israël ; et peut-être même au-delà, y compris en Turquie, en Irak et en Iran.

Europe on the Brink

In this documentary, Wall Street Journal editors and reporters examine the origins of Europe's debt crisis and why it spread with such ferocity to engulf much of the continent and threaten the entire world.

UE-27 PIB 2012-2013 : quelles prévisions de croissance?

Pour 2012 et 2013, quelles sont les prévisions d’Eurostat [1] pour les variations du Produit Intérieur Brut (PIB) en volume [2] des 27 pays membres de l’Union européenne? La réponse débute par une carte de l’UE-27 construite sur les prévisions de variation du PIB en volume pour l’année 2012. L’étude présente ensuite quatre graphiques sur les prévisions pour 2011 [3], 2012 et 2013 [4], afin de mettre 2012-2013 en dynamique par rapport à 2011. Enfin, un cinquième graphique visualise la répartition de la population de l’UE-27 en fonction des prévisions de variation du PIB en volume pour 2012, en % de la population totale.

Tout commence par la carte

Commençons par une vision d’ensemble spatialisée, avec une carte de l’« UE-27 : prévisions de variation du PIB en volume pour l’année 2012, en % par rapport à l’année précédente ».

Côte d’Ivoire post-conflit : les trois grands défis de la reconstruction

La crise post-électorale qu’a connue la Côte d’Ivoire apparaît comme « le point culminant » d’une décennie de conflit militaro-politique qui a rythmé la récente histoire du pays. L’élection présidentielle que tous les ivoiriens appelaient de leur vœu et que bon nombre d’africanistes avertis considéraient comme la clé de voûte du processus de sortie de crise, voire la condition sine qua non pour l’instauration d’une paix durable dans le pays, s’est révélée être la source de graves tensions. En effet, c’est le refus de Laurent Gbagbo de céder le pouvoir à son challenger Alassane Ouattara, pourtant donné vainqueur par la commission électorale indépendante ivoirienne, à la suite du deuxième tour du scrutin présidentiel – le 29 novembre 2010 - qui est à l’origine de cette crise. Les différentes initiatives diplomatiques, les nombreuses médiations sous-régionales et les appels incessants de la communauté internationale pour une sortie pacifique de la crise n’ont pu trouver d’écho favorable auprès des différents protagonistes ivoiriens. Une situation qui de mois en mois, plongera le pays entier dans un climat délétère.

Turkey preparing for an attack against Greece?

Although the Turkish political leadership is trying to convince Greece of its benevolent intentions, its acts ultimately betray the reality of its true visions. So after the start of deliveries of the first 52 offensive amphibious bridges Samur FNSS which can erase from the map in a few minutes the obstacle called Evros River and the acquisition of dozens of armored demining vehicles type Keiler, the Turkish Armed Forces completed receiving a few days ago 40 heavy HGMS (Heavy Ground Mobility Systems). Thanks to these HGMS the Turkish engineering corps can prepare the ground for the transportation of tanks or other heavy vehicles on the opposite bank of the river Evros, while of similar importance is the use of these system for landing operations for which the Turkish Army gets constantly trained opposite the Greek island of Chios.

India OKs $1.18B Deal To Buy Mica Missiles

Five months after signing a $2.2 billion deal to upgrade its French Mirage aircraft, the Indian government Jan. 4 cleared an additional $1.18 billion deal to procure Mica air-to-air missiles from France. The Indian Air Force will buy 500 Mica missiles from MBDA to mount on the 51 Mirage 200H aircraft that are to be upgraded by France's Thales and Dassault jointly with Bangalore-based Hindustan Aeronautics. The Mica deal was cleared by the Cabinet Committee on Security, the nation's top government security agency and which is chaired by the prime minister. Under the deal, MBDA will also have to execute compulsory defense offsets valued at about 30 percent of the total deal. The Indian Air Force is upgrading 51 Mirage 2000H aircraft over the next 10 years. Two aircraft have already flown to France for the upgrade and will be delivered by July 2014. The upgrade includes improved avionics, sensors, weapon capabilities and electronic warfare suite, in addition to a high-performance, multimode airborne radar with longer detection ranges. The aircraft will be fitted with a new-generation digital electronic warfare suite and a glass cockpit with most of the flight and mission parameters projected on the head-up display.

