North Korea’s continuous war of rhetoric in the wake of recent United Nations condemnations may appear absurd to most people at first glance. Yet it actually has its own logic, and it is not a totally crazy logic. In fact, the third nuclear test, the launch of a satellite in last December and the ensuing ’frenzied’ language used during the joint U.S-South Korea military exercises reflect the hopes and ambitions of President Kim Jong-Un to kill two birds with one stone, or perhaps more appropriately, to have his cake and to eat it too.
At the international level, North Korea wants to drag United States back to the negotiating table and extract more economic assistance from the West by playing the nuclear card. Despite Kim’s warnings and defiant tone over the nuclear tests, Pyongyang expressed an eagerness to hold proactive telephone talks with the U.S. President Barack Obama during a February visit by Dennis Rodman, a famous National Basketball Association (NBA) basketball player.
On the domestic front, Kim can solidify his leadership role in the current sequence of tough stands against the United States and South Korea. The last July shake-up in the leadership of the Armed Forces, when High Commander Ri Yong-Ho was relieved of all his duties, has highlighted the on-going and intense struggle within the political leadership after Kim was sworn in as the leader of the Communist Party of Korea and the government. The “Military First” policy (Songun in Korean), which puts the Korean People’s Army on a pedestal in the state affairs and prioritizes the army in the allocation of national resources, has made the armed forces the most powerful interest group in the country and a faction whose support the new young leader desperately needs.
Kim also understands that, thanks to China’s continued support, it would be very difficult for North Korea to experience Iraq or Libya’s political fate. The Sino-North Korean Treaty of Mutual Assistance and Friendly Cooperation, signed in 1961, clearly states that the two countries should “adopt immediately all necessary measures to oppose any country or coalition of countries that might attack either nation.” Consequently, China will do whatever necessary to prevent three things: First, any military attack against North Korea; second, China’s involvement in a military confrontation with its essential commercial partners, in particular the United States and South Korea; third, massive casualties and economic hardship, as the Korean War caused between 1950 and 1953.
North Korea’s strategic importance is not questioned by Chinese leaders. The Communist state’s geopolitical location is often overlooked by those Chinese analysts who suggest abandoning Kim’s regime. The truth is that the frequently erratic North Korean state is still useful to Beijing as it serves as an effective buffer. If North Korea were to fall and Kim dethroned in favor of a new political regime with a pro-Western orientation, this would pave the way for the United States to redeploy its forces in South Korea along the northeastern border of China, thus potentially generating a greater security threat when the mutual military trust between the U.S. and China would be at a low point.
It is also essential for China to maintain the stability of its northeastern region. A massive wave of North Korean refugees flocking to China would engulf the entire region in chaos and disrupts a regional economy that aspires to regain its former status as the industrial heartland of the country. Therefore, China’s prime strategic concern is to ensure the survival of Kim’s regime and prevent North Korea from collapsing. But should Beijing continue being an ally of North Korea, regardless of its behavior?
Although North Korea’s putative nuclear weapons are only targeted at the U.S. territory, its atomic program presents inherent risks to China as well, perhaps even more serious than to the U.S. The third nuclear bomb test conducted in February was located just a little more than 100 kilometers from North Korea’s northeast border with China. Although Chinese authorities comforted people living in that region by telling them that the high mountains along the border constitute a shield against the spread of nuclear radiation, all scientists are well aware that the pollution of underground water resources by nuclear leakage cannot be ruled out. Serious pollution of the underground water in northeast China would compromise food safety for tens of millions people.
Already in 2010 the Chinese central government issued an official document stating that the northeastern territories should become a pillar of national food security. In 2011 the total wheat crop of this region amounted to 108 million tons, one fifth of China’s total wheat production. Japan’s Fukushima Daiichi nuclear accident on March 11, 2011 is a lesson well learned in East Asia. The soil of the Fukushima Prefecture, where agriculture is one of the major regional economic fulcrums, is now highly contaminated, and this will be a legacy lasting for decades, if not centuries. As a result, food production has been seriously damaged and the local economy greatly harmed.
China cannot afford the risk of a similar disaster occurring in its northeast territories. One option for Beijing is to offer North Korea a nuclear umbrella in the same way as the U.S. protects Japan and South Korea with its own nuclear capabilities. Chinese leaders should also try to convince Pyongyang to completely abandon its nuclear program. A fourth nuclear test conducted in North Korea would put China’s interests and population at greater risk than those of any other country and upset the delicate balance that has existed since the end of the Korean War.
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