Returning to the UBL poll, here are the side-by-side results of question #2, “What will be the chief consequence of UBL’s death for the U.S. & its Western allies?”. As mentioned in previous posts, the initial justification for entering Afghanistan in 2001 was the destruction of al Qaeda and killing or capture of its leader; UBL. The below chart shows the open poll results (from this website, 27 voters) and compares it with the internal poll results (CT experts I queried, 21 voters). Again, there is likely some duplication of respondents who answered both polls.
To my surprise, most respondents in both polls selected “Status Quo-No Change.” A slightly larger percentage of respondents to the internal poll (CT Experts) selected “Refocus on Counterterrorism Operations (Biden plan).”
Again, I wanted to further examine internal poll respondents opinions based on their current professional duties. Unlike in question #1, academics selected the “Status Quo- No Change” option at a much higher level than other categories of respondents (7 of 9 academics chose this option). Why might academics think UBL’s death would be less significant for the U.S. and its allies than other groups? I’m not sure. It could just be a coincidence since this is a rather small sample size.
For question #2, I disagreed with the majority in both polls. My decision teetered between “Refocus on CT” and “Withdrawal of NATO”. I definitely think UBL’s death will sharply decrease American and Western support for the Afghanistan campaign. However, I think all NATO elements have already decided to significantly decrease their Afghanistan commitments in the next two years. Ultimately, I think UBL’s death will bring a rapid shift in U.S. focus on counterterrorism operations vice counterinsurgency/nation building efforts. Even if UBL is still at large this time next year (2012), I think the U.S. will begin slowly transitioning to a more CT than COIN focus.
To my surprise, most respondents in both polls selected “Status Quo-No Change.” A slightly larger percentage of respondents to the internal poll (CT Experts) selected “Refocus on Counterterrorism Operations (Biden plan).”
Again, I wanted to further examine internal poll respondents opinions based on their current professional duties. Unlike in question #1, academics selected the “Status Quo- No Change” option at a much higher level than other categories of respondents (7 of 9 academics chose this option). Why might academics think UBL’s death would be less significant for the U.S. and its allies than other groups? I’m not sure. It could just be a coincidence since this is a rather small sample size.
For question #2, I disagreed with the majority in both polls. My decision teetered between “Refocus on CT” and “Withdrawal of NATO”. I definitely think UBL’s death will sharply decrease American and Western support for the Afghanistan campaign. However, I think all NATO elements have already decided to significantly decrease their Afghanistan commitments in the next two years. Ultimately, I think UBL’s death will bring a rapid shift in U.S. focus on counterterrorism operations vice counterinsurgency/nation building efforts. Even if UBL is still at large this time next year (2012), I think the U.S. will begin slowly transitioning to a more CT than COIN focus.
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