Finland to Consider Transit Permit for Patriot Missiles

The government will discuss granting a transit permit to the South Korean Defence Ministry on Wednesday in a move that likely concerns Patriot missiles found on the Thor Liberty vessel, which has been docked at Kotka Harbour since before Christmas. The government’s agenda for Wednesday includes a proposal from the Finnish Ministry of Defence to grant a transit permit to “the Republic of Korea’s Defence Acquisition Program Administration.” The agenda was published on Tuesday, but no additional information was given.
The Defence Acquisition Program Administration is a department under South Korea’s Ministry of National Defence.

South Korea Wants Impounded Patriot Missiles as Early as Possible

South Korea hopes that a shipment of Patriot missiles it purchased from Germany, currently impounded in Finland, will be turned over as soon as possible. The South Korean Ambassador to Helsinki told YLE he believes that the interruption of the shipment was the result of poor communication among the European parties involved. Long standing arms sales deals between Germany and South Korea got a new twist just before Christmas when the ship carrying the most recent shipment of missiles was held up by Finnish officials when it called at the port of Kotka. The missile shipment itself was legal, but lacked the transit papers needed to be moved in and out of Finnish territory. The vessel, the Thor Liberty, is still in Kotka and the missiles it was carrying are being stored elsewhere. South Korean Ambassador Dongsun Park told YLE on Wednesday that his country would like to take delivery of the missiles without further delay. "The delay has caused some little inconvenience. Of course, we Koreans would like to have them as early as possible for the safety of the country and for peace of the country," said Park.

Mexican drug kingpin Benjamin Arellano Felix pleads guilty to US charges in San Diego

Mexican drug kingpin Benjamin Arellano Felix pleaded guilty Wednesday to racketeering and conspiracy to launder money, avoiding the spectacle of a trial for the leader of a cartel that once smuggled hundreds of tons of cocaine and marijuana into the United States and dissolved bodies of its rivals in vats of lye. Under an agreement with federal prosecutors, Arellano Felix, 58, can be sentenced to no more than 25 years in prison — a lighter punishment than ordered for lower-ranking members of his once-mighty, Tijuana-based cartel.
Prosecutors agreed to dismiss other charges that could have brought 140 years in prison if he was convicted.
The half-hour hearing was an anticlimactic finish to the U.S. government’s pursuit of one of the world’s most powerful drug bosses during the 1990s. His cartel, with its iron-tight grip on the drug trade along California’s border with Mexico, was portrayed in the Steven Soderbergh film “Traffic” but has struggled in recent years as other cartels have become more ruthless than ever.

Saudis, Gulf states on war alert for early US-Iran clash

The armies of Saudi Arabia and fellow Gulf Cooperation Council states stood ready Thursday Jan. 5, for Washington to stand up to Iranian threats and send an aircraft carrier or several warships through the Strait of Hormuz into the Persian Gulf. Riyadh has been leaning hard on the Obama administration not to let Tehran get away with its warning to react with "full force" if the USS Stennis aircraft carrier tried to reenter the Gulf or Iran's pretensions to control the traffic transiting the world's most important oil route. Wednesday night, the Iranian parliament began drafting a bill prohibiting foreign warships from entering the Gulf without Tehran's permission. Debkafile's Washington sources report that Saudi Arabia has warned the Obama administration that Iranian leaders mean what they say; their leaders are bent on provoking a military clash with the United States at a time and place of their choosing, rather than leaving the initiative to Washington. To this end, Iranian officials are ratcheting up their belligerence day after day.

Death of Osama Bin Laden - Operation Neptune Spear

Czechs held in Zambia return home

Jan Coufal, Jiří Cetl and Michal Vébr who work for a Dutch exhibition logistics company were on a business trip to South Africa in early October when they decided to spend a few days in Zambia before returning home. It was a decision that was to change their lives. Shortly after arrival they were caught taking photographs of an old Czechoslovak plane displayed outside a military base in Lusaka, detained and charged with espionage, an offense that carries a maximum sentence of 30 years in prison.

