There is no question that after Western- and Gulf Arab-backed Sunni
Salafist radicals take complete control of Syria or become a significant
part of a post-Bashar al-Assad Syrian government, Syria’s minority
Alawite community will seek refuge in a contested strip of Turkey that
extends from Anatolia along the Mediterranean coast along the northwest
border with Syria. The strip already has a significant Alawite
community.
That strip is Turkey’s Hatay province, a former Ottoman territory that
became a French-ruled territory after the signing of the Treaty of
Sevres of 1920 between the World War I Allied nations and the Ottoman
Empire.
There are already indications that Hatay could become a second Gaza
Strip, a cramped refugee sanctuary for Alawites and other religious
minorities fleeing a Salafist-dominated regime in Damascus bent on the
same level of retribution against supporters of the ousted regime as
that meted out against Qaddafi loyalists by the Salafist-dominated
regime in Libya.
Hatay may even become a separate Alawite-ruled state dedicated to
waging constant retaliatory warfare against a Salafist regime in
Damascus.
There is a historical precedent for an independent Alawite-dominated
Hatay. The Treaty of Sevres, which awarded Hatay, also known as the
Sanjak of Alexandretta, to the French mandate of Syria under the League
of Nations, was neither ratified by the Ottoman Sultan or his successor,
President Kemal Ataturk of the Republic of Turkey.
A Franco-Turkish treaty of 1921 recognized Alexandretta as autonomous,
but under de facto French suzerainty. In 1923, Alexandretta became part
of the French state of Aleppo and in 1925, as a result of the Treaty of
Lausanne, Alexandretta was integrated into the French mandate of Syria
but with a continued degree of autonomy.
Despite the Franco-Turkish treaty, Ataturk considered Alexandretta,
which had a majority Alawite population, to be an integral part of
Turkey. The Alawites, known by the Turkish name “Alevis” in Turkey
proper, are a sect of the Shi’a branch of Islam. Ataturk reasoned that
the name “Hatay” was derived from the name for the one-time Anatolian
Hittite Empire and, thus, Hatay was historically Turkish.
The Alawites, never comfortable about being ruled by the Sunni Muslim
Ottomans, were anywhere from ambivalent to supportive of being ruled by
the strongly secularist Ataturk regime and its like-minded successors.
Along with the Syriac Christians, Druze, Armenians, and Circassians, the
Alawites, continued to account for a majority of Alexandretta’s
population. Alexandretta began to advocate for the independence of Syria
from France – a Syria that would include Alexandretta. Ataturk began
arguing that Alexandretta’s Turkish minority was being mistreated by
Alexandretta’s Alawite-dominated administration.
In 1936, Turkey complained to the League of Nations and demanded that
Alexandretta become a Turkish province because the area had a majority
Turkish Sunni population. Claims of Turkish majority status in
Alexandretta were dubious since there were no reliable census statistics
upon which Turkey could stake its claim. In fact, Alawites Armenian
Christians, Druze, and Circassians, as a bloc, far outnumbered Sunni
Turks in the territory.
In 1937, the League of Nations awarded Alexandretta its autonomy as a
distinct but not a separate part of French Syria. It was agreed that
France and Turkey would share defense responsibilities in the contested
territory. However, Turkey took full advantage of the defense-sharing
pact and in 1938 Turkish troops invaded Alexandretta and expelled most
of the Alawite and Armenian communities. That same year, France
conducted a census that allotted seats in the Sanjak of Alexandretta
assembly with Turks receiving 22 seats, Alawites 9, Armenians 5, Sunni
Arabs 2, and Syriac Christians 2. With a majority of Turks in the
legislature, the Sanjak assembly on September 2, 1938 proclaimed the
Republic of Hatay under joint Turkish and French co-dominion status.
Before he died in 1938, Ataturk was insistent on Turkey furthering its
claims to Hatay. France, fearing the threat from Nazi Germany, was in no
position to fend of Turkey’s irredentist desires for the former
Alexandretta. Hatay was gradually absorbed into Turkey. The Republic of
Hatay’s “President” and “Prime Minister” were members of the Turkish
parliament. In 1939, in a dubiously-administered referendum, Hatay voted
to join Turkey. The French did not intervene because they hoped that
Turkey would join the Allies against Hitler. However, Turkey remained
neutral in the Second World War.
Turkey co-opted some of Hatay’s remaining Alawites in the referendum by
pointing out the success and freedom of the Alawites (Alevis) inside
Turkey. However, Turkey sent thousands of Turks into Hatay to vote in
the referendum and ensure the outcome.
Present-day Syria, ruled by the Alawite Assad family and a largely
Alawite oligarchy, never recognized Alexandretta’s incorporation into
Turkey. Syrian maps still call Hatay “Liwa’ Aliskenderun,” Arabic for
Alexandretta area. Beginning in 2003, Syrian Alawites and Christians
began buying property in Hatay, perhaps concerned about a future change
of government in Syria that would force them to flee. Due to the lifting
of visa requirements between Turkey and Syria in 2009, more Syrian
Alawites and Christians, especially those living in Latakia, began
traveling to Hatay. With the assistance of their Alawite and Christian
cousins in Hatay, the Syrians began investing in more real estate.
