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Tim Rifats Geopolitical / Military Analysis

Prime minister refuses to step down in Papua New Guinea despite military mutiny

Prime Minister Peter O’Neill refused to step down despite a mutiny Thursday by soldiers who seized Papua New Guinea’s military headquarters and demanded that he cede power to his ousted predecessor.
Soldiers led by retired Col. Yuara Sasa put the military’s top commander under house arrest in a bloodless, pre-dawn takeover that was part of the power struggle in which both O’Neill and former Prime Minister Michael Somare claim to be the rightful leader of the South Pacific nation.Sasa told reporters in Port Moresby that O’Neill had seven days to comply with a Supreme Court order reinstating Somare “or I will be forced to take actions to uphold the integrity of the Constitution.” O’Neill later declared he was fully in charge and implied Sasa had been arrested. “This government does not answer to one man calling on us to recall Parliament,” O’Neill told reporters, adding that Parliament would resume on Feb. 14 as scheduled. O’Neill appears to have the support of a majority of the country’s lawmakers. He said he remained in control of the nation, including the armed forces, and that Sasa had been “dealt with,” but would not elaborate. Australian Broadcasting Corp. reported that it believed Sasa had been detained.

Defence agreements signed with U.S.

Canada and the U.S. have finalized one agreement and renewed another to better co-ordinate civilian and military forces against threats. Defence Minister Peter MacKay, speaking Tuesday night to a group of defence officials, diplomats and civil servants, said the two countries were expected Wednesday to renew the Civil Assistance Plan and sign off on the Combined Defence Plan. His office confirmed Wednesday they had been signed. The civil assistance agreement lets military personnel and equipment deploy rapidly to humanitarian events, MacKay said in notes prepared for his speech to the Permanent Joint Board on Defence. "In the event of floods, forest fires, hurricanes, earthquakes, or to assist in the aftermath of a terrorist attack — military members from one nation will be ready to support the armed forces of the other, all supporting lead civilian agencies," he said.

EU signs ACTA, global internet censorship treaty

Today, the European Union and 22 member states signed the Anti-Counterfeiting Trade Agreement (ACTA), Japan’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs announced. They have now joined the US and seven other nations that signed the treaty last October. This signing ceremony merely formalized the EU’s adoption of ACTA last month, during a completely unrelated meeting on agriculture and fisheries, reports TechDirt. Though initiated by the US, Japan is the official depository of the treaty. Removal of the Three Strikes clause, in which users accused of three counts of piracy would be barred from the internet, paved the way for the EU to adopt ACTA last month. Related to ACTA, a chapter in the Trans Pacific Partnership Agreement (TPP) “would have state signatories adopt even more restrictive copyright measures than ACTA,” reports the Electronic Frontier Foundation. Both ACTA and TPP were developed without public input and outside international trade groups, like the World Trade Organization and the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development.

Marcha de indígenas bolivianos descansa a las puertas de La Paz

La marcha indígena que reclama la construcción de una carretera en el Territorio Indígena y Parque Nacional Isiboro-Sécure (Tipnis) permanecerá hoy en la localidad de Achica Arriba para reponer fuerzas camino a esta capital.

Los marchistas del Consejo Indígena del Sur (Conisur) arribaron la víspera a esta localidad, a 45 kilómetros de La Paz, donde permanecerán hasta el lunes, con la intención de evitar las lluvias y las bajas temperaturas que azotan a La Paz desde hace tres días.

El objetivo principal de los indígenas es reponer fuerzas y encontrar medicinas, agua, alimentos y ropa, sobre todo, antes de continuar su camino hacia el Palacio de Gobierno, a donde tenían previsto llegar el próximo 30 de enero.

Sin embargo, si salen el día 30 de Achica Arriba es poco probable que puedan superar la distancia que le separa de la sede del Ejecutivo.

Peru, Colombia Strengthen Ties Against Organized Crime

The defense ministers of Peru and Colombia have agreed to strengthen their cooperation in the fight against organized crime along their shared border. The agreement will target drug trafficking, money laundering, smuggling, illegal mining and logging, and the smuggling of native species, according to the EFE news agency. The ministers, Alberto Otarola of Peru and Juan Carlos Pinzon of Colombia, also said education and health programs would target the vulnerable populations of the border region. The AP reports that a more detailed agreement will be reached at a conference in March, which Brazilian delegates will also attend.
In addition, an Andina report highlighted the two countries' interest in joint development of their defense industries, including the possibility of developing a joint Peruvian-Colombian river patrol boat. Otarola and Pinzon also discussed heightening collaboration with other countries on regional security issues. In May 2011 the two signed a border security agreement.

The Perfume Man and Chapo's Stinking Dollars

From the outside gazing in, it appeared as the quintessential American Dream; an example of the immigration system working flawlessly. Vikram Datta emigrated from India in 1983, becoming a naturalized American citizen 11 years later.
It was on a business trip to Laredo in the year 2000 that Datta visited the bustling downtown merchants sector, where money and merchandise exchanged hands at a rate unimaginable in most parts of the US, but which is business as usual for the border corridor. Datta instantly saw that a goldmine awaited him, and, still keeping his NY location, he moved to the border city and within a year had four very profitable stores in Laredo.
Fast-forwarding another decade finds Datta the owner of a lucrative perfume business with multiple locations in NY, Laredo Tx, Arizona and California, raking in millions each month and living a life of financial success.
Datta had settled in the border town of Laredo, Texas. Two of his four perfume outlets in the city are a mere stone’s throw away from the international bridge that connects Texas to the northeast Mexican state of Tamaulipas. The man chose to live in Alexander Estates, a community designed for the wealthy of the South Texas border city, its homes surrounded by a country club, tennis courts, private park and golf course.
Careful attention was paid to designing Alexander Estates, with its high walls and guarded entrances. The designers were mindful of the fear generated by Texas leaders promoting the idea of drug war “spillover violence,” and of Laredo’s proximity to some of the most violent cities in Mexico.