Sri Lanka's Killing Fields

Secret Pakistan

Military tensions building up on Syria’s borders

Military tensions are building up on Syria’s borders. Wednesday, Jan. 4, Turkish military sources reported sighting an Israeli Eitan (Heron) drone in the sky above the Turkish Hawk Brigade 14 stationed on the northern Syrian border at Kirikhan in the Hatay district of southern Turkey. The Israeli drone was said to have hovered over the encampment for four hours. A request by local Turkish officers to fire anti-air missiles to down the Israeli Eitan went unanswered by the Turkish general staff until the drone was gone. According to the Turkish sources, two Turkish F-16 fighter jets were scrambled from the Diyarbakir 2nd Air Force Command Strike Center and stayed overhead as long as the Israeli drone was present.

Sunni versus Shia: The Middle East’s New Strategic Conflict

Of course, conflicts between Sunni and Shia Muslims are not at all new, but the fact that this is becoming a central feature on the regional strategic level is a dramatic shift. After all, as long as there were secular-style regimes preaching an all-inclusive Arab nationalist identity, differences between religious communities were subordinated. Once there are Islamist regimes, theology becomes central again, as it was centuries ago. However, no one should misunderstand the situation. This is fundamentally a struggle for political power and wealth. When Sunni and Shia states or movements battle they are acting as political entities not pursuing old theological disputes.

The Eurozone’s Looming Credit Crunch

While EU policymakers make arrangements for their 14th summit in the last two years, Europe’s flagging economy continues to slip deeper into recession. On Monday, the Eurozone’s Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) reported that production and new orders had declined for a 5th straight month. According to a survey of economists by Reuters, “The euro zone economy is already stuck in a recession that will last until the second quarter of 2012….They forecast the economy will probably see no growth this year.” (Reuters)

Iran war games

Why Attacking on Iran Will Not Work in 2012

All signs coming out of Washington, London, Paris and Tel Aviv are pointing towards a pre-emptive military strike against Iran in 2012. But a number of key indicators are also pointing towards an unsuccessful, unlikely operation, whose failure could result in a military and economic tailspin from which the United States and Israel are unlikely to recover.
Currently, the US is following a trajectory of past unsuccessful empires that were unable to sustain themselves resulting in an eventual collapse from within. The US is currently running up a budget deficit which is not only threatening to bankrupt its entire economy, but also threatening the hegemony of its sole instrument for advantage and influence on the world stage – the US dollar. Any threat to the supremacy of the dollar is also a threat to the empire.

Closing Hormuz

The closure of an international body of water is an act of war. If Iran implemented such a policy in the Strait of Hormuz, it would thus constitute an act of war. This is because in order to do so, this country would have to physically violate the rights of peaceful shippers. One might object that at present, Iran has only threatened to close the Straits of Hormuz. However, in my understanding of libertarian theory based upon the non aggression principle (NAP) not only are people (or governments!) not permitted to actually invade, or violate the rights of peaceful individuals, they are not entitled to threaten this either. However, before we unduly criticize the Iranians for this threat, let us put the matter in context. The U.S. government has also threatened a blockade of Iran. With many statements emanating from Washington D.C. to the effect that the U.S. government “is not taking anything off the table,” they are menacing actions a lot more serious, and invasive, than a mere blockade. Why is the U.S. acting in so bellicose a manner? This is because it seems to be a settled part of present American policy that Iran should not persists in its (supposed) goal of arming itself with nuclear weapons.

New Chinese Antiship Ballistic Missiles May Undercut U.S. Naval Supremacy

The United States' naval might faces a new challenge in the form of Chinese antiship ballistic missiles that could endanger the U.S. fleet of aircraft carriers that have enabled Washington for decades to project maritime force around the world without serious challenge, the Wall Street Journal reported on Wednesday . In the decades following World War II, the United States has enjoyed unrivaled naval supremacy in the western Pacific, due significantly to its aircraft carriers -- a current fleet of 11 97,000-ton ships that come with large crews and an assortment of airplanes, helicopters and weapon systems. However, Beijing's new DF-21D ballistic missile, developed with the ability to hit vessels at ranges of up to 1,700 miles, could mean an end to the U.S. Navy's ability to sail its ships into waters that China considers too close for comfort, military specialists on China say. Having to keep aircraft carriers at a distance would limit the U.S. military's ability to send fighter planes over China in the event of armed hostilities between the two nuclear powers.
Beijing says the DF-21D missiles have yet to be fielded.

