Egypt: Army envisages post Mubarak scenario

As crowds are gathering in central Cairo for the fifth consecutive day, sources in Egyptian army, security services and political circles told ESISC they are “pessimistic”. They told us they don’t think the promises delivered this night by President Hosni Mubarak will be sufficient to disarm the street and calm contestation.

“The regime is not weak, they say and it could resist but it is important to avoid slaughter”.  The army is not the police, we don’t think they will accept to kill hundreds of people. And we don’t think even, President Mubarak will order this. The game today is to exit the crisis by concrete offers which materialize very quickly”. 

Sources are quite pessimistic on this particular issue: “ We cannot reverse 20 or 30 years of stagnation in a week.  And we think the people will not accept other promises without seeing immediate improvement…So the point is clear: will we see a weak opposition with, say, dozen of thousand s of protesters in the streets, which is nothing in comparison to the 80 millions Egyptians or will we see hundreds of thousand or millions marching against Mubarak. In this case, it will be extremely difficult for him to still keeping control”.

Sources concluded: “we understood President Obama statement, this night as a sign the U.S. still continue to, support the regime. But they will not accept bloodbath. The point for the American is to find a solution which guarantees the international status quo regarding our engagement, peace process with Israel and alignment on American policy. With Mubarak or without Mubarak…”

Esisc  understood from those contact that the Egyptian army is army – which is respected and seen as a legitimate actor in the political life- is thinking to an “internal solution” and envisage “post-Mubarak scenarios…”