As per an announcement of the Union Election Commission of 18 November 2010 the regime backed Union Solidarity and Development party (USDP) won 883 of 1154 parliamentary seats, or 76.5 percent. The National Unity Party came second with 63 seats. The Shan Nationalities Democratic Party (SNDP) took 57 seats and the Rakhine Nationalities Development Party 35 seats. The breakaway faction of the National League for Democracy (NLD) of Aug San Suu Ki called the National Democratic Force (NDF) could win only 16 seats as also the All Mon Regional Democracy Party which won 16 seats. A small number of independent candidates have also won in this election. While most countries condemned the elections as far from free and fair, ASEAN described the elections as “conducive and transparent" in the recent foreign ministers conference in Indonesia in the second week of January 2011.
The elections turned out to be more of an anticlimax. Despite the boycott of the National League for Democracy (NLD) and some other opposition parties, 37 parties did take part in the elections knowing fully well that they are contesting against heavy odds and still wanted to avail the opportunity to grab a few seats
The USDP as well as some of the opposition (including ethnic) parties have filed law suits, accusing the winners of some malpractices in the elections, which are yet be decided.
Aung San Suu Kyi
Aung San Suu Kyi was released on 13 November 2010 after her last stint of detention from May 2003. In her own words “no conditions have been imposed on her freedom”. She has been under house arrest for 15 of the last 21 years.
Since her release she has said too many things and revealed too much about her future plans. She has reached out to the masses particularly the younger generation, met party leaders, diplomats, the media, some of the ethnic leaders and even leaders of the breakaway faction of her party which contested the elections. She has also been speaking to some dignitaries in the west over the phone. She has invited the military leaders for a dialogue which is still to materialise. In this connection she said in an interview “for me hope is the desire to try. I believe I can only hope for something if I have tried to achieve it. I will continue to make an effort with this belief in mind.”
The main issues that she is harping upon are – national reconciliation, dialogue with the military leaders, a nationwide conference with ethnic groups and non-violent revolution.
In a rare gesture, the military junta allowed her son to come and meet her at Yangon.
Adam Mynott of BBC writes that the “most compelling reason behind her release is a combination of all the consequences of not letting her go: Turmoil at home, fury abroad, further erosion of Burma’s international status and the absolute certainty that the only legacy for the ageing Gen Than Shwe would be the ‘Aung San Suu Kyi issue.”
She is making renewed efforts to get her party, the NLD, as a legal political party by making fresh appeals to the highest court though knowing the junta’s influence over the courts, her efforts are unlikely to succeed.
Sanctions
There is a debate, in the international media and in the Burmese media in exile, whether the sanctions imposed by the west should be lifted, consequent to the general elections and Aung San Suu Kyi’s release.
Aung San Suu Kyi herself expressed that “I am ready to reconsider my support of sanctions if it’s for the benefit of all us.”
Some feel that the junta had released her with this aim in view. Reports indicate that some vested interests in the business circles of the west are keen to do business with Myanmar and that they are lobbying for it. The pro democracy opposition is against the lifting of the sanctions as it will still not benefit the masses and will only enrich the junta and its cronies. There is also a view that the best way to rein in China from dominating over Myanmar, is to lift the sanctions.
Stanley A Weiss writes that Washington’s Burma policy has isolated Washington and not Burma. “It is time to engage Myanmar as the real issue in Myanmar lies in the business sector. This is where Yankee ingenuity can lead by example.”
ASEAN, echoing the call from five ethnic parties, has expressed in the recent foreign ministers conference in Indonesia that it would like to see “the immediate or early removal of sanctions that have been applied against Myanmar by some countries” (BBC-17 January 2011)
Ethnic Groups
Some ethnic parties that contested the elections have done well. SNDP emerged as the third largest political party with 57 seats while the Rakhine, Mon, Chin, Pa-o and Karen parties have fared well to get a sizeable representation in the assemblies of their respective areas.
Six ethnic parties that had won some seats in the elections are getting together in Yangon to nominate an ethnic representative for the post of a vice-president. Of the two vice-presidents one will be from ethnic groups.
On the day of the elections (07 November 2010) fighting erupted between the 5th Brigade of Democratic Karen Buddhist Army (DKBA) and the government troops in and around Myawaddy close to the Thailand border. The fighting is continuing till date with intermittent breaks.
The armed ethnic groups are under pressure for over an year to transform into bodyguards and the deadline has been postponed a number of times. The military, which had suspended the operations for the elections, has been seen sending armed reinforcements to locations adjacent to areas held by ethnic armed groups who have refused to transform into border guards. In retaliation, the ethnic groups are getting together in some informal alliances for taking on the junta in case of attacks.
The cease fire agreements, which are more military in nature than political, varied in content for different groups and mostly oral are not being honoured by both sides. The military junta is exerting more pressure before passing the buck on to the government to be newly formed.
The ethnic groups are asking for a second Panglong type of conference for ushering in a federal system to give them more autonomy. Though Aung San Suu Kyi has also concurred with this view, she feels that without the junta’s participation such a conference may be of no avail.
Most analysts are of the view that without an amicable political solution for the aspirations and struggle of the ethnic groups, permanent peace or democracy cannot be restored in Myanmar.
Conscription
An AP Report indicates that conscription is likely to be introduced in Myanmar under law No. 27/2010 approved by the SPDC on November 4, 2010. The law which has not been made public is likely to be proclaimed in the near future and will come into effect.