Iran Lacks Ability to Build ICBMs, Russia Says

Iran lacks the required technology to develop ICBMs, Russia asserted on Tuesday, amid reports that the Persian Gulf state had conducted trial launches of medium- or long-range missiles, Deutsche Presse-Agentur reported. Tehran's equipment is "not even (sufficient) for prototypes," Interfax quoted Russian Defense Ministry spokesman Vadim Koval as saying. Any potential Iranian long- or medium-range missiles would not be ready for deployment in the near future, the spokesman asserted.

Russia's Bulava Missile Set for Duty

Russian President Dmitry Medvedev last week said his country's navy would place the new Bulava ballistic missile on active duty following the recent end of trial launches involving the submarine-fired weapon, RIA Novosti reported. “We have made a very important step -- we have completed the cycle of flight tests … of the Bulava missile,” Medvedev said on Dec. 27. “Now it will be put into service.” Russia late last month test-fired two Bulava missiles that operated as anticipated, marking the 18th and 19th trials of the weapon.
Moscow has deemed 11 of the Bulava's 19 trial launches to have been successes, but a number of experts said performance aberrations might have been significantly more frequent. Just one of the missile's initial 12 trials unfolded exactly as intended, Russian defense analyst Pavel Felgenhauer said.

US Sabotage of Iran’s Currency

A new twist of the screw on Iran has emerged following the latest US sanctions aimed at the Islamic Republic’s vital oil economy – specifically destabilising the country’s currency and its ability to conduct normal domestic business. Iran’s currency, the riyal, was thrown into turmoil – losing 10-12 per cent of its value against foreign currencies – days after US President Barack Obama signed off new sanctions against the Persian Gulf country’s Central Bank. The slide in value is just the latest drop in a prolonged, precipitous fall. Since last September, when Western governments resumed browbeating diplomacy towards Iran over its legitimate civilian nuclear energy programme, the Iranian riyal has lost 35 per cent – more than a third – of its value.

Iowa Caucus Vote by Age

US gave N. Ireland police weapons, spy equipment, despite Congress ban

Declassified documents show that thousands of American-made weapons, as well as spy equipment, ended up in the hands of Northern Ireland’s police force in the 1980s, despite a strict ban enacted by Congress. The ban was passed in 1979, following strong pressure by organized groups in the Irish-American community. The latter accused Northern Ireland’s police, known as the Royal Ulster Constabulary (RUC), of severe human rights violations and systematically excluding Catholic recruits. But internal government documents released in Northern Ireland this week, reveal that thousands of pieces of American-made weaponry, as well as surveillance equipment, continued to get into the hands of the RUC, despite the official ban. According to the documents, which were released under the UK’s 30-year declassification rule, the RUC eventually managed to collect all 6,000 Ruger revolvers it had ordered from American manufacturers before 1979, when the Congressional ban was enacted.

Botoxic Putin faces either resignation or palace coup

The daughter of former Soviet Communist leader Nikita Khrushchev, Nina, professor of international affairs at The New School in the US and senior fellow at the World Policy Institute in New York, published in the magazine New Europe an article entitled "Russia's botoxic president returns", where she in particular points out: "When a tsar is treated with mockery, rather than regarded with awe, it is time for him to consider retirement, or to prepare for a palace coup. Putin, who intends to stage a glorious return to the Kremlin as President in the election scheduled for March next year, should reflect on that choice. This year began with a vigorous (by Russian standards) Internet petition urging Putin to take the first option.

PFLP-GC calls Amman meeting a "fatal blow" to Palestinian reconciliation

The Popular Front for the Liberation of Palestine - General Command has criticized the meeting held in Amman on Tuesday between officials from the Palestinian Authority and the Israeli government, in the presence of representatives of the Middle East Quartet. The meeting was held at the invitation of the government of Jordan.
The leftist group issued a press release in which it noted that the meeting shows the PA's subordination to American dictates and its opposition to the will of the people.

Iran's Nukes and Israel's Dilemma: Israeli Defense

While the Obama administration has not reconciled itself to the futility of curbing Tehran's nuclear buildup through diplomatic means, most Israelis have given up hope that the international sanctions can dissuade the Islamic Republic from acquiring the means to murder by the millions. Israel's leadership faces a stark choice—either come to terms with a nuclear Iran or launch a preemptive military strike.

