In its 150th anniversary year, the Social Democratic Party of Germany (SPD) is preoccupied with the election campaign. Opening the Party Congress on 14 April, its candidate for chancellor, Peer Steinbrück, began his speech decisively: «I want to become Chancellor of the Federal Republic of Germany».
According to the polls, the SPD is noticeably losing votes to the Christian Democrats. At present, with less than six months to go before the election, 40-41 percent of voters are planning to vote for the Christian Democratic Union (CDU)/Christian Socialist Union (CSU) and 23-27 percent for the SPD. In the last Bundestag elections in 2009, the SPD collected 23 percent of the votes. The conservatives (Christian Democrats), having taken an historic gamble transforming themselves into a centrist party, did not lose out. They managed to push aside the Social Democrats who are now only able to oppose the CDU/CSU in alliance with the Greens. This alliance outmanoeuvred the conservatives in the January (2013) state elections in Lower Saxony, however. The Social Democrats are also being encouraged by their success in the states of North Rhine-Westphalia and Schleswig-Holstein (elections were held in these states in May 2012). Theoretically, this could also work in the Bundestag elections, but let’s not forget that voting is set to take place in the Landtag of Bavaria a week before Germany’s general election, where the Social Democrats and the Greens are doomed to remain in opposition.
To win in September, the Social Democrats and their potential allies (the Greens) need to increase their popularity by at least five percent, no matter what. As things stand now, 2-3 percent of the vote could prove to be crucial. Nevertheless, Social Democrat leaders are categorically ruling out the possibility of a coalition agreement with the left-wing party, although the party’s chairman, Sigmar Gabriel, has urged that 20 years after the reunification of Germany, attitudes towards the left as a relic of the Communist era be revised.
The biggest sensation in the spring polls has been caused by the popularity of the new «Alternative for Germany» party. Polls conducted in connection with the Alternative for Germany party’s founding congress showed its support ranged from 17 to 26 percent, almost the same as the Social Democrats. It is by no means a given that the young party will receive that many votes in the election, yet the very creation of Alternative for Germany, which is calling for the dissolution of the eurozone, has made the European establishment seriously uneasy…
Alternative for Germany is positioning itself as an extreme right-wing party and it is expected that in the elections, the party will gain support from part of the conservative electorate – supporters of the CDU/CSU. At the same time, it is not only the extreme conservatives who are dissatisfied with Chancellor Angela Merkel’s policy to save the euro. Both the left-wing electorate and businessmen are in sympathy with the Alternative for Germany party. There is a growing distrust in society regarding the myth that the existence of the euro is primarily of benefit to Germany and is allowing the country to strengthen its economy through exports to countries in southern Europe.
An old interview with Helmut Kohl, the veteran politician responsible for introducing the euro, has once again started to crop up in the German press. He admits that he would never have won a referendum on the introduction of a European currency; aware of this, he consciously acted like a dictator. And while countries have doomed themselves to stringent budget cuts under pressure from Germany, by the dictator called Chancellor Angela Merkel, the Germans are dissatisfied. They are directing this dissatisfaction against those countries whose governments, according to the majority of the German population, have carried out irresponsible economic policies.
One gets the impression that criticism of Germany’s hardline policy abroad is only increasing Merkel’s influence within the country. In contrast, Peer Steinbrück, despite his experience leading the Federal Ministry of Finance from 2005-2009, is not taking advantage of his reputation as a politician competent in financial matters. Germans are more dissatisfied by the fact that Steinbrück is welcome in Great Britain (London positions itself in opposition to Berlin on many issues of European integration) and Greece. Steinbrück’s recent reception at the Elysée Palace did not gain him any extra popularity at home either, although for different reasons. Social Democrat François Hollande, who has not fulfilled his pre-election promises with regard to supporting demands for social justice, is bad publicity for Germany’s Social Democrats. All the same, following its century and a half tradition, the Social Democratic Party of Germany at its party congress declared the struggle for social justice as the quintessence of its pre-election campaign. The party is promising to bring in a minimum wage, provide equal pay for men and women, allocate more resources to education and childcare and, at the same time, increase taxes.
It should be said that the personal influence of the Social Democrat candidate has suffered noticeably as the result of a campaign which unfolded in the press regarding the high fee of 25,000 euros he received for speaking in Bochum in November 2012. Shortly afterwards, the newspaperNeue Zürcher Zeitung am Sonntag revealed that Steinbrück had avoided paying tax on a fee of 1,500 euros received in Switzerland two years ago. Steinbrück’s remarks with regard to the elections in Italy (commenting on the «clown» Silvio Berlusconi) secured him the reputation of someone who speaks before he thinks. As a result, Steinbrück’s popularity is at its lowest level since 2005; support for the SPD, which stood at 30 percent last September, dropped following the announcement that he was their candidate for chancellor (many commentators have directly associated this with an unsuccessful candidacy).
In comparison with the era of Gerhard Schröder, who had the support of 20 million voters behind him in 1998, the SPD has suffered colossal losses. Even if he did win the election, it is hardly to be expected that Steinbrück will become a second Schröder in world politics and steer the country towards implementing a foreign policy that is independent of America. The relevant section of the programme adopted at the SPD Congress starts from the position that the party is seeking to renew and strengthen transatlantic links. The Social Democrats have offered to act as a mediator in the Russian-American dialogue (1), although everybody knows that Russia and America are capable of building relations without resorting to the help of mediators. In all likelihood, Steinbrück will build a relationship with Washington by emphasising the ideological affinity of the SPD and the Democratic Party in America. The SPD, as well as the Greens, have high hopes of Barack Obama’s forthcoming visit to Berlin in June. Renate Künast, chairwoman of the Green Party in the Bundestag, believes that Obama «is not going to lead a pre-election campaign for Angela Merkel»(2).
In the event that the Christian Democrats win the election, they will have to choose junior coalition partners: the Free Democratic Party (FDP), the SPD or the Greens. Experience shows that in terms of Russian-German relations, the makeup of a future coalition is not of fundamental importance, since Berlin and Moscow have an objective interest in maintaining a strategic partnership. Angela Merkel spoke about this openly during President Putin’s recent visit to Germany. For his part, Peer Steinbrück believes that Russia «will invariably be a partner whose interests we know well and must take into account» (3).
Several months before the September elections, the positions of the SPD and the CDU/CSU in the Bundestag agree on virtually every important foreign policy issue. The stability and predictability of its foreign policy is a long-established principle in Germany. Germany’s partners, including Russia, can only welcome this principle, which will hold no matter which party comes into power.
No comments:
Post a Comment