One thing that the Alawites of Syria and Hatay and the Alevis of Turkey
share in common is their belief that Sunni Muslims, particularly the
Wahhabi and Salafist strains, are intolerant extremists. Sunni radicals
see Alawites and their Shi’a brethren as heretics and apostates.
What lies at the heart of the Western-inspired revolt against Assad in
Syria is that Syria’s colonial ruler, France, and its NATO allies and
Wahhabi friends in Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates
have taken sides in a religious civil war between Syrian Sunnis – who
are, by no means, united – and “all the rest” in Syria: Alawites, Syriac
Christians, Maronites, Armenians, Druze, and Circassians.
Syria’s Kurds have largely thrown in their lot with Sunni Arabs,
obviously hoping for a deal like the autonomy achieved by their Kurdish
kin in northern Iraq after the overthrow of Saddam Hussein by the United
States and its allies.
Although the Sunni-dominated Justice and Development Party (AKP)
government of Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan has painted
itself as a moderate Islamist party, it has come to the defense of the
Salafist Sunni elements trying to overthrow Assad. There are multiple
news reports of massive amounts of weapons being supplied to the
Islamist radicals in Syria by Turkey.
Hatay Alawites and Turkish Alevis are generally pro-Assad, as can be
expected, since Assad and his family and supporters are also primarily
Alawite. Of course, that puts the Alawites of Turkey at loggerheads with
Erdogan’s AKP government. Hatay Alawites and Turkish Alevis have held
pro-Assad demonstrations in Turkey. The break between the AKP and the
Alawites/Alevis may be manageable by Erdogan, except for one major
problem. The opposition Republican People’s Party (CHP), which calls
itself center-leftist but represents the secular Kemalist doctrine of
Turkish politics, is led by Kemal Kilicdaroglu, who, like Assad, is an
Alawite.
The CHP and Kilicdaroglu have been outwardly sympathetic to Assad and
have criticized Erdogan for not giving Assad enough time to institute
reforms in Syria. The CHP has even moved to a position that, in some
respects, is more critical of Israel’s machinations in Middle East
affairs, than the anti-Israel position of the AKP. The CHP’s
policymakers have referred to Israel, the United States, and other
“imperialists” as being behind the revolutions in Syria, Libya, Egypt,
and Tunisia. Deputy CHP chairman Faruk Logoglu has accused Erdogan of
taking sides in Syria’s civil war. Weighing into the debate, the
right-wing Turkish Nationalist Movement Party (MHP) has accused Erdogan
of neglecting Syria’s minority Turkmen trapped in Syria’s civil war.
The future of Syria and Turkey is clouded as long as NATO, including
Turkey, and the Salafist states of Arabia and North Africa continue to
interfere in the Syrian tragedy. Hatay province will become a refuge for
Syria’s Alawites and other minorities seeking protection from expected
retribution from a Salafist-controlled or dominated government in
Damascus. The CHP and MHP parties will protect the Alawites, Turkmen,
Circassian, and other minorities in Hatay. Erdogan’s AKP will be seen as
being in league with the Salafists of Syria. Such a scenario spells a
potential civil war not only in Syria, but also in Turkey. In the
cross-fire will be Hatay, the “new Gaza Strip” where Alawite refugees
from Syria may find themselves swapped for thousands of Syrian Sunnis
currently living in Hatay refugee camps. These camps are closely
protected by Turkish troops from unwanted media investigators.
There is also the question as to what side thousands of Afghan-Uzbeks
who were settled in Hatay thirty years ago during the Soviet-mujaheddin
war in Afghanistan will take. Afghans have been used by Salafists in the
past as willing mercenaries. Salafist Afghans were spotted among rebels
in Libya and have surfaced among the rebels in Syria.
Of course, such details are immaterial to Secretary of State Hillary
Clinton and her “Friends of Syria” contrivance. Clinton’s ignorance of
the geo-political ramifications of unwise and unwarranted actions is
only matched by Condoleezza Rice among recent U.S. Secretaries of State.
The Gaza Strip, which is 140 square miles and has been turned into a
virtual ghetto by Israel for Palestinian refugees, will pale in
comparison to the burgeoning refugee-swollen Hatay Strip, which is 1815
square miles in area. Gaza’s beleaguered population stands at 1.5
million, the same as the current population of Hatay. However, at almost
four times the size of Gaza, Hatay could become a major refuge for
Syria’s minorities escaping from Salafist brutality. Demands for the
restoration of an Alawite-dominated independent Alexandretta/Hatay will
ultimately follow and the Hatay Strip will have one major goal: revenge
against the Salafists in Damascus.
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