The Begin Doctrine

When the Israeli Air Force (IAF) decimated Iraq's Osirak nuclear reactor thirty years ago, drawing nearly universal condemnation, the government of prime minister Menachem Begin declared Israel's "determination to prevent confrontation states … from gaining access to nuclear weapons." Then-defense minister Ariel Sharon explained, "Israel cannot afford the introduction of the nuclear weapon [to the Middle East]. For us, it is not a question of balance of terror but a question of survival. We shall, therefore, have to prevent such a threat at its inception"[1]

What Drives Turkish Foreign Policy? Changes in Turkey

Turkey's ruling Justice and Development Party (Adalet ve Kalkınma Partisi, AKP) was reelected to a third term in June 2011. This remarkable achievement was mainly the result of the opposition's weakness and the rapid economic growth that has made Turkey the world's sixteenth largest economy. But Ankara's growing international profile also played a role in the continued public support for the conservative, Islamist party. Indeed, in a highly unusual fashion, Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdoğan began his victory speech by saluting "friendly and brotherly nations from Baghdad, Damascus, Beirut, Amman, Cairo, Sarajevo, Baku, and Nicosia."[1] "The Middle East, the Caucasus, and the Balkans have won as much as Turkey," he claimed, pledging to take on an even greater role in regional and international affairs. By 2023, the republic's centennial, the AKP has promised that Turkey will be among the world's ten leading powers.
At the same time, Turkey's growing profile has been controversial. As Ankara developed increasingly warm ties with rogue states such as Iran, Syria, and Sudan while curtailing its once cordial relations with Israel and using stronger rhetoric against the United States and Europe, it generated often heated debates on whether it has distanced itself from the West. Turkey continues to function within the European security infrastructure—although more uneasily than before—but has a rupture with the West already taken place, and if so, is it irreversible?

Africa: Five Stories to Watch in 2012

1. Struggles over Democracy in West Africa
Two important elections this year in Africa will be those in Senegal (first round February 26) and Mali (first round April 29). The two contests will be quite different: in Senegal, a two-term octogenarian incumbent will face off against a divided but passionate opposition. Should current President Abdoulaye Wade win, especially if major violence or fraud occurs, pessimism about Senegalese democracy will likely grow internationally, and tensions could linger for some time to come, especially as the country nervously wonders whether Wade will attempt to engineer the succession of his son Karim. In Mali, meanwhile, the open elections could either symbolize the continued consolidation of Malian democracy or bring to light the country’s underdevelopment and showcase the security challenges it faces. What these two elections have in common is their significant for the future of West African democracy in general: both countries have been touted as models of democratic progress in the region, and both will be tested in the coming months.

BANGLADESH: Terror Funding Continues Unabated

Under the Prime Ministership of Sheikh Hasina, Bangladeshhas undoubtedly cracked down on the jehadi brand of terrorism as well as terror outfits that have been needling India for years. But Dhaka may have to do more tomake these efforts more effective. Militant organizations such as Jama’tul Mujahideen Bangladesh (JMB) or Harkat ul Jehad Islam (HUJI) have now been banned but theyhave not been liquidated. Another set of leaders have taken over. Some trainingcamps continue to impart both ideological and arms training. Mere banning ofthe radical groups has not  seared the purpose. A top ranking JMB commander Mustafizur Rahman Shaheen who was recently arrested said during interrogation that JMB has not at all been liquidated with its banning, or with execution ofits topmost leaders Abdur Rahman and his deputy Bangla Bhai. He disclosed thatJMB cadres were operating across the country under various banners with the mission to stage Islamic revolution. 

CHINA: A Bad Taste in India’s Mouth

The alleged ill-treatment of S. Balachandran, an Indian diplomat posted in the Consulate in Shanghai,  and two Indian employees of an Yemeni firm by local Chinese authorities in the city of Yiwu , about  300 kms from Shanghai, has led to a strong protest by the Government of India to the Chinese Embassy in New Delhi on January 2, 2012. 

2. The incident started with the illegal detention and ill-treatment of the two Indian employees of the Yemeni firm by local Chinese traders and authorities who allegedly held them accountable for the failure of the Yemeni firm to pay its dues to local Chinese traders. It has been further alleged that the China-based Yemeni head of the company disappeared making the Indian employees face the wrath of the Chinese traders and authorities.

