At a military ceremony yesterday, Mexican Defense Minister Guillermo
Galvan Galva described the national security situation in stark terms. “Clearly,
in some sectors of the country public security has been completely overrun,”
said Galvan, adding that “it should be recognized that national security is
seriously threatened.” He went on to say that organized crime in the country
has managed to penetrate not only society, but also the country’s state
institutions.
Galvan also endorsed the military’s role in combating insecurity,
asserting that although they have a responsibility to acknowledge that “there
have been mistakes,” the armed forces have an “unrestricted” respect for human
rights…
Via U.S. DEPARTMENT
OF STATE, Bureau of Consular Affairs, “Travel Warning: Mexico.” 8
February 2012 [2].
The Department of State has issued this Travel Warning to inform U.S. citizens about the security situation in Mexico. General
information on the overall security situation is provided immediately below.
For information on security conditions in specific regions of Mexico, which
can vary, travelers should reference the state-by-state assessments further
below.
This Travel Warning supersedes the Travel Warning for Mexico dated April 22, 2011 to consolidate and
update information about the security situation and to advise the public of
additional restrictions on the travel of U.S. government (USG) personnel…
General Conditions:
…Gun battles between rival TCOs or with Mexican authorities have taken
place in towns and cities in many parts of Mexico, especially in the border
region. Gun battles have occurred in broad daylight on streets and in
other public venues, such as restaurants and clubs. During some of these
incidents, U.S.
citizens have been trapped and temporarily prevented from leaving the
area. TCOs use stolen cars and trucks to create roadblocks on major
thoroughfares, preventing the military and police from responding to criminal
activity. The location and timing of future armed engagements is unpredictable.
We recommend that you defer travel to the areas indicated in this Travel
Warning and to exercise extreme caution when traveling throughout the northern
border region…
State-by-State Assessment:
Below is a state-by-state assessment of security conditions throughout Mexico divided
into northern and southern regions. The accompanying map will help in
identifying individual locations. Travelers should be mindful that even
if no advisories are in effect for a given state, crime and violence can occur
anywhere. For general information about travel conditions in Mexico, see our
Country Specific Information.
Northern Mexico
Baja California
(north): Tijuana is a
major city/travel destination in the Northern portion of Baja
California…You should exercise caution in the northern state of Baja California,
particularly at night…
Chihuahua:
Juarez and Chihuahua are the major
cities/travel destinations in Chihuahua…You
should defer non-essential travel to the state of Chihuahua…
Coahuila: You should
defer non-essential travel to the state of Coahuila. The State of Coahuila continues to
experience high rates of violent crimes and narcotics-related murders…
Durango:
You should defer non-essential travel to the state of Durango. Between 2006 and 2010, the number
of narcotics-related murders in the State of Durango increased dramatically…
Nuevo Leon:
Monterrey is a major city/travel destination in
Nuevo Leon…You should defer
non-essential travel to the state of Nuevo Leon,
except the metropolitan area of Monterrey
where you should exercise caution…
San Luis Potosi:
You should defer non-essential travel to the state of San
Luis Potosi, except the city of San Luis Potosi where you should exercise
caution. The entire stretch of highway 57D in San Luis Potosi and portions of the state
east of highway 57D towards Tamaulipas are particularly dangerous…
Sinaloa: Mazatlan
is a major city/travel destination in Sinaloa…You should defer non-essential
travel to the state of Sinaloa except the city of Mazatlan where you should
exercise caution particularly late at night and in the early morning. One
of Mexico's
most powerful TCOs is based in the state of Sinaloa. With the exception
of Ciudad Juarez, since 2006 more homicides have
occurred in the state's capital city of Culiacan
than in any other city in Mexico…
Sonora: Nogales
and Puerto Peñasco are the major cities/travel destinations in Sonora…You
should defer non-essential travel between the city of Nogales and the cities of
Sonoyta and Caborca (which area also includes the smaller cities of Saric,
Tubutama, and Altar), defer non-essential travel to the eastern edge of the