As Mexico's Violence Stabilizes, the Blame Game Will Change Sides

After five years of horror, the violence in Mexico could be beginning to stabilize. Alejandro Hope asks what is behind this turn, and looks ahead to what it will mean for politics in the country.
My five regular readers already know, but maybe the few lost ones who have wound up reading this column do not: the explosion of violence that has affected Mexico in the last few years is almost unprecedented, except for in countries experiencing civil war. The comparison with Colombia in the 1980s gives an idea of the exceptional character of what we have experienced: between 2007 and 2010, the number of homicides in Mexico grew twice as fast as in Colombia during the war against Pablo Escobar.
As there are few precedents, there are few analytical references to understand what has happened to us. Many variables have been used to try to explain the homicidal mania that has suddenly enveloped the country: from the decapitation of criminal organizations to the rising price of cocaine to the deployment of federal forces. There are even some people who, in tedious attempts at pop psychology, have blamed the phenomenon on the intrinstic violent nature of criminals and/or Mexicans (which, for some badly explained reason, never manifested itself before 2007). It is a debate that remains unresolved, and will not be resolved for many years.

Say NO to ACTA

Organized Crime Sets its Sights on Peaceful Uruguay

Uruguay has long been one of the safest countries in Latin America, but some are warning that the influence of organized crime is on the rise, with gang shootouts in the capital and an increase in large-scale cocaine seizures.
“Shootout Between Two Gangs of Narcos.” The January 23 story, which describes a 10-minute long gun battle between rival gangs on a city street, would seem more likely to appear in a newspaper in northern Mexico than in Montevideo-based El Pais.
But violent incidents such as this are becoming more common in the South American country, as drug trafficking groups from elsewhere in the region extend their activities there. On January 2, for instance, soccer agent Washington Oscar Risotto was gunned down southern Montevideo, which police said was likely a revenge killing related to the drug trade. According to the US Department of State’s 2011 International Narcotics Control Strategy Report (INCSR), drug trafficking is on the rise in the country, as evidenced by an increase in large-scale cocaine seizures since 2006.

The Ugly Truth

After President Barack Obama delivered the last State of the Union address for his current term in office, the Republican leadership and aspirants for the presidency immediately charged that his words read more like a “state of the presidential campaign.” This is an interesting claim to be making in light of the theatrical nature of the Republican candidates’ presidential debates that have characterized the party in recent weeks, not to mention challenger Mitt Romney’s issuing his own “pre-buttal” prior to the address, criticizing the President on any number of issues. Even amid the many instances of the two parties’ ideological-soaked clashes, one common feature is starkly clear— they hardly have expressed a comprehensive approach on U.S.-Latin American relations.

Venezuela: Opposition Rallies for “The Unit”

The U.S. presidential campaign season is rapidly taking on the political coloration of what can be expected from the low-grade ideological polemics that form the bulk of the political outcomes in Venezuela.

Simply put, the obvious lack of worth and the unrelieved meretricious nature of the script being used should come as no surprise. Scandals may come to light, candidates may decide to withdraw, and public opinion polls may dramatically shift at any time. Generally, however, the most explosive turnovers in popularity are precipitated not so much by policy maturations or bursts of brilliance or striking illuminations born out of Lincoln-Douglas like debates. What is all but guaranteed is the inevitable evolution of new political alignments that occur as candidates abandon the race and throw in the towel as they support at once despised political foe. This was amply demonstrated several days ago in Venezuela, where the opposition’s contest is in the home stretch prior to the February 12 primary targeted at selecting a unified opposition candidate to run against incumbent President Hugo Chávez in next October’s general elections.

Anti-ACTA protest video: Thousands march in Poland

Al-Zawahiri Failing As Fundraiser: Al-Qaeda Shortfall In Funds

When Dr Ayman al-Zawahiri succeeded slain al-Qaeda leader Osama bin Laden in June 2011, it was clear that he faced a daunting task in rebuilding an organisation suffering from a severe depletion of its ranks as a result of the blows it received, particularly in the Afghanistan-Pakistan border areas.

It was also clear that al-Zawahiri needed to find a solution to the challenge posed by the Arab Spring revolutions. The strength of the demonstrations illustrated that the majority in the Arab street did not support al-Qaeda’s policy of advocating change through violence, nor were they convinced of its justifications for attacking the West, as the West stood by the Arab peoples in their quest for greater political freedom.

And now it appears that al-Zawahiri needs to find a solution to another problem, one that most likely started years ago but has been exacerbated by the killing of Bin Laden in Abbottabad, Pakistan in May 2011; specifically, a shortfall in donor funds.

Coping With Climate Change

In the past five years, “resilience” (the ability to absorb shocks and recover) has become quite a buzzword in the aid community. Discussions on adapting to a changing climate are increasingly peppered with the “need to build resilience” of people, infrastructure and governments in the face of shocks such as soaring temperatures, rising sea levels, severe storms and flooding.

In a review of its humanitarian operations (HERR), the UK government was among the first donors to place resilience at the centre of its “approach both to longer-term development and to emergency response” and announced its intention to scale-up work on resilience.

Aid experts and NGOs provide various reasons for the growing popularity and emergence of resilience as a concept. Some are sceptical. But they all agree it is a positive approach that will bring the worlds of development and humanitarian aid closer.

