The conclusion is based on a theory of cycles mapped out by Soviet economist Nikolai Kondratiev. According to the theory, the next world war may start in the upcoming decade, believes Professor Sergei Malkov of Moscow State University. In an interview with the Voice of Russia on Thursday, he elaborated on the topic. Kondratiev waves are thought to be cycle-like phenomena in the modern world economy. Ranging from approximately forty to sixty years, the cycles consist of alternating periods, such as expansion, stagnation and recession.
There are a total of six such cycles ranging from 1803 to 2060. The fourth cycle lasts approximately from the end of World War II to the second half of the 1980s. At present, we are going through the fifth cycle that Kondratiev says is due to wrap up in 2018. Supporters of this theory link each and every economic cycle to the relevant technological level. The current level is characterized by the development of IT, telecommunications and robotics technology. The sixth cycle should see a breakthrough into nano-, bio- and IT-technologies.
At the same time, each cycle also comes hand in hand with crises and wars. The end of the current cycle and a shift to the next technological level may result in a political instability and a new world war, Sergei Malkov says.
"Right now, we are going through a crisis that turned into a recession, Malkov says, citing desperate attempts to ride out of the crisis with the help of using the so-called NBIS-technologies, namely, nano-, bio-, info- and cognito-technologies. But this period is very dangerous because the way out is yet to be seen and contradictions are still in place. This is a period when world wars typically take place, Malkov adds."
If we take the cycle or Kondratiev waves theory of alternating periods, the worst bloodsheds occurred at the recession phases which means that now we are on the verge of the crisis and 2016-17 will be critical.
Certainly, it will be no traditional-sense world war but Malkov has no doubts that a psychological, economic, trade and IT war would be waged. (voice)
In line with the Kondratiev theory, World War III took place at the turning point of cycle 4 and 5. It involved no weapons but the entire geopolitical map of the world was rehashed and the then would-be world ruler, the USSR and its allies fell. Today, its place is taken by China.
Today’s super cycle will be the time of interaction between China and the US and the looming Korean Peninsula conflict perfectly fits in this framework, Malkov says . The crisis was triggered by conflict-provoking US policy that Washington pursues in the zones of its interests. The Pacific is packed with its “technology” competitors- Russia, China, Japan and even South Korea.
The expert believes that the US is losing its global positions, as economic fluctuations drag the dollar down while political volatility boosts America’s role as a global referee.
As the US is losing its economic levers, it has to shift focus to political, financial, economic and technological tools having nothing left but provoke instability across the world.
Though it might look utopic, in reality the carve-up of the world is not that unreal even regardless any theory of cycles.
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