Why The US Needs a Major War

At the moment, we find ourselves in the middle of a turbulent phase of the global evolutionary cycle which commenced in the 1980ies and is projected to end by the middle of the XXI century. In the process, the US is clearly loosing its hyperpower status… Estimates offered by experts from the Russian Academy of Science show that the current period of severe instabilities should end roughly in 2017-2019 with a crisis. The crisis will not be as deep as those of 2008-2009 or 2011-2012 and will mark the transition to an economy built on a novel technological basis. The economic revival will, in 2016-2020, likely entail serious shifts in the global power balance and serious military-political conflicts involving both the global heavyweights and the developing countries. The epicenters of the conflicts will supposedly be located in the Middle East and the post-Soviet Central Asia.

Iran attack would have repercussions

Any military action against the Islamic Republic of Iran will have dire consequences for the entire world, particularly the United States, political analyst Norman Birnbaum says. Birnbaum, who is a professor emeritus of the Faculty of Law at Georgetown University, made the remarks in an article entitled “Israel and the US against Iran: an Uncertain Alliance,” which was published in the Spanish daily newspaper El Pais on December 18, 2011.

China Hunts X-37 Secrets

For the last five months there has been a large scale effort to obtain information about American jet powered and space based (X-37) UAVs via Internet hacking. The methods, and source of the attack, have been traced back to China. The attacks were done via Internet based attacks against specific civilian, military and government individuals. This sort of thing is often carried out in the form of official looking email, with a file attached, sent to people at a specific military or government organization. It is usually an email they weren't expecting. This is known in the trade as "spear fishing" (or "phishing"), which is a Cyber War technique that sends official looking email to specific individuals, with an attachment which, if opened, secretly installs a program that sends files from the email recipient's PC to the spear fisher's computer. In the last year, an increasing number of military, government, and contractor personnel have received these official-looking emails, with a PDF document attached, and asking for prompt attention.  This comes a year after the discovery of a China based espionage group, called the Shadow Network, which had hacked into PCs used by military and civilian personnel working for the Indian armed forces, and made off with huge quantities of data.
Examination of the viruses and related bits of computer code indicate that most of this stuff was created by Chinese speaking programmers, and all movement of command and stolen data led back to servers in China.   

Thailand: joining the crusade against China

In the south, security forces chip away at the criminal infrastructure that supports the smugglers and Islamic terrorists. The smuggling has long been a major part of the economy, and local culture. The government generally tolerated it as long as the gangsters were discreet. Radical Islam is something that was always just beneath the surface. In the last few decades, Islamic radicalism became fashionable and found material, if not moral, support from the smuggling gangs. That made the Islamic terrorists much more difficult to find and catch. The terrorists are being protected by the same loyalties and secrecy that has long protected the criminal gangs. But even some of the gangsters are getting tired of all the violence, and additional security forces, the Islamic terrorism has brought to the neighborhood.

The Arab League And The Epic Fail

Arab League efforts to calm things down in Syria have failed so far. The team of Arab League observers was criticized because the team leader was a Sudanese general accused involvement with war crimes (killing civilians). Sudan is also an ally of Iran, which backs the Syrian dictatorship. The deal was that Syria would allow observers to witness Syrian security forces not attacking protestors for a month. Syria tried to deceive the observers on this point, but failed. Syria would also release prisoners and open negotiations with protest groups. About ten percent of the nearly 40,000 prisoners were freed, but apparently these were largely innocent people to begin with. There have been no negotiations and Syria continues to insist that the protests and attacks are being staged by foreign agents. Syria insists that the U.S. is behind recent terror bombings. In return, the Arab League would not impose more economic sanctions. But Syria has refused to cooperate and the Arab League is now forced to escalate. The Arab League is under pressure by its members to withdraw the observers right away. The Arab League originally wanted 500 observers, but Syria agreed to 150 and only let 70 in, and tried to keep them away from any violence. This failed and now Syria has lost any remaining credibility it had with the Arab League.