Nuclear Terrorism: A Rationale Choice For Terrorists?

Nuclear terrorism is defined as the use of a nuclear device by a terrorist organization to cause massive devastation or the use (or threat of use) of fissionable radioactive materials; “assaults on nuclear power plants is one form of nuclear terrorism.” The term nuclear terrorism is understood to be a terrorist act using a nuclear or radiological weapon intended to kill or capable of killing hundreds or thousands of people with one attack. Nuclear terrorism at times has also been defined as the world’s most dangerous terrorists acquiring the world’s most dangerous weapons.

The term “nuclear terrorism” encompasses a broad range of possible criminal acts. It includes actions against nuclear facilities, military or civilian, including vehicles transporting nuclear weapons, components, or materials; and those in which nuclear weapons, explosive devices, or materials are used to threaten or actually destroy people and property. The first type of action might serve as a precursor to the second; terrorists might assault or infiltrate a facility to steal a weapon or material for use in a future nuclear threat.

Can Iran Survive With Europe Boycotting its Oil?

The European Union threatened Iran on Monday with cutting off petroleum imports into the 27 EU member states, and announced sanctions on Iranian banks and some port and other companies. Iran sells 18 percent of its petroleum to Europe, and Greece, Italy and Spain are particularly dependent on it. Europe also sells Iran nearly $12 billion a year in goods, which likely will cease, since there will be no way for Iran to pay for these goods. Some in Europe worry that the muscular anti-Iran policy of the UK, France and Germany in northern Europe will worsen the economic crisis of southern Mediterranean countries such as Greece. Others think that Iran’s nuclear enrichment program is still primitive and that allegations that Iran is seeking a nuclear warhead are hype.

About 60% of Iran’s petroleum now goes to Asian countries, especially China, India, South Korea and Japan. China and India have no announced plans to reduce purchases of Iranian crude, and South Korea says it will seek an exemption from the US so as to continue to import. Japan says it plans only very slowly to reduce imports from Iran. Iran and India have just reached an agreement whereby some trade with Iran will be in rupees, to sidestep US sanctions. Indian firms are considering whether to fill the $8 billion gap in exports to Iran left by the Western sanctions (many do not want to be cut off from also exporting to the US, as they would be if third party sanctions were applied to them).

Supermarkets rush to raise fuel prices as pumps run dry amid fears of panic buying

Fuel prices have risen again just 24 hours after one of Britain’s biggest refineries went bust, stopping supplies to filling stations. There are fears of panic buying after long queues formed outside several filling stations in the South East yesterday as diesel pumps ran dry.

Supermarkets – which usually set the trend – have put up to 1p a litre on the price of diesel and unleaded.

On average across the UK, diesel rose to 142.32p (from 142.21p) per litre and is now within a fraction of a new record. Petrol rose to 134.03p per litre (from 133.89p), the AA reported.

Tesco said it had increased its prices by 1p per litre on Monday – the second such rise in a fortnight. It said the rises were down to the increasing wholesale cost of fuel and came before the shutdown at the Coryton refinery.

But data used by petrol retailers showed Sainsbury, Esso and BP have all raised their prices by varying amounts this week.

And more hikes are in the pipeline, with petrol retailers and motoring groups warning: ‘The only way is up.’ The closure of the Coryton refinery in Essex was announced on Tuesday as Swiss parent company Petroplus went into receivership.

Even Israel Admits that Iran Has Not Decided to Build a Nuclear Bomb

American and European leaders say that there is no evidence that Iran is building a nuclear weapon. Even Israel – which has threatened to attack Iran on its own – now admits the same thing.

As Haaretz noted on January 18th:

The intelligence assessment Israeli officials will present later this week to [Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Martin ] Dempsey indicates that Iran has not yet decided whether to make a nuclear bomb.

The Israeli view is that while Iran continues to improve its nuclear capabilities, it has not yet decided whether to translate these capabilities into a nuclear weapon – or, more specifically, a nuclear warhead mounted atop a missile. Nor is it clear when Iran might make such a decision.

Obama Signs Global Internet Treaty Worse Than SOPA

Months before the debate about Internet censorship raged as SOPA and PIPA dominated the concerns of web users, President Obama signed an international treaty that would allow companies in China or any other country in the world to demand ISPs remove web content in the US with no legal oversight whatsoever.

The Anti-Counterfeiting Trade Agreement was signed by Obama on October 1 2011, yet is currently the subject of a White House petition demanding Senators be forced to ratify the treaty. The White House has circumvented the necessity to have the treaty confirmed by lawmakers by presenting it an as “executive agreement,” although legal scholars have highlighted the dubious nature of this characterization.

The hacktivist group Anonymous attacked and took offline the Federal Trade Commission’s website yesterday in protest against the treaty, which was also the subject of demonstrations across major cities in Poland, a country set to sign the agreement today.

ACTA Anger: Poland signs up to 'censorship' without debate

Keiser Report: Kill Hollywood!

How the Private Bankers Are Using the Financial Crisis to Reshape World Government

Sheik Imran Hosein - Israel Takes the US to its End

The Man Without A Plan

Barack Obama is a man without a plan.  When you are young, they often tell you to "fake it until you make it", but Barack Obama is taking this to ridiculous extremes.  Barack Obama has absolutely no idea what he is doing when it comes to the economy, and yet he continues to give speeches in which he declares that he is the man for the job.  The State of the Union speech the other night was just abysmal.  The federal government is spending way too much money, and yet Barack Obama is proposing even more government spending.  Entrepreneurs and small businesses are being taxed into oblivion and yet Barack Obama is proposing even higher taxes.  Our economy is being strangled to death by crippling regulations, and yet Barack Obama is proposing a vast array of new regulations.  Barack Obama always gives a nice speech, but it has become appallingly evident that he is totally out of ideas.  So our country will continue to drift aimlessly along without a direction and without a plan until the next financial tsunami comes along and makes things even worse.