Under this law:
“Every male between the age of 18 and 45 and females between 18 and 35 may be drafted to serve for two years, which could be increased to five years in times of national emergencies. Both sexes are required to register at 18”.
“Those who fail to report for military service could get three years in prison, a fine or both, and those who deliberately inflict injury upon oneself to avoid conscription could be imprisoned for up to five years.”
Some other media reports have given details on technical professionals to be inducted, people exempted from conscription and other procedural issues.
Some analysts are of the view that the junta is taking recourse to conscription as the required number of people are not forthcoming to join the army and that they have other problems in recruiting such as desertion, postings in difficult areas etc..
Ethnic armed groups fear that the enactment of this law will create more tension between the junta and the ethnic armed groups.
“One reason many people are opposed to the draft, he said, is public contempt for the armed forces, which for decades has been the key to keeping the country's deeply unpopular rulers in power.”-- The Irrawaddy 10, January 2011.
Convening of the new Parliament
Myanmar’s parliament, with the members elected in the November 2010 elections, will be convened on January 31, 2011, according to an official announcement. The announcement has indicated that both upper and lower houses as well as the 14 regional/ state parliaments will be convened on the same day, simultaneously. Appointees for the 25% reserved seats for the military in all the three houses will also be attending the sessions. Media reports indicate that these military officials had undergone some special training on administrative, legal and procedural matters. The regime backed Union Solidarity Development Party (USDP) had reportedly conducted a number of meetings at the capital Naypyitaw for its key personnel for working out the strategy to be adopted in the new parliament.
The Strategy of military junta
Senior general Than Shwe is keeping his options open and is revealing only those plans essential for the new parliament to be convened and the government to be formed.
The Irrawaddy (January,14, 2011) reports that Senior General Than Shwe has decided to take over as the President, with his key men appointed as the vice-president, the chairman of the union parliament, the commander-in-chief of the armed forces and the ministers of crucial ministries such as defence, finance etc. This report is in contradiction to the earlier reports that he is likely to step down due to ill health and will perhaps retain only the post of the commander-in-chief of the armed forces.
In the end of November 2010, a law was enacted which restricts the freedom of speech of the new parliamentarians. The law is too broad based and stipulates that speeches of parliamentarians should not endanger national security, the unity of the country or violate the constitution. It stipulates punishments for staging protests in the parliament and unlawful entry into the parliament. If applied strictly, there is no way the party in power could be criticised or hauled up for its mistakes by those parliamentarians opposed to the regime
On 10 January, 17 new laws were enacted and details were made available in the form of a booklet. These laws pertain to “state seal, election of president and vice presidents, union government, region or state government, self-administered region or zone government, Nay Pyi Taw Council, constitution-related tribunal, state flag, state anthem, union parliament, house of representatives, house of nationalities, region or state parliament, union judiciary, union attorney-general and union auditor-general”.
In another surprising gesture, three ethnic parties who had fared well in the elections, have been permitted to start their own trading companies, which is construed as a shrewd move by the junta for seeking the cooperation of these ethnic parties in the new parliament.
As per a report in the Biweekly Eleven (a business news magazine), the military junta is privatising 90% of the state industries by the end of this year. Analysts are of the view that this move is more politically motivated than economic and will benefit those close to the government who will be buying these industries. Sean Turnell, a reputed Australian economist said “the motivation for them is making sure this wealth remains in their hands regardless of what happens to the political situation”—BBC – 14 January 2011.
The military junta seems to be adopting a policy of wait and see on Suu Kyi’s activities since her release. She has been given a free hand so far in expressing her views or in meeting people. She continues to have a big following and draws huge crowds for her meetings. She is being consulted by all opposition groups for deciding their strategy in the new parliament. The military junta has not responded to her call for a dialogue but the relationship may turn to be confrontational if her moves are perceived as threats to the well being of the new military dominated government.
The military is adopting a hardline approach with the ethnic groups which may result in a Kokang type attack (August 2009) on one or more of the minor ethnic groups not willing to be transformed into Border Guards. Borders will continue to be unstable.
News analyses
Despite all the misgivings, a new civil government, through dominated and controlled by the military, will be in place by end of January 2011.
The pro-democracy opposition which participated in the election is seriously handicapped for being a minority and saddled with many restrictions imposed by fresh laws enacted recently.
The resumption of civil war is looming large with ethnic groups refusing to transform into body guards and planning joint action in case of further pressure from the military junta.
International attention is more on Suu Kyi and the pro-democratic opposition ignoring the ethnic minority issues and the danger of the resumption of a civil war.
The redeeming feature in the new set up will be the creation of political space for the ethnic groups in their areas which will help their culture, language, economic development and participation in the governance. This is but a small beginning. Managing the ethnic groups with 40 percent of the population and 52 percent of the land area will be the biggest challenge for the new government. There is no move for a second Panglong conference either
Once the parliament settles down and the new government is functional, some concessions for the opposition and the common man can be expected if the military junta feels its hold on power is stable and unaffected even after the structural changes.
Aung San Suu Kyi, though free to move around and express her views, has not been able to make the military junta initiate any move for national reconciliation or for dialogue with the opposition and the ethnic groups. Till now she has adopted a cautious and conciliatory approach. Without a political base she has an uphill task in accomplishing her mission.
The present political situation is at a crossroads, with scope for positive developments, though the military will continue to dominate the scene.
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