State of Sonora which borders the State of Chihuahua (all points along that
border east of the northern city of Agua Prieta and the southern town of
Alamos), defer non-essential travel within the state south of the city of
Ciudad Obregon with the exception of travel to Alamos (traveling only during
daylight hours and using only the Highway 15 toll road, aka cuota, and Sonora State
Road 162), and exercise caution when visiting the coastal town of Puerto
Peñasco…
Tamaulipas: Matamoros, Nuevo Laredo, Reynosa, and Tampico
are the major cities/travel destinations in Tamaulipas…You should defer
non-essential travel to the state of Tamaulipas. All USG employees are:
prohibited from personal travel on Tamaulipas highways outside of Matamoros, Reynosa and Nuevo Laredo due to the risks posed by armed robbery and
carjacking; may not frequent casinos and adult entertainment establishments within
these cities; and in Matamoros
are subject to a midnight to 6 a.m. curfew. Be aware of the risks posed
by armed robbery and carjacking on state highways throughout Tamaulipas…
Zacatecas: You should
defer non-essential travel to the state of Zacatecas except the city of Zacatecas where you
should exercise caution. The regions of the state bordering Durango and Coahuila as
well as the cities of Fresnillo and Fresnillo-Sombrete and surrounding area are
particularly dangerous. The northwestern portion of the state of
Zacatecas has become notably dangerous and insecure. Robberies and
carjackings are occurring with increased frequency and both local authorities
and residents have reported a surge in observed TCO activity. This area
is remote, and local authorities are unable to regularly patrol it or quickly
respond to incidents that occur there. Gun battles between criminal
groups and authorities occur in the area of the state bordering the state of
Jalisco. There have also been reports of roadblocks and false checkpoints
on highways between the states of Zacatecas and Jalisco…
Southern Mexico
Aguascalientes:
You should defer non-essential travel to the areas of the state that border the
state of Zacatecas. The security situation along the Zacatecas border
continues to be unstable and gun battles between criminal groups and
authorities occur. Concerns include roadblocks placed by individuals
posing as police or military personnel and recent gun battles between rival
TCOs involving automatic weapons.
Colima: Manzanillo
is a major city/travel destination in Colima…You should exercise extreme
caution when traveling through the areas of the state of Colima that border the
state of Michoacán. You should also exercise caution when traveling at
night outside of cities in the remaining portions of the state. The
security situation along the Michoacán border continues to be unstable and gun
battles between criminal groups and authorities occur. Concerns include
roadblocks placed by individuals posing as police or military personnel and
recent gun battles between rival TCOs involving automatic weapons.
Guerrero: Acapulco,
Ixtapa, Zihuatanejo and Taxco are the major cities/travel destinations in
Guerrero…You should defer non-essential travel to the northwestern and southern
portions of the state (the area west and south of the town of Arcelia on the
border with Estado de Mexico in the north and the town of Tlapa near the border
with Oaxaca), except for the cities of Acapulco, Zihuatanejo, and Ixtapa.
In those cities, you should exercise caution and stay within tourist areas…
Jalisco Guadalajara and Puerto
Vallarta are the major cities/travel destinations in Jalisco…You should defer
non-essential travel to areas of the state that border the states of Michoacán
and Zacatecas. You should also exercise caution when traveling at night
outside of cities in the remaining portions of this state…
Michoacán: Morelia is a major city/travel destination in
Michoacán…You should defer non-essential travel to the state of Michoacán
except the cities of Morelia
and Lázaro Cardenas where you should exercise caution. Flying into Morelia and Lázaro
Cardenas, or driving to Lázaro Cardenas via highway 200 from
Zihuatanejo/Ixtapa, are the recommended methods of travel. Attacks on
Mexican government officials, law enforcement and military personnel, and other
incidents of TCO-related violence, have occurred throughout Michoacán.
Morelos: Cuernavaca is a major
city/travel destination in Morelos…You should exercise caution in the state of
Morelos due to the unpredictable nature of TCO violence. Numerous
incidents of narcotics-related violence have occurred in the city of Cuernavaca, a popular destination for U.S. students.
