West Africa: Senegal: The beginning of the end for Wade?

Senegalese Justice minister, Sheikh Tidiane Sy, delivered a peculiar message on Friday, 18 March, in which he declared that a coup against the government of President Wade had been thwarted. The alleged coup plotters are not members of the army, as one might expect, they are actually members of the public - civil society figures and political activists who share in common-opposition to the regime. A few days after Sly's message, Communication minister Moustapha Guirassy denied the coup allegations arguing that the available evidence could not sufficiently support government's concerns.  

One could understand that the regime in Dakar is growing very anxious about the ongoing revolution in North Africa. It is becoming increasingly discernible that some Sub Saharan African governments fear that their citizens could be inspired by the events in North African states (the 'Egypt factor') to stage protests against incumbent regimes and this would certainly constitute as a threat to their authority and rule. This has, particularly, put a number of them in a position of anticipation leading some of them to attempt pre-emptive measures to avert possible popular upheaval. Some countries like Cameroon have imposed a discreet ban on the use of social network while promoting new generals and high-ranking military officers to support the government. Others have put a ban on public meetings. In Burkina Faso for instance, classes are temporarily suspended to avoid debate and possible contagion. Wade's reaction could at best be seen as the manifestation of the fear of being toppled given the precarious socio-economic and political context of the country.  

Wade has been in power since 2000 and has had the constitution amended to allow him to run again for the presidency. He recently declared this intention publicly and has also positioned his son favourably to take over the mantle of leadership in the event of his death. He clearly does not intend to relinquish power but seems to also realise that some people in his country may be unhappy with his schemes and that is why he sees himself as the focal point for coup plotters and rebellions. Ironically in attempting to pre-empt threats to his regime, he displays an arrogant intransigence that is likely to consolidate the growing opposition to his regime and to any attempt at a monarchical-like succession.  

The alleged coup plotters were released after, at least, 4000 people assembled to march on Wade's palace and protest at the injustice. Ingredients for protest movement in Senegal are very much in place and just need a trigger. If Wade insists on standing for re-election or attempts to push through his son, he might be faced with popular upheaval as the electoral process is likely to be flawed and this will provide the much needed opportunity for violent contestation. The transition to a democracy is theoretically the replacement of one form of political system (dictatorship) by another (Liberal democracy), one that has been vehemently argued for in many North African states.  But as is the case with all political processes, it is difficult to anticipate a concrete outcome.