Government violence against
demonstrators and armed rebels continues. On most days, there are
several hundred casualties country-wide. Pictures get out to the world
media, but this has been going on for a year now and no outside nation
has been able to aid the opposition. The majority of Syrians want a new
government, but the dictatorship has powerful foreign friends,
especially Iran and Russia. Iran provides cash, weapons and terrorism
specialists. Russia provides a veto in the UN, to prevent the
organization of a UN military aid operation for the Syrian opposition.
This prevents the kind of aid that the Libyan rebels got. The Russians
lost a lot of money when the Libyan dictatorship was overthrown. For
decades, Libya had been a major customer for Russian weapons. The new
Libyan government will not buy any more Russian weapons and will not
honor unpaid bills for past deliveries. Russia is determined not to lose
Syria in the same way. This Russian opposition sends a message that a
dictatorship can openly (via the Internet and cell-phone photos)
slaughter their people and maintain tyrannical rule in spite of most UN
members condemning this sort of misbehavior. If a tyrant has one of the
few UN nations with a Security Council veto on their side, bloody
repression can be used without fear of armed intervention. Most of the
world doesn't like this, but Russia is a nuclear power and determined to
use its veto to serve Russian interests. For the moment, the Syrian
majority are under fire and on their own. But not entirely; because this
is seen as a battle between Shia (the ruling minority in Syria and
their Iranian patron) and Sunni (most of the Moslem world, led by Saudi
Arabia), the Sunni neighbors (especially mostly Sunni Turkey and largely
Sunni Western Iraq) are quietly providing weapons and sanctuary for
Syrian Sunnis fighting the Shia Syrian dictatorship. But the Sunni
nations are unwilling to do more without the blessing of the UN.
The Syrian opposition has used their wide popular support to
create an urban guerilla force. While thousands of soldiers have
deserted, they got away with few, often no, weapons. Arms smugglers will
provide weapons, but prices are four or five times what they were a
year ago because the army and police are guarding the borders more
energetically. The guerilla activity encourages more desertions and
foreign Sunni allies are providing more and more cash for weapons.
Government military and police power shrinks each day, but the
population suffers more economic and physical losses each day as well.
Despite their difficulties, the rebels are fighting on the
outskirts of the capital, and energetic efforts by the army and secret
police to quiet things down have been only partially successful. Several
other cities, like Homs, are in open rebellion. The security forces
have to move around there in armed groups and are an occupying, not a
controlling, force. So far, over the last ten months, about 6,000 people
have died in Syria
January 28, 2012: The Arab League suspended its observer
team in Syria, because of Syrian government interference. The observer
team was created and allowed on the understanding that the team could
travel anywhere to see that the government forces had stopped killing
civilians. In return the Arab League would lift sanctions. The killing
continued (averaging nearly fifty a day for the last week) and the
observers were restricted by the security forces. The Arab League has
asked the UN to help stop the killing, but Russia has a veto which it is
using to support the Syrian government. The Arab League will increase
sanctions and the Syrian government and population will suffer economic
damage. The struggle is an endurance contest.
January 25, 2012: The head of the Syrian Red Crescent
(Moslem Red Cross) was shot dead on a highway while travelling in a car
marked as belonging to Red Crescent. The government blamed this on
terrorists; the opposition blamed it on the government. The UN openly
condemned whoever did it.
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