It has long been known that oil is our all. When the world price of a barrel increases, the prosperity of the country also increases: Export deliveries of gas become more expensive, the state gets surpluses with which to fill the reserve funds, etc. It would seem that this is good for everyone, and there are no problems to be seen on the horizon... But there is a problem: In recent times, the dependence between expensive oil and prosperity of the country, which had taken years to build, is suddenly beginning to falter.
Not too long ago, the head of Minfin [Ministry of Finance], Aleksey Kudrin, complained that, even back in 2007, at oil prices of 70 dollars per barrel, the Russian budget had a surplus, but now, with a predicted price of 75 dollars, a deficit is inevitable. Meanwhile, Minfin has already estimated the country's budget for the next 3-year period. Its specialists proceed from the fact that, in 2011, the average price of oil will comprise 75 dollars per barrel, in 2012 it will be 78 dollars, and in 2013 - 79 dollars. That is, the planned budget deficit for the current year will comprise 3.6 per cent of the GDP [gross domestic product], or slightly over R1.8 trillion.
In order to cover the shortfall in the treasury which will arise, plans call for entering the international loan market. This is fine, as long as the market situation allows us to do so without any particular losses.
However, the country had achieved a "proficit" - that is, a surplus of income over expenditures - even at a price of 40 dollars per barrel. But today, there is talk of the fact that the budget deficit will not be overcome even in the next few years, no matter how hard we may try. And the stored reserve - the Reserve Fund - may be spent rather quickly, in the next year or two.
At the same time, investments - the guarantee of successful and stable development - continue to decline, despite all of the world market conditions that are favourable to Russia. While in 2006, at 67 dollars per barrel, the influx of capital comprised over 40bn dollars, and in 2007, when a barrel cost an average of 75 dollars, 81bn dollars came into the economy, in 2010 - at oil prices of 85 dollars per barrel, we are seeing an outflow. Which the Central Bank and Rosstat [State Statistical Service] appraise at approximately 38bn dollars. This year, oil prices have already reached the mark of 100 dollars per barrel, but predictions for influx of capital and growth of the country's GDP remain sooner in the minus zone.
The main reason why the situation is drastically changing in the negative direction for us is the collapse of investment hopes. While several years ago, when the authorities spoke of undertaking a radical struggle against corruption, revising the imperfect judicial system, overcoming bureaucratic barriers in the way of business, protecting it against various encroachments, etc., investors believed these promises, today the situation is the opposite. Unfortunately, no radical changes took place, and none are taking place, and investors feel this most acutely.
On the other hand, the authorities need not trouble themselves by building plans: In and of itself, oil - which, again at the predictions of analysts, will continue to go up in price in the foreseeable future - guarantees an influx of additional capital. Which, in turn, can always be spent, among other things, on fulfilment of social obligations that are burdensome for the budget. Especially since the elections are just around the corner, and there will surely be a temptation to give the population another ration of benefits or subsidies. However, we may also direct part of the funds into state investments - especially since there are more than enough places to put them: The APEC-2012 forum, the 2014 Olympics, the World Cup soccer championship in 2018, etc. But the problem is that state funds are not always spent for their direct intended purpose and do not always go to those sectors that push t he country's economic growth upward.
The continuing growth of state expenditures - that is the reason why all of the supplemental oil profits are burning up. And the growth of oil prices is a temptation to reject the implementation of necessary reforms and to fulfil previously made promises. We do not need to worry too much about energy effectiveness, and we can leave other projects until later - until the next crisis hits.
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