Angela Merkel casts doubt on saving Greece from financial meltdown

Angela Merkel has cast doubt for the first time on Europe's chances of saving Greece from financial meltdown and sovereign default, conceding that Europe's first ever multibillion euro bailout coupled with savage austerity was not working after a two-year crisis that has brought the single currency to the brink of unravelling.
In an interview with the Guardian and five other leading European newspapers, the German chancellor also insisted – against widespread resistance elsewhere in the eurozone and in the UK – that the European court of justice (ECJ) be empowered to police public spending and budget policies of the 17 countries in the euro.
She also called for the eventual creation of a European political union, with many more national powers ceded to a central government, a strengthened bicameral European parliament, and the ECJ assuming the role of Europe's supreme court.
Days before the latest EU summit, which, at Merkel's insistence and evoking scant enthusiasm elsewhere, is to finalise an international treaty between eurozone governments entrenching German-style fiscal and budgetary rigour in all single currency countries, the chancellor admitted having doubts about the strategy she had pursued during the crisis.

Israel’s By-Pass Foreign Policy

The right-wing government of Israel has embarked on a novel foreign policy, one that seeks to develop close relations with sub-national state and provincial governments, thus by-passing national governments and avoiding the increasing hostility of national foreign ministries and local grass roots movements to Israel’s policies toward the Palestinians.

The establishment of state-to-state relations between Israel and such sub-national governments as American states, Canadian provinces, and even Native American tribal nations has increased under the ultra-nationalist Israeli Foreign Minister Avigdor Lieberman. The new aggressive policy by Israel to seek allies at sub-national levels results in internal pressure on national governments to take a less critical approach to Israeli policies on the West Bank and Gaza.

Israel has developed a number of “formal partnership agreements” with American states. These agreements cover a number of areas, including economic and business relations, cultural ties, exchange trips by American state and Israeli government officials, technology exchange and research, and education. With some local jurisdictions and university and college campuses advancing Boycott, Divestment, and Sanctions (BDS) initiatives against Israel, the Israeli government is confident that any attempts to take such proposals to the state level will be stopped dead in their tracks.

Clashes between Tibetans, gov't spread in China

Deadly clashes between ethnic Tibetans and Chinese security forces have spread to a second area in southwestern China, the government and an overseas activist group said Wednesday. The group Free Tibet said two Tibetans were killed and several more were wounded Tuesday when security forces opened fire on a crowd of protesters in Seda county in politically sensitive Ganzi prefecture in Sichuan province. It quoted local sources as saying the area was under a curfew. According to the Chinese government, a "mob" of people charged a police station in Seda and injured 14 officers, forcing police to open fire on them. The official Xinhua News Agency said police killed one rioter, injured another and arrested 13. The spread of violence came after some 30 Tibetans sheltered in a monastery after being wounded when Chinese police fired into a crowd of protesters in neighboring Luhuo county, a Tibetan monk said Tuesday. He said military forces had surrounded the building. The monk would not give his name out of fear of government retaliation, and the Draggo monastery could no longer be reached by phone Wednesday.

Operation CNN Debate Blackout #OpDebateBlackout

Bolivia Makes Coca Monitoring Deal With US

After months of negotiation, Bolivia has agreed to work with Brazil and the US to track coca cultivation, in an apparent policy shift for the government of Evo Morales. According to a State Department press release, the agreement creates an “integrated monitoring system” with the US providing equipment and training, and Brazil contributing satellite imagery and analysis. Both the US and Brazil will provide training to Bolivian authorities.
Bolivia is the world’s third-largest producer of coca leaves, the raw material for cocaine, and shares a long border with Brazil. The State Department, in its annual narcotics report, said Brazilian authorities have reported an increase in trafficking of processed cocaine from Bolivia.
This agreement can be viewed as backtracking by Bolivian leader Morales, who has previously resisted US pressure to step up coca eradication efforts. This agreement shows Morales is more willing to engage in counter-narcotics activities with neighboring countries in South America than he is with the United States. Brazil’s involvement is key, given Bolivia’s tense relationship with the US.

Mexican Drug Gangs Attracted by Lucrative Meth Trade

A massive surge in the number of synthetic drug labs discovered in Mexico indicates a nationwide shift of traffickers away from traditional drugs like cocaine and towards the more profitable methamphetamine.
As Excelsior reported, some 645 of these labs have been discovered by Mexican authorities during the five years of the Felipe Calderon administration, compared to just 60 during Vicente Fox’s six years as president. Mexico’s Defense Department (Sedena), said that the rapid growth of narco-labs had been fueled by the decline in the number of fields used for the cultivation of marijuana or heroin-producing poppy, which they attributed to the government’s eradication efforts.
However, given the variable success of past eradication efforts, it is likely that a more important factor was the greater revenue to be made from producing synthetic drugs: a Sedena spokesman said that profit margins of synthetic drug manufacturers can be up to 20 times those of marijuana producers. Authorities said that the appeal of synthetic drugs is also due to the fact that setting up a lab is far quicker and easier than planting a field of coca or marijuana, and easier to conceal, because the production takes place beneath a roof and behind closed doors.

