A power void has emerged in
But after the group's top command surrendered en masse to the government in December, the question now is whether an outsider group like the Rastrojos or Urabeños will try to move into the territory, or whether an offshoot of the ERPAC will step up and reassert themselves. The other scenario is that rebel group the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia (FARC), once the ERPAC's primary supplier of coca base, will use this opportunity to reoccupy their former territory.
The ERPAC followed a predictable trajectory after police killed founding leader Pedro Oliveiro Guerrero, alias "Cuchillo," in December 2010. The group splintered, with one faction reportedly defecting to work as mercenaries for the FARC guerrillas. The largest faction surrended to the government in December, demonstrating the inability of Guerrero's successor to hold the ERPAC together. In December, 269 alleged members of the neo-paramilitary group turned in their weapons to authorities, although only 21 were arrested at the time, including the group's top command.
Now, police say they have identified another ERPAC faction poised to take over where Guerrero left off. According to El Tiempo, this is a group of just 100 fighters based in Vichada, an impoverished province which borders
The ERPAC were once the dominant group in four of the five provinces that make up
One deciding factor will be whether the ERPAC splinter group has the backing of one of Colombia's most wanted drug entrepreneurs, Daniel Barrera, alias "El Loco." Barrera has been trafficking drugs from the Eastern Plains since the 1980s, connecting the suppliers of coca with traffickers who can process and transport cocaine. He brokered the business alliance between the ERPAC and the 16th Front in Vichada, once one of the FARC's richest units, and the 43rd Front, based in
The FARC, meanwhile, have been pushed to the periphery of the Eastern Plains. In Vichada, the group is limited to the southwestern corner of the province and sits at the bottom of the drug supply chain, selling coca base to the ERPAC, who process it into cocaine and send it abroad. Even though the splintering of the ERPAC would appear to give the guerrillas ample opportunity to assume control of the entire supply chain, the reality is that the FARC cannot reoccupy this territory if they do not have the manpower.
Regaining influence over the drug trafficking networks in the Eastern Plains will not be easy as sending another FARC unit into the area. The guerrillas need commanders who have knowledge of the ground: contacts in the security forces and the support of the local population. At the moment, the FARC unit best poised to challenge the ERPAC in Vichada, the 16th Front, has none of these things.
The same challenge faces the other criminal organizations, the Rastrojos and the Urabeños, who could be looking to gain a foothold in the Eastern Plains. But now could be opportune a time as any for an outsider group to make a move.
No comments:
Post a Comment