Greece’s secret loan from Goldman Sachs Group Inc. was a costly mistake from the start. On the day the 2001 deal was struck, the government owed the bank
about 600 million euros ($793 million) more than the 2.8 billion euros
it borrowed, said Spyros Papanicolaou, who took over the country’s
debt-management agency in 2005. By then, the price of the transaction, a
derivative that disguised the loan and that Goldman Sachs persuaded
Greece not to test with competitors, had almost doubled to 5.1 billion
euros, he said. Papanicolaou and his predecessor, Christoforos Sardelis, revealing
details for the first time of a contract that helped Greece mask its
growing sovereign debt to meet European Union requirements, said the
country didn’t understand what it was buying and was ill-equipped to
judge the risks or costs.
“The Goldman Sachs deal is a very sexy story between two sinners,”
Sardelis, who oversaw the swap as head of Greece’s Public Debt
Management Agency from 1999 through 2004, said in an interview.
Goldman Sachs’s instant gain on the transaction illustrates the
dangers to clients who engage in complex, tailored trades that lack
comparable market prices and whose fees aren’t disclosed. Harvard
University, Alabama’s Jefferson County and the German city of Pforzheim
all have found themselves on the losing end of the one-of-a-kind private
deals typically pitched to them by securities firms as means to improve
their finances.
Goldman Sachs DNA
“Like the municipalities, Greece is just another example of a poorly
governed client that got taken apart,” Satyajit Das, a risk consultant
and author of “Extreme Money: Masters of the Universe and the Cult of
Risk,” said in a phone interview. “These trades are structured not to be
unwound, and Goldman is ruthless about ensuring that its interests
aren’t compromised -- it’s part of the DNA of that organization.”
A gain of 600 million euros represents about 12 percent of the $6.35
billion in revenue Goldman Sachs reported for trading and principal
investments in 2001, a business segment that includes the bank’s
fixed-income, currencies and commodities division, which arranged the
trade and posted record sales that year. The unit, then run by Lloyd C.
Blankfein, 57, now the New York-based bank’s chairman and chief
executive officer, also went on to post record quarterly revenue the
following year.
‘Extremely Profitable’
The Goldman Sachs transaction swapped debt issued by Greece in
dollars and yen for euros using an historical exchange rate, a mechanism
that implied a reduction in debt, Sardelis said. It also used an
off-market interest-rate swap to repay the loan. Those swaps allow
counterparties to exchange two forms of interest payment, such as fixed
or floating rates, referenced to a notional amount of debt.
The trading costs on the swap rose because the deal had a notional
value of more than 15 billion euros, more than the amount of the loan
itself, said a former Greek official with knowledge of the transaction
who asked not to be identified because the pricing was private. The size
and complexity of the deal meant that Goldman Sachs charged
proportionately higher trading fees than for deals of a more standard
size and structure, he said.
“It looks like an extremely profitable transaction for Goldman,” said
Saul Haydon Rowe, a partner in Devon Capital LLP, a London-based firm
that advises global investors on derivatives disputes.
Disappearing Debt
Goldman Sachs declined to comment about how much it made on the
swaps. Fiona Laffan, a spokeswoman for the firm in London, said the
agreements were executed in accordance with guidelines provided by
Eurostat, the EU’s statistical agency.
“Greece actually executed the swap transactions to reduce its
debt-to-gross-domestic-product ratio because all member states were
required by the Maastricht Treaty to show an improvement in their public
finances,” Laffan said in an e- mail. “The swaps were one of several
techniques that many European governments used to meet the terms of the
treaty.”
Cross-currency swaps are contracts borrowers use to convert foreign
currency debt into a domestic-currency obligation using the market
exchange rate. As first reported in 2003, Goldman Sachs used a
fictitious, historical exchange rate in the swaps to make about 2
percent of Greece’s debt disappear from its national accounts. To repay
the 2.8 billion euros it borrowed from the bank, Greece entered into a
separate swap contract tied to interest-rate swings.
Falling bond yields caused that bet to sour, and tweaks to the deal
failed to prevent the debt from almost doubling in size by the time the
swap was restructured in August 2005.
Greece, which last month secured a second, 130 billion-euro bailout,
is sitting on debt equal to about 160 percent of its GDP as of last
year.
Eurostat Rules
Under Eurostat accounting rules, nations were permitted until 2008 to
use so-called off-market rates in swaps to manage their debt. Greek
officials, including Sardelis, say they learned that other EU countries
such as Italy had employed similar methods to shrink their debts, taking
advantage of the secrecy of over-the-counter derivatives compared with
swaps traded on exchanges.
Eurostat said Greece didn’t report the Goldman Sachs transactions in
2008 when the agency told countries to restate their accounts.
“The Greek authorities had never informed Eurostat about this complex
issue and no opinion on the accounting treatment had been requested,”
the Luxembourg-based agency said in a statement last month.
Eurostat said it had only “general” discussions with financial
institutions on its debt and deficit guidelines when the swap was
executed in 2001. “It is possible that Goldman Sachs asked us for
general clarifications,” Eurostat said, declining to elaborate.