Haniyeh In Sudan; Meetings Reported On Hamas “Joining” The Muslim Brotherhood

In the latest report on Hamas Prime Minister Ismail Haniyeh’s first trip outside the Gaza Strip, Jordanian media is reporting that Haniyeh was In the Sudan where meetings were held to discuss Hamas “joining the Muslim Brotherhood. According to a Maan News Agency report:

Hamas' Ismail Haniyeh Meets with Turkish Prime Minister

Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan greeted Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh as a visiting dignitary during a 2½ hour meeting in Istanbul Sunday. The two exchanged praises and shared condemnations of Israel's naval embargo on Gaza, meant to cut off weapons supplies to the terrorist-led government there. "Erdogan stressed that Hamas was a legitimate liberation movement which was elected by the Palestinian people and the well of the Palestinian people must be respected," according to a report posted on Hamas' Al Qassam website. "Erdogan also stressed that ending the siege on Gaza was one of the three conditions that Turkey put to mend relations with Israel." In May, the Turkish Prime Minister declared his support for Hamas in an interview, declaring it a "resistant movement trying to protect its country under occupation."

Maçonaria: a loja de conveniência da democracia

A Maçonaria já foi uma organização com valores democráticos. A Maçonaria já foi uma organização poderosa. Em diferentes graus, dependendo da loja em questão (há as mais tradicionais e rigorosas, e as dos 300, só mesmo para negócios), aconteceu-lhe o que aconteceu a muitas organizações históricas: foram-se os valores ficou o poder. Sendo secreta, esse poder não está sujeito ao escrutínio público. E isso é perigoso para a democracia. A Maçonaria não é a única e nem sequer a com maior poder. Nos sectores conservadores temos a Opus Dei, onde se juntam fanáticos religiosos com uma comovente entrega espiritual ao vil metal. Nos sectores financeiros, e à escala global, temos organizações como a Bilderberg ou a Trilateral. Todas elas alimentam os espíritos que se apaixonam por teorias da conspiração. Nuns casos é paranóia, noutros nem por isso.

PDVSA to Settle Exxon Claim With $255 Million Cash Payment

Petroleos de Venezuela SA, the state oil company, said it was given 60 days to pay Exxon Mobil Corp. about $255 million in cash to settle an arbitration claim over assets seized by Hugo Chavez in 2007. The cash payment will settle a $907 million ruling by the New York-based International Chamber of Commerce, adding to $191 million of Exxon debt that the Venezuelan company will cancel and $300 million from frozen funds in a New York account, PDVSA said on its website today. The ICC deducted $160 million in counterclaims from the ruling provided the payment is made in 60 days, PDVSA said.

Al Qaeda brokers new anti-US Taliban alliance in Pakistan and Afghanistan

One of al Qaeda's top leaders has reached out to the most powerful Taliban commanders along the Afghan-Pakistani border to create a new alliance to battle the US and NATO forces in Afghanistan. The new alliance, which is called the Shura-e-Murakeba, consists of four major Taliban groups that operate in Pakistan's tribal areas. The four groups that make up the alliance are the Movement of the Taliban in Pakistan, which is led by Hakeemullah Mehsud and his deputy, Waliur Rehman Mehsud; Hafiz Gul Bahadar's group; Mullah Nazir's group; and the Haqqani Network. Each leader has appointed a deputy to represent them on the council.

Afghan Taliban announces new 'political office' in Qatar

The Taliban announced today that it is opening a "political office" in Qatar. According to a translation of the Taliban's message by the SITE Intelligence Group, the office is intended to "spread understanding with the international community." The US has previously signaled its desire for the Taliban to open such an office. The office is seen as a key part of diplomatic talks. Previous efforts at such talks have failed, however, as the US has even engaged phony Taliban intermediaries in its pursuit of an elusive peace. In its statement, the Taliban announced that it has "demanded the release of its captives from Guantanamo through a prisoner exchange." The Taliban did not list the detainees it seeks to free, or how this "prisoner exchange" would work.

Saudi hackers leak credit card information of thousands of Israelis

Hackers have posted the credit card information of thousands of Israelis on the Internet, local media reported on Tuesday. The details of about 15,000 Israeli credit cards were posted on Monday evening on the One sports website by an international group of hackers. The group appeared to have targeted Israeli credit card companies Isracard, Leumi Card and Cal, the Jerusalem Post reported. The three credit card companies said they blocked Internet purchases for the affected cards and were planning to contact cardholders as soon as possible. Isracard and Leumi Card said the victims of identity theft would be compensated. Meanwhile, the Bank of Israel said customers will not bear responsibility for any fraudulent use of their cards. It recommended customers to carefully check their credit card statements and report any problem to the relevant company as soon as possible.