Brazil Comes to the Fore in Regional Security

Brazil, which borders on the world's three biggest cocaine producers, is increasingly moving to make itself a key force in regional anti-drug efforts, funneling security aid to its neighbors in a drive to cut growing drug use at home.
Colombian Defense Minister Juan Carlos Pinzon visited Brazil last week to meet his Brazilian counterpart Celso Amorim and discuss the progression of the Binational Border Security Plan (PBSF) signed between the two in June last year. The countries agreed to formulate an effective strategy to counter drug-trafficking, money laundering, human trafficking and terrorism.
The agreement is but one of many bilateral border security agreements made, and largely dictated, by Brazil over the last 12 months with its drug-producing neighbors.
Bolivia signed a similar agreement with the regional giant in 2011, and has received four helicopters and Unmanned Aerial Vehicles (UAVs or drones) to fight coca cultivation. Paraguay, whose border with Brazil sees the transit of up to 40 tons of cocaine per year and 15 per cent of the world's marijuana, also followed suit, while a similar security initiative is pending with Peru.

ACTA of War: Cyber attacks & street protests over anti-piracy law

Are El Salvador’s Gangs Plotting to 'Take Down the System'?

El Salvador’s police have claimed that the country’s “maras,” or street gangs, are planning an all-out attack on security forces, despite the fact that these groups have neither the organizational structure nor motive to do so.
The deputy director of investigation for the Salvadoran National Civil Police (PNC), Howard Cotto, claims that authorities believe imprisoned gang leaders are contacting gang members on the outside and directing them to attack security forces. In remarks to El Salvador’s Contrapunto, Cotto said that those behind this scheme refer to it as an attack on “the system.”
Deputy director of prisons, Nelson Rauda, backed the claim, saying that authorities had intercepted letters from mara leaders which contained a call to attack “members of the Salvadoran Armed Forces, the PNC, prison staff members, as well as judges and prosecutors.”

Ecuador y Chile revisan acuerdos en materia de defensa

El ministro de Defensa de Chile, Andrés Allamand, y su homólogo ecuatoriano, Javier Ponce, pasarán revista hoy a los acuerdos de cooperación existentes en este sector entre ambos países. En particular serán revisadas las alianzas estratégicas entre las empresas Santa Bárbara Sociedad Anónima, de Ecuador, y la Fábrica de Maestranzas del Ejército de Chile, confirma un comunicado del Ministerio de Defensa en Quito. Los titulares suscribirán un adéndum (o añadido) al Memorando de Entendimiento para la Compañía Conjunta de Ingenieros en la Misión de las Naciones Unidas en Haití (Minustah). Este nuevo acuerdo introduce mejoras para la participación militar de ambos contingentes, señala el texto.
Además, las partes evaluarán la presencia de sus respectivas brigadas frente a la situación del país caribeño, de acuerdo con un comunicado oficial difundido en esta capital. Allamand presentará un proyecto chileno para el desarrollo de mapas de riesgo, con el propósito de impulsar el tema de prevención de desastres naturales en la región. Las partes intercambiarán en torno a los avances del Consejo de Defensa Suramericano en el 2011, particularmente en materia de Medidas de Confianza y Transparencia, así como en las perspectivas de este organismo regional. Los titulares visitarán las Escuelas Superiores Militares Eloy Alfaro, la de Aviación Cosme Renella y la Naval Comandante Rafael Morán Valverde. El Ministerio de Defensa de Ecuador confirmó que el ministro chileno de Defensa presentará un saludo ante el presidente Rafael Correa.

Crece pedido de reforma al sistema electoral en Chile

La propuesta de la opositora Concertación chilena de cambiar el sistema electoral binominal por uno "proporcional moderado" agitó el turbulento escenario político por el que atraviesa el gobierno de Sebastián Piñera.

"No creo que los presidentes de la Concertación sean las personas más habilitadas para venir ahora a pedir urgencias o exigencias cuando en 20 años no se hizo nada en la materia", replicó el vocero del gobierno, Andrés Chadwick.

Y como epílogo del portazo a la iniciativa añadió: "el Gobierno tiene muy claro lo que debe hacer". "En cuanto a reformas políticas, primero vamos a llegar a acuerdos al interior de la Coalición para ver qué es aquello que puede remplazar, manteniendo las ventajas y las fortalezas del sistema electoral actual".

La reacción de La Moneda no sorprendió. Apenas en la noche del martes, en un Comité Político Ampliado, habían logrado poner un poco de orden al interior de la coalición oficialista que integran los partidos Renovación Nacional (RN) y Unión Demócrata Independiente (UDI), envueltos los dos en una disputa que acaparó titulares.

Ministros de Defensa de Brasil y Venezuela avanzan hacia un futuro acuerdo de cooperación

El ministro del Poder Popular para la Defensa y jefe del Comando Estratégico Operacional de Venezuela, general en jefe (Ejército) Henry Rangel Silva, recibió en Caracas al ministro de Defensa de Brasil, Celso Amorim. Tras reunirse con su homólogo brasileño, el general Rangel Silva destacó la importancia de la cooperación bilateral y multilateral, en el ámbito regional, en materia de Defensa.
"La dinámica de la reunión nos dice que esta relación de cooperación bilateral y multilateral va por un extraordinario camino. Vamos a lograr que nuestras Fuerzas Armadas se complementen para ofrecer protección a lo interno del bloque suramericano y que éste se convierta en un elemento disuasivo contra lo que quiera venir desde afuera", expresó Rangel Silva.
Puntualizó, asimismo, que estarán trabajando en una serie de acuerdos bilaterales, como reforzando la integración regional. Por su parte, Amorim indicó que abordaron temas en materias de seguridad, industria y tecnología militar, intercambios educativos y lucha contra el tráfico de drogas.

