Arab League efforts to calm
things down in Syria have failed so far. The team of Arab League
observers was criticized because the team leader was a Sudanese general
accused involvement with war crimes (killing civilians). Sudan is also
an ally of Iran, which backs the Syrian dictatorship. The deal was that
Syria would allow observers to witness Syrian security forces not
attacking protestors for a month. Syria tried to deceive the observers
on this point, but failed. Syria would also release prisoners and open
negotiations with protest groups. About ten percent of the nearly 40,000
prisoners were freed, but apparently these were largely innocent people
to begin with. There have been no negotiations and Syria continues to
insist that the protests and attacks are being staged by foreign agents.
Syria insists that the U.S. is behind recent terror bombings. In
return, the Arab League would not impose more economic sanctions. But
Syria has refused to cooperate and the Arab League is now forced to
escalate. The Arab League is under pressure by its members to withdraw
the observers right away. The Arab League originally wanted 500
observers, but Syria agreed to 150 and only let 70 in, and tried to keep
them away from any violence. This failed and now Syria has lost any
remaining credibility it had with the Arab League.
Many opposition groups are calling for foreign intervention,
and armed rebel groups are escalating their attacks. As a result, a
recent opinion survey in Syria showed a little more than half the
population wants to get rid of the Assads, mainly because they fear a
destructive civil war. Syria may have a Sunni Arab majority, but the
Sunnis are divided into many tribal and political factions. Most Syrians
hate the Assads, but most fear what will follow the dictatorship. What
happened next door in Iraq after Saddam Husseins branch of the Baath
Party was overthrown in 2003 has not been ignored.
Some 6,000 civilians have died in ten months of violence.
Despite vigorous, and increasingly violent, government efforts to halt
the demonstrations, huge public protests still take place. The
government efforts to intimidate the population into silence and the
Assads appear to have run out of ideas and options.
The government admits that 2,000 of its soldiers and police
have been killed, and rebels insist many more have deserted as well. The
government is believed to hold nearly 2,000 army deserters who were
captured (before or after deserting.) The
rebel Free Syrian Army (FSA) has offered to coordinate its
operations with Arab League efforts to get the Syrian government to halt
attacks on civilians. Some Syrian border guards are still firing on
refugees and rebels on the Lebanese and Turkish borders, but most are
keeping quiet and inactive.
Aid from Qatar has begun to arrive at refugee camps in
southern Turkey. A growing number of Syrians are fleeing to Turkey and
Lebanon. The Turks are tolerating Syrian rebel bases in Turkey.
January 3, 2012: A natural gas pipeline in central Syria was
cut by an explosion. There have been several attacks like this in the
last few months. This hurts the government by cutting income and
creating unhappy citizens who are now without fuel.
January 2, 2012: The Arab League declared that Syrian
security forces were killing civilians despite the presence of Arab
League observers. While the Arab League eventually became aware of the
Syrian government trying to stage manage what the observers saw, the
Arab League also took credit for getting Syria to pull some tanks and
artillery from the cities where violence was still going on. But
overall, the Arab League observer effort is seen as a failure.
January 1, 2012:
Israeli defense officials believe that the Assad family only
has a few weeks left in power. Israel believes that the fall of the
Assads would be a major defeat for Iran, which used Syria as a base for
supporting pro-Iran Hezbollah in Lebanon. The armed rebels are expanding
into in more areas, but are still mostly in the north. Desertions from
the Syrian forces continue and a growing number of loyal soldiers are
surrendering to the rebels. This is unnerving for the Syrian government,
as the army is shrinking from desertions and those that remain are seen
as less reliable.
December 31, 2011: The UN demanded that Syria cooperate with
the Arab League observers, who are to confirm that Syria is not killing
its own citizens. The observer effort failed.
Two major opposition groups, the Syrian National Council
(SNC) and the National Coordinating Committee for Democratic Change
(NCC) have agreed to join together to overthrow the Assad dictatorship.
These two groups have not gotten along in the past, but now the removal
of the Assads is seen are more important than anything else. These two
groups do not want foreign intervention, although air support, as in
Libya, is still a possibility. At this point, no foreign air forces have
made themselves available for this work.
December 30, 2011: Hamas, the Palestinian terror group that
controls Gaza, is pulling many of its personnel out of Syria. Hamas has
long had offices, and many senior leaders, based in Syria. Other Arab
terror groups have also found sanctuary in Syria, and they are all
seeking new homes and, like Hamas, are beginning to move personnel out.
December 26, 2011: Arab League monitors arrive in Syria.
They are supposed to remain for a month.
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