Nayarit: You should
defer non-essential travel to all areas of the state of Nayarit north of the
city of Tepic as well as to the cities of Tepic and Xalisco. The
security situation north of Tepic
and in these cities is unstable and travelers could encounter roadblocks or
shootouts between rival criminals…
Veracruz:
You should exercise caution when traveling in the state of Veracruz. In recent months, the state
of Veracruz
has seen an increase in violence among rival criminal organizations. In
response, the Government of Mexico has sent additional military and federal police
to the state to assist State security forces in implementing operation
“Veracruz Seguro” (Secure Veracruz) that focuses on combating organized crime.
Analysis: Mexican
Defense Minister Guillermo Galvan Galva’s statement that some sectors of the
country’s public security have been completely overrun represents a rare and
honest appraisal of what is becoming an increasingly threatening situation to
Mexican state sovereignty [3]. To place this threat in perspective, the new
U.S. Department of State travel advisory for Mexico suggests that the entire
Northern half of Mexico is now witnessing criminal insurgencies of such
intensity that all of the states within it (except for Baja California Sur)
have travel warnings for U.S. citizens. Southern Mexico is faring marginally
better with travel advisories for Aguascalientes, Colima, Guerrero, Jalisco,
Michoacán, Morelos, Nayarit, and Veracruz while no travel advisories exist for
Campeche, Chiapas, Estado de Mexico, Guanajuato, Hidalgo, Mexico City (also
known as the Federal District), Oaxaca, Puebla, Queretaro, Quintana Roo,
Tabasco, Tlaxcala, and Yucatan.
To place the U.S. Department of State advisory in geographic context,
see the following map of Mexican states with advisories labeled in red:
Mexico City was once considered one of the most dangerous places in the
country but increasingly is considered a bastion of stability in an otherwise
troubled nation— with over 50,000 deaths attributed to the criminal
insurgencies since December 2006. This is to be expected as the political
elites and centralized government have expended resources to increase security
of the capitol city and surrounding territories.
Of interest are the contradictory trends mentioned in the State
Department document. These were picked up by the Washington Post and other major newspapers [4]:
The advisory does note that “millions of U.S.
citizens safely visit Mexico
each year for study, tourism, and business, including more than 150,000 who
cross the border every day.” Still, it says, U.S.
travelers should be aware of Mexico’s
efforts against “TCOs [transnational crime organizations] which engage in
narcotics trafficking and other lawful activities” throughout the country.
Mexico
is a country of 110 million people, so the odds of running into trouble are
low. The number of U.S.
citizens reported to the State Department as murdered in Mexico
increased from 35 in 2007 to 120 in 2011.
Even the Mexican economy as defined by GDP, while only expected to grow
at 3.2% in 2012 (as opposed to 3.8% in 2011), is seemingly doing well with
business sentiments appearing optimistic in January 2012 [5].
What these contradictory trends suggest is that the spreading criminal
insurgencies taking place in Mexico,
while threatening to the legitimate federal government, are not necessarily bad
for the overall functioning of the Mexican economy [6]. Similar trends, on a
micro level, were noted in Miami, Florida during the Cocaine Wars of the 1970s and 1980s
when much of the Miami
skyline was built. Ultimately, the illicit economy injected hundreds of
millions of dollars, if not more, into the formal economy. The same process is
occurring in Mexico except that is taking place yearly at the tens of billions
of dollars level and, as an aggregate over time, amounts to hundreds of
billions of dollars.
Still, this brings us back to Defense Minister Guillermo Galvan Galva’s
statement— Mexican national security is seriously threatened. Or, more
accurately, the sovereign state is seriously threatened and is increasingly
being decoupled from the globalized economy to which Mexico has structurally reformed
itself and acceded to NAFTA and other international trade agreements. Terms used
to identify such a scenario—depending on where it exists on a continuum of who
is in charge—are Phillip Bobbitt’s ‘market state’, John Robb’s ‘hollow state’,
and my own ‘criminal state’ construct.
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