Loudiadis Role
Bloomberg News filed a lawsuit at the EU’s General Court seeking
disclosure of European Central Bank documents on Greece’s use of
derivatives to hide loans. Releasing such information could damage the
commercial interests of the ECB’s counterparties, hurt banks and
markets, and undermine the economic policy of Greece and the EU, the
central bank said last May in a response to the suit. A judgment is
pending.
Sardelis, 61, and Papanicolaou, 72, said several banks, including
Goldman Sachs, made proposals to manage Greece’s debt. The bank was
represented by its top European sales executive at the time, Addy
Loudiadis. She was trusted, said Papanicolaou, because she had helped
price competitors’ derivatives and in 1999 warned the Greeks against
buying a complex swap.
Sardelis, a former bank economist, described Loudiadis, who’s based
in London, as “very professional -- a little bit aggressive as is
everyone at Goldman Sachs.”
‘Teaser Rate’
The derivative Loudiadis offered Sardelis in 2001 was also complex.
Designed to provide a cheap way to repay 2.8 billion euros, the swap had
a “teaser rate,” or a three-year grace period, after which Greece would
have 15 years to repay Goldman Sachs, Sardelis said. All in, the deal
appeared cheap to officials at the time, he said.
“We calculated that this had an extra cost above our normal funding
cost on the yield curve of 15 basis points,” Sardelis said. A basis
point is 0.01 percentage point.
Loudiadis, now CEO of Rothesay Life, a Goldman Sachs unit that
insures longevity risk for U.K. corporate pension plans, declined to
comment, a company spokeswoman said.
‘Very Bad Bet’
Sardelis said he realized three months after the deal was signed that
it was more complex than he appreciated. After the Sept. 11, 2001,
attacks on the U.S., bond yields plunged as stock markets sold off
worldwide. That caused a mark-to-market loss on the swap for Greece
because of the formula used by Goldman Sachs to compute Greece’s
repayments over time.
“If you calculated that when we did it, it looked very nice because
the yield curve had a certain shape,” Sardelis said. “But after Sept.
11, we realized this would be the wrong formula. So after we discussed
it with Goldman Sachs, we decided to change to a simpler formula.”
The revised deal proposed by the bank and executed in 2002, was to
base repayments on what was then a new kind of derivative -- an
inflation swap linked to the euro-area harmonized index of consumer
prices. An inflation swap is a financial bet that pays off according to
the degree to which a consumer-price index exceeds or falls short of a
pre-specified level at maturity.
That didn’t work out well for Greece either. Bond yields fell,
pushing the government’s losses to 5.1 billion euros, according to an
analysis commissioned by Papanicolaou. It was “a very bad bet,” he said
in an interview.
“This is even more reprehensible,” Papanicolaou said of the revised
deal. “Goldman asked them to make a change that actually made things
even worse because they went into an inflation swap.”
Confidentiality Requirement
Greece was handicapped, in part, by the terms Goldman Sachs imposed, he said.
“Sardelis couldn’t actually do what every debt manager should do when
offered something, which is go to the market to check the price,” said
Papanicolaou, who retired in 2010. “He didn’t do that because he was
told by Goldman that if he did that, the deal is off.”
Sardelis declined to comment about the analysis, as did Petros
Christodoulou, director general of the debt-management agency since
February 2010.
It isn’t unusual for dealers to impose confidentiality requirements
on clients in complex transactions to prevent traders from using the
information to front-run or trade against the bank arranging and hedging
the deal, said a former official who analyzed the swap and asked not to
be named because the details are private.
‘Large Number’
Goldman Sachs’s initial 600 million-euro gross profit “sounds like a
large number, but you have to take into account what the bank will be
setting aside as a credit reserve, the cost to Goldman to fund the loan
and the cost of hedging the currency component,” said Peter Shapiro,
managing director of Swap Financial Group LLC in South Orange, New
Jersey, an independent swaps adviser. “It’s hard to tell what the profit
margin would have been.”
The report Papanicolaou commissioned after taking over the agency
showed the repayment formula meant that Greece would have to pay Goldman
Sachs 400 million euros a year, he said. The coupon and the
mark-to-market swings on the swap prompted George Alogoskoufis, then
finance minister, to decide to restructure the deal again to limit
losses, Papanicolaou said.
Loudiadis and a team of Goldman Sachs advisers returned to Athens in
August 2005, according to former Greek officials. The agreement they
reached to transfer the swap to National Bank of Greece SA and extend
the maturity to 2037 from 2019, gave the Greeks what they wanted,
Papanicolaou said.
‘Squeeze Taxpayers’
The 5.1 billion-euro mark-to-market value of the swap was “locked
in,” Papanicolaou said. It was that politically motivated decision to
restructure and fix the increased market value that did as much damage
as the original swap, said Sardelis, now a board member of Ethniki
General Insurance Co., a subsidiary of National Bank of Greece.
“You can’t have prudent debt management if you change all the assumptions all the time,” he said.
Gustavo Piga, a professor of economics at University of Rome Tor
Vergata and author of “Derivatives and Public Debt Management,” sees a
different lesson.
“In secret deals, intermediaries have the upper hand and use it to
squeeze taxpayers,” Piga said in an interview. “The bargaining power is
in investment banks’ hands.”
No comments:
Post a Comment