El programa espacial brasileño se reactiva en 2012

El físico Marco Antonio Raupp asumió esta semana el Ministerio de Ciencia, Tecnología e Innovación, sustituyendo a Aloizio Mercadante que pasó a encabezar el Ministerio de Educación. La escuela de Raupp, que antes comandaba la AEB (Agencia Espacial Brasileña) significó la cristalización de un proceso de reestructuración de responsabilidades. La presidenta reorganizó la AEB, el Instituto Nacional de Investigación Espacial (INPE, por sus siglas en portugués), el Ministerio de Defensa (uno de los mayores clientes del los programas de AEB e INPE) y redefinió las relaciones institucionales entre estos órganos.
A partir de entonces, la evolución de los acontecimientos se aceleró. La visita de una gran comitiva incluyendo al entonces ministro de Defensa Nelson Jobim, el comandante de Aeronáutica Brigadier Juiniti Saito y el propio Raupp, entre otras autoridades, al Centro de Lanzamiento de Alcántara (CLA), el 28 de julio de 2011 significó que la AEB estaba saliendo del marasmo burocrático en que se encontraba.

US sanctions to starve Iranian people to death

Dilma Roussef autoriza evaluar la creación de la segunda escuadra naval brasileña

Atendiendo a la reiterada petición de las autoridades navales de Brasil, en su reunión periódica sobre asuntos de Defensa con el ministro del sector, Celso Amorím, la primer mandataria brasileña  ha autorizado la creación de una comisión que evalúe a la brevedad la instalación de la segunda escuadra naval brasileña, en la región norte, lo más cerca posible del área amazónica, cuya entrada y salida de buques, junto a las potenciales riquezas en hidrocarburos en lo que hace al Atlántico subecuatorial, exigirá una fuerte custodia en un futuro próximo.

Las posibilidades geográficas se consideran entre el estado de Maranhão, también sede de la principal plataforma de lanzamientos aeroespaciales sudamericana,  y la capital de Pará, Belém, que ya posee importantes bases aéreas y navales (Val de Cães), con apreciable capacidad industrial, inclusive para terceros.

La decisión ha caído internamente con una mezcla de simpatía y esceptiscismo, ya que la escuadra actual ha tenido ultimamente tantas dificultades, desde retrasos en programas por falta de rubros, hasta canibalización de fragatas para cumplir con los compromisos en Líbano (UNIFIL) adonde se envió la "União", que el cumplimiento de objetivos tecnológicos y operacionales se ha hecho algo más esquivo recientemente.

FARC must stop playing games, release hostages now: Govt

The Colombian government reacted angrily Wednesday to a FARC video naming the six hostages it planned to release, reported newspaper El Espectador. Responding to a video in which FARC commander Ivan Marquez revealed which security force members would be set free, Defense Minister Juan Carlos Pinzon said a "publicity show" was unnecessary.
"This organization, which uses terrorist methods and illegal activities such as drug trafficking, does not have the right to carry on playing with the lives of people like these hostages who have spent more than 13 years in captivity, and the lives of their families," said the minister.
The government was sick of all the games, Pinzon said, challenging the rebels to stop talking and take action. "If you want to free them, free them right now, today, tomorrow; tell us where they are and we will come for them. Because if one has the will to release a person tortured by the scourge of kidnapping, one can do it immediately." The FARC refused to acknowledge the reality of what it had done, claimed the minister, by using humanitarian expressions to describe the practice of kidnapping, when in fact it had simply used its hostages as "political capital." Ivan Marquez said in Wednesday's video that the imminent release of six security force members, which has been planned for some time, followed a request from ex-senator Pieded Cordoba and other peace activists. Another five members of the security forces are being held by the FARC, alongside an unknown number of civilians.

América Latina: Cómo exterminar la corrupción policial

·     En un mundo utópico, América Latina dispondría de recursos económicos infinitos con los que diagnosticar y remediar la corrupción policial que afecta a tantos países de la región. Sin embargo, a raíz de restricciones presupuestarias, el tratamiento de este mal debe circunscribirse a los recursos económicos disponibles.

·         Tres son las medidas básicas que deberán adoptar los países latinoamericanos contra la corrupción: apartar de su cargo a los funcionarios culpables de la cúpula policial, montar un mecanismo que controle el desempeño de los funcionarios inocentes y de los agentes incorporados en reemplazo de los culpables, y aumentar la remuneración de la totalidad del personal policial. De analizarse algunos ejemplos de intentos fallidos y parcialmente exitosos por exterminar la corrupción en México y Perú, es posible comenzar a justificar la necesidad de emprender estas tres acciones fundamentales.

·       Un problema no contemplado por las reformas policiales es la intimidación que sufren los agentes policiales y sus familias por parte de las organizaciones de narcotráfico. Si bien es preciso defender a los agentes ante estas amenazas, la seguridad de cada agente depende de la seguridad del país en su conjunto.

Sovereigns Declare War On US Dollar

Within the body of the report were gleaned these crucial items:

1.    India has become the first buyer of Iranian oil to agree to settle purchases in gold.

2.    China is expected to follow India's move.

3.    Approximately 40% of Iran's total oil exports are consumed by India and China.

4.    Settling oil transactions in gold enables Tehran to circumvent the EU's upcoming freeze on Iran's Central Bank assets and the oil embargo announced Monday January 23rd.

5.    Due to the magnitude of the transactions proposed, the price of gold is expected to rise and the Dollar's value depressed on world markets.

6.    The EU currently accounts for approximately 20% of Iran's oil exports.

7.    The transactions are to be facilitated via two Indian state owned banks and a Turkish state owned bank.

8.    Financial mechanisms have also been implemented between Iran and Russia for the settlement of oil purchases in currencies other than the US Dollar.

Iran to U.S.: bring it on

High-ranking Iranian military officials are rattling sabers again, this time by issuing a warning that Iranian submarines “can ambush and destroy enemy vessels especially U.S. aircraft carriers” should they return to the Persian Gulf – even as the first has returned, according to a report in Joseph Farah’s G2 Bulletin. Rear Adm. Farhad Amiri, of the Iranian army’s self-sufficiency jihad, claimed that the United States is especially focused on Iran’s “astonishing subsurface capabilities.” Iran is known to have a number of diesel-run submarines, some purchased from Russia years ago, but the nation also has developed an indigenous submarine production.

Tehran Pushes to Ditch the US Dollar

Rumors are swirling that India and Iran are at the negotiating table right now, hammering out a deal to trade oil for gold. Why does that matter? Because it strikes at the heart of both the value of the US dollar and today's high-tension standoff with Iran. The official line from the United States and the European Union is that Tehran must be punished for continuing its efforts to develop a nuclear weapon. The punishment: sanctions on Iran's oil exports, which are meant to isolate Iran and depress the value of its currency to such a point that the country crumbles. But that line doesn't make sense, and the sanctions will not achieve their goals. Iran is far from isolated and its friends – like India – will stand by the oil-producing nation until the US either backs down or acknowledges the real matter at hand. That matter is the American dollar and its role as the global reserve currency.

Untying The Knots Of Human Trafficking

The epitome of the most sinister of all trades, a lucrative business, and a thriving industry in the 21st century is not of mineral ores, or glittering gemstones, of arms, or opium; it is the human itself, trafficked for profit in the world within our world of Human Trafficking. This month of January 2012 has been declared by U.S. President Barack Obama as ‘National Slavery and Human Trafficking Prevention Month’.

According to a report by U.S State department (2007), around 600,000 to 800,000 people are trafficked across borders around the world. Similarly, according to another report by UNICEF (2003), around 1.2 million children are trafficked each year.

An Alternative To War With Iran

Relations between Iran and the West, fraught with tension and conflict for decades, have in the past few months reached a fever pitch. There is talk of war on a daily basis from both sides. Hundreds of millions, if not billions, have been spent both to fuel the Iranian missile and nuclear program and the counter-measures taken by the West to frustrate it. Leaders on both sides have worked themselves into paroxysms of rage regarding the alleged homicidal intensions of the other side. The situation is volatile and the danger of war real. But the premise of the Western approach to Iran has dangerous shortcomings.

There is a common conception of Western policy as based on a two-pronged, carrot and stick approach: one a diplomatic track and the other a military threat. There is certainly the guise of a real diplomatic track. Both sides have talked at various times of the need for negotiations, and for very short periods there have been talks. Recently, Iran expressed willingness to begin a new round of talks with its opponents about its nuclear program.

Ron Paul: Response To President Obama’s State Of Union Speech

President Obama once again showed that he does not represent the fundamental change this country needs. Instead of offering solutions to the problems our country faces, the President was intent on delivering a campaign speech, further dealing in the typical Washington political gamesmanship that has gotten us exactly nowhere close to improving the lives of the American people.

In a speech where much of the rhetoric was devoted to job creation, it was strange that President Obama would brag about his job-destroying national health care plan, Obamacare, and the Dodd-Frank bill, which, contrary to the President’s claims, guarantees future taxpayer bailouts of large institutions. Unfortunately, President Obama’s ‘job creation’ policies amount to little more than continuing to allow government bureaucrats to pick winners and losers, which is a recipe for continued economic stagnation.

Nigeria: A Smouldering Rage

The nation-wide strike in Nigeria against a petrol price hike ended under rather curious circumstances. The strike called by labour unions had crippled the economy safe for the fact that the oil pipelines continued to deliver their load. Labour leaders and civil society coalitions entered into dialogue with a government that favours monologues. It was not surprising that the game was over before the labour leaders knew it.

Nigerians woke up at the dawn of the New Year to learn that the price of a litre of petrol had been jerked up by about 120 per cent. Petrol now costs 141 Naira and 200 Naira (about $1) per litre in an economy where the minimum wage is 18,000 Naira (about $110). We note that even before organised labour called out workers on strike, citizens had already hit the streets in protest against what they see as an insensitive and unacceptable action by the government.

Targeted Assassinations: Implications For National Security

The latest targeted assassination of an Iranian nuclear scientist sets a dangerous precedent. Although the use of this tactic is intended to reduce national security threats, the various reprisals and actions that states could adopt could actually increase threats to national security. MOSTAFA AHMADI Roshan is the latest Iranian scientist associated with the country’s nuclear programme to be assassinated in the past two years. Roshan, a deputy director of the Natanz nuclear enrichment facility, died when a car bomb strapped to his vehicle exploded on 11 January 2012. Last year, Dariush Rezaei-Nejad, a senior scientist with links to the defence ministry, was shot dead by gunmen outside a kindergarten in Tehran. In 2010, Massoud Ali Mohammadi, a nuclear physics professor at Tehran University was killed when a motorcycle exploded outside his home. Majid Shahriari, who had ties with Iran’s Atomic Energy Agency, was also killed the same year when a bomb attached to his car exploded. Iran has blamed Israel and the United States for the recent killing, and has vowed revenge that could involve cross-border bombing attacks. While the US has vehemently denied responsibility and condemned the attack, Israel has remained ambiguously silent.

Turkey-Japan Relations: Need To Think Beyond Trade

Literature on Turkey-Japan relations seems to be focused largely on historical and economic areas. A quick look at the official documents released by the finance and foreign ministries of the two countries would lend support to this observation. For example, the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Turkey (MFA) allocates rather limited space for Japan on its web site, and the information provided under the title “Turkey-Japan Political Relations “hardly helps in terms of delivering a comprehensive analysis of the relationship. If this is taken as a yardstick to gauge the official interest in relations vis-à-vis Japan, it is concluded that the prospective benefits of political and security cooperation is not appreciated enough.

Kosovo: An Opportunity For Agreement On The North?

The recent “four-point proposal” by Serbia’s president, Boris Tadic, may provide the foundation for a lasting solution; one that could be accommodated within the framework of the Ahtisaari Plan.

Perhaps the events of last year – Pristina’s failed attempt in July to seize the northern boundary and the mangled efforts by EULEX and KFOR to support that effort – have finally convinced at least a few of the Quint that force won’t work?  Recent statements by the UK and France (Italy already would go along with anything) indicate readiness to accept less than Serbia simply surrendering the north to Pristina.  The two EU members have greeted positively president Tadic’s recent “four-point proposal,” suggesting it could be accommodated within the framework of the Ahtisaari Plan.

Sarkozy envisagerait de quitter la politique en cas de défaite

Je lis avec amusement, ça et là, sur le wire et sur le net, je cite, que « Sarkozy envisagerait de quitter la politique en cas de défaite ». Permettez-moi de douter de cette fausse révélation. « Révélation » que certains médias français nous présentent comme une fuite, un scoop, un tuyau. Certes, Sarkozy n’est pas intelligent. Il en donne, chaque jour qui passe, une preuve supplémentaire. Mais Sarkozy est narcissique et rusé. Par conséquent, je ne peux exclure qu’il soit à l’origine de cette fuite organisée. Fuite selon laquelle il « envisagerait de quitter la politique en cas de défaite ». Ce chantage, infantile et ridicule, est selon moi assez typique de Sarkozy. Je dirais même, typiquement sarkozyque.

Ex-British Official Confirms Longtime Russian Assertions That British Agents Employed Fake Rock in Their Moscow Operations

The documentary Putin, Russia and the West, which aired on the BBC the 19th of this month, incorporates the admission by former Prime Minister Tony Blair’s chief of staff, Jonathan Powell, that the seemingly farfetched Russian allegations dating to 2006 of British use of a fake rock in a Moscow park for espionage, were indeed true. Russian state television coverage six years ago purported to exhibit four British operatives planting or recovering the already referred to fake rock, and uncovered the advanced communications devices contained therein. According to official Russian accounts, British agents and their Russian contacts relied on pocket-sized computers to download information to and from an apparatus concealed in the plastic boulder as they went by it, a method effective at 65 feet away at most and requiring solely one to two seconds. Tony Blair, prime minister at the time the Russian charges regarding the fake rock were first made, refused to respond, with the British government referring to the established practice against discourse on intelligence matters. Mr. Blair’s then Russian counterpart, President Vladimir Putin, did not follow the customary procedure under the circumstances, and so he refrained from ordering the expulsion of British diplomats taking part in espionage activities because, he explained, their replacements might be more adept.
Mr. Powell’s disclosure marked the first official British confirmation of the fake rock affair, and he in turn accused the Russians of being aware of what was going on for awhile but calculating when to reveal the plot so as to countenance a clampdown on government opponents. The British Foreign Office, which administers the MI6 intelligence service, would not address the Powell statements. Britain’s ambassador posted to Russia in 2006 was Tony Brenton, and he likewise contended that the timing of exposure of the fake rock conspiracy was determined by political expediency. He described the subsequent striking deterioration in relations between London and Moscow, pointing out intimidation of diplomats, suits brought against British energy companies, and the poisoning death of dissident one time Russian security official Alexander Litvinenko in England.

Azerbaijan foils Iranian-Hizballah terror strike against Jewish targets

A Hizballah cell backed by intelligence from Tehran and external Iranian terror cells in Turkey, Bulgaria, Georgia and Armenia, was captured in Baku on Jan. 19 by Azerbaijan’s National Security Ministry (MNS) officers as it was about to launch a series of attacks on the Israeli embassy, Chief Rabbi Shneor Segal and Rabbi Mati Lewis at the Habad center and visiting Israel personages.

DEBKAfile’s counter-terror sources disclose that two of the Hizballah cell members live permanently in Baku. The third, who resides in Tehran, was recruited by Iranian intelligence to lead the Hizballah operation, which was the first joint Iranian-Hizballah terrorist attack ever discovered.

In its sights too were the former Israeli chief of staff Gaby Ashkenazi who was due to visit to the Azerbaijan capital and several local high officials who work with the United States and Israel. They were suspected by Tehran of helping the US and Israel set up an attack on Iran from Azerbaijan.

The two Habad figures are Israeli-born heads of the Jewish community in Baku and the Ohr Avner Chabad Jewish Day School.

America and the Arab Spring

A year ago this week, on January 25, 2011, the ground began to crumble under then-Egyptian president Hosni Mubarak’s feet. One year later, Mubarak and his sons are in prison, and standing trial.

This week, the final vote tally from Egypt’s parliamentary elections was published. The Islamist parties have won 72 percent of the seats in the lower house.

The photogenic, Western-looking youth from Tahrir Square the Western media were thrilled to dub the Facebook revolutionaries were disgraced at the polls and exposed as an insignificant social and political force.

As for the military junta, it has made its peace with the Muslim Brotherhood. The generals and the jihadists are negotiating a power-sharing agreement. According to details of the agreement that have made their way to the media, the generals will remain the West’s go-to guys for foreign affairs. The Muslim Brotherhood (and its fellow jihadists in the Salafist al-Nour party) will control Egypt’s internal affairs.