Thursday, December 30, 2010

Pakistan : China’s Israel fast becoming its next North Korea?

A Chinese diplomat  confronted by a US counterpart about China’s  support for Pakistan regardless of the circumstances is reported to have said, sarcastically : "Pakistan is our Israel".[i] Recent events however suggest that China might be inadvertently making  Pakistan a clone of its other client state, North Korea.
 In their most recent meeting in Pakistan  Chinese and Pakistani leaders reaffirmed that alliance by announcing trade and investment deals worth about USD 30 billion as well as cooperation in a variety of areas including satellite space projects[ii].  Chinese Prime Minister Wen Jiabao who led the delegation, said in his address to Pakistan's parliament , a first by a Chinese leader:

"Pakistan was at the front of the international fight against terrorism and made big sacrifices and important contributions, which were obvious to all,"
"The international community should affirm that and give great support as well as respect the path of development chosen by Pakistan,"
He added that in the fight against terrorism  specific religions or ethnic groups should not be the focus  but instead  the "root factors breeding terrorism."
The Chinese Government’s  Xinhua News Agency re-enforced  the Chinese position when it reported:
Pakistan's support for the U.S.- led war on terror has left nearly 1,600 people dead in various terrorist attacks and counter-attacks so far this year, next only to the flood death toll of some 2,000 in the South Asian nation.
"Pakistan has lost 43 billion dollars in the past nine years," Foreign Minister Shah Mahmood Qureshi told a ministerial meeting of Friends of Democratic Pakistan in July in Islamabad when assessing the cumulative economic losses inflicted on Pakistan as a frontline state in the war against terrorism[iii].
While Wen desires that terrorism be not associated within any particular religion or ethnic group, it was Pakistan’s own Zulfikar Ali Bhutto who said:
“There's a Hindu bomb, a Jewish bomb and a Christian bomb….. There must be an Islamic bomb”
 It was then Bhutto  appointee  Abdul Qadeer  Khan, former head and father of Pakistan’s nuclear weapons programme who made that programme  a commercial concern by providing expertise and parts to  Libya,North Korea and Iran[iv]. Few ,if any, believe his confession that he acted on his own and without official sanction.
Further,  there is little to suggest that the Pakistan has significantly departed from its  position on jihadists as enumerated by  General Hameed Gul, the former head of the Inter-Services Intelligence Service (ISI) :
 
"These jihadi groups and Jihad is the guarantor of our peaceful existence. These are the insurance policy of our peaceful existence.”
[v] 
 While Hameed Gul’s statements were made in the context of  Pakisatan’s relations with India the Mumbai terrorist attacks of 2008[vi]  in which a number of non-Indian nationals were murdered demonstrate graphically the consequences for the international community. As well  Pakistan has been the training ground for the perpetrators of terrorist attacks in the UK, US and Israel, to name a few. The ISI is part of the Pakistani military  establishment  which includes directly and indirectly substantial commercial  interests. These have been valued by one analyst to be worth some USD 20 billion[vii].
 The recently announced Chinese investment in Pakistan will enrich these businesses, and hence the military establishment and the ISI. It follows that there will  be an increase in resources to fund their activities in support of jihad and jihadists.
The business of selling nuclear technology is too profitable for it to be halted, especially when there is access to greater funding. On the other hand, conventional jihadi terrorism like the 2008 Mumbai attacks may not have an apparent commercial motive ,but the reported  involvement of Indian mafiosi like Dawood Ibrahim and his D-Company in ISI operations executed by the Lashkar-e-Toiba suggests a convergence of  ISI jihadist and commercial activities[viii].
The Pakistani economy is weak, and the recent floods have worsened the Government’s financial position to the point of near insolvency[ix].
Meanwhile  Pakistan ranks tenth, nine places above even North Korea, in the Failed State Index 2010[x]. The conditions are therefore present in  Pakistan  for the adaptation of the North Korean model where terrorism and the sale of nuclear arms and technology provide a lucrative living for members of the ruling and military establishment in an otherwise impoverished country. While North Korea uses the threat of nuclear arms to bring the rest of the world to the negotiating table, Pakistan has also in its arsenal  jihadist forces .


[i] China: 'Pakistan is our Israel' ;
Thalif Deen 28 Oct 2010 14:56 GMT .Located at
http://english.aljazeera.net/indepth/features/2010/10/20101028135728235512.html
[ii] China-Pakistan bonds strengthened; Al-Jazeera; 19 Dec 2010 11:52 GMT Located at  http://english.aljazeera.net/news/asia/2010/12/20101219102837528600.html
[iii] Yearender: War on terror costs Pakistan heavily, 2010-12-15 , Xinhuanet; http://en.chinaxinjiang.cn/01/02/201012/t20101215_120176.htm
[iv]A.Q. Khan;  http://www.globalsecurity.org/wmd/world/pakistan/khan.htm
[v]Takbeer, 28 august 2002, on page 17; report by Aslam Awan; an interview with Lt Gen Hameed Gul, former Director-General of the Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI). Translated from Urdu
[vi] Dawood Ibrahim and the LeT: Jihadists , the Mumbai underworld, and terrorism; by Ganesh Sahathevan.Located at  http://www.terrorfinance.org/the_terror_finance_blog/2008/11/dawood-ibrahim-and-the-let-jihadists-the-mumbai-underworld-and-terrorism.html
[vii]Economic Growth, Clad in Military Garb, Stephen Kotkin’s  New York Times review of  Ayesha Siddiqa’s “Military Inc.”  ; November 4 2007.Located at http://www.nytimes.com/2007/11/04/business/04shelf.html
[viii] Lashkar takes over D-Company; S Balakrishnan, TNN, Mar 28, 2008, 12.31am IST;Located at http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/File_Lashkar_takes_over_D-Company/articleshow/2905260.cms. See also Note vi
[ix] Floods Hit Pakistan Economy;David Roman;WSJ,25 Augsut 2010;http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748703447004575448773669357704.html
[x] Failed State Index 2010; http://www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2010/06/21/2010_failed_states_index_interactive